Topic: Will there be a rally in September? (Read 4436 times)

Not to mention the money flowing in through the fund....

ETF is not priced in. Neither is possibility of ebay accepting coin. In fact even Overclock and Newegg are no factored in (very much).

The majority of investors actually have no idea what is really going on in BTC-land and just hopped on to the bandwagon without much thought.

The real driver of price is simply determined by the following equation:

(N - O) * P

N = New users coming in
O = Old users leaving
P = Price velocity over past 30 days (can go either up or down)

It is that multiplication of P that leads to the pattern of exponential growth bubbles followed by corrections. It is unavoidable, it is inevitable, it is extremely profitable for those that understand this simple equation.

For the last few months N has been low enough that N - O was a negative number, this was boosted by all the people that had joined in a short time meaning that O was also a lot larger than normal. This is what led to the recent downward price movement.

The good news is that now O is becoming a lot smaller and N is (slowly) starting to rise again. Once the upward velocity kicks in the positive feedback loop will be re-ignited.

how is the etf already priced in? wouldn't the news and publicity from the fund going public potentially be a driver of bitcoin price?

Would this be the first time that bitcoin has lost value in a calendar year?

Well, it's actually positive to see so many lose hope on a bubble in the short term. That means it's all the more possible. For now, things look quite bleak to me. I think the bottom is a considerable ways off and that we'll have a shot at much better entry than $400s.

If I'm right, it's actually quite good -- lower price = better coin distribution. And cheap coins for us. Bring on $300 bitcoins!

Rally on Christmas would be a nice present.

As much as I would love to see a rally I am not too sure we may before the end of the year. We may see a slight increase but nothing too drastic that we could call it a rally I don't feel.

At this moment I'm leaning towards yes.  I'd expect it to be later in the month but yea I think we will likely see some rally in the coming weeks.  I've just now become an uber bull and I'm liking it. 

The start to September hasn't been good. 

deppends how bad things around the world will be.
There are some countries starting to have economic troubles too.

So we may have a chance

September is Summer time vacation. Users will probably sell some of the holding to pay for vacation.

Right now there arent any high probability pathways in existance for the bitcoin price. That is to say, it's not really clear. Sentiment is probably slightly positive on balance and it seems there may be some room for another correction, but most of the weak hands seem to have sold out now.

It's very possible we are close to the bottom now and preparing ourselves for the next big bull market.

Having said that, there is also a strong possibility that bitcoin may go down more.

The future path of bitcoin is now in the hands of the politicians. Bitcoin has hit the mainstream and is now (for all intensive purposes) a standard financial asset, that is traded amoungst professional traders and fund managers. It is not going to get more mainstream than that until we see a big change in the wider economic circumstances.

That said, the price may go up, it may go down over the next few months but, barring any "black swan" events (which actually are now less black swan than you might think), I can't see it moving up alot if at all.

There are circumstances however under which the price could move down, namely if people loose faith in bitcoin, or dump coins because they are no longer getting rich quick. However as said before, I think we have just been through that period of shaking out.

In summary, no significant moves predicted yet in either direction for the time being but stay tuned, with eyes focused on the macro situation. That's where new drivers of the price may emerge.

PS. Whether a deflationary or inflationary trend takes hold, then bitcoin prices may go up. However in the case of a deflation first, prices may initially decline, to be followed by a subsequent increase during an inflationary period. There is a chance that with the Eurozone announcing QE, we are now at the end of the deflationary phase and beginning of the inflationary phase that so many pundits have been forecasting since the 2008 financial crash.

TLDR;

short-term BTC price prognosis: weak bullish.

Well, let's hope for GABI to get the train going, but I wouldn't hold my hopes up just too high now. If it really is already priced in and the market won't move significantly, we may even go further down as a result of everyone being disappointed!

Yes, but chances are it will be in november.

The ETF news is old hat, unlikely to drive a new spike
Prob will need strong news from the regulatory side to move up from here

agreed

There is a widely expected outcome of being listed as a ETF and the price might already shown the build in sentiment.

Should it be listed, the upside will be limited due to the expected outcome. If it didn't get the permission to be listed, the price will plunge due to the surprising outcome.

The government should clamp down on insider trading in bitcoins as well. 

Looking at Bitstamp price at 3/5m intervals, it looks like the price is unnaturally pegged at 500, bid / ask sides are almost equal.

Whenever the launch date of the ETF is announced or the permission to do so is granted a spike will appear in your graphs (it will probably start a few days early due to people with insider knowledge buying).