Alik Bakhshi
Will there be a war? Russia is concentrating an unprecedentedly large amount of military force near the borders with Ukraine, and without notifying NATO about this, although it was obliged to do this in advance by the treaty. The seriousness of Putin's intentions to attack Ukraine is also indicated by the transfer to the Black Sea of the Caspian flotilla in full force, including the latest frigates, on board which there are "caliber" missiles. It seems that Putin decided to complete what he had begun to the end, namely to tear away the so-called Little Russia, including Odessa, and reach the border with the self-proclaimed Transnistrian Republic, and possibly completely deprive Ukraine of the status of a state. The only deterrent factor in Russian aggression is the reaction of Washington, which pledged to be the guarantor of the independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine for its renunciation of nuclear weapons (1). America supports Ukraine at the diplomatic level, which is certainly not enough. Ukraine needs modern weapons to counter Russia, and Putin is in a rush to start a war before the West has transferred enough weapons to Ukraine. It may well be that Biden went for a trick, unexpectedly offering Putin to meet in the coming months, which can be considered an attempt to postpone indefinitely a large-scale invasion of the Russian army from three directions in order to have time to transfer weapons to Ukraine.
The question arises about the likelihood of a direct military clash between the United States and Russia. I suppose it may well be. The fact is that hostilities will be conducted on the territory of a third party and, naturally, without the use of nuclear weapons, which will only happen if the war directly affects the territory of Russia or the countries of the NATO bloc. In principle, a clash between a NATO country and Russia has already taken place in Syria and Libya. Moreover, the Turks even shot down a Russian bomber that flew into Turkey (2), but there was no military response from Russia, everything ended with tomatoes and waving hands. By the way, Turkey can take part in the war along with America on the side of Ukraine.
1. To the obligations of President Biden and his country.
https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/64453.html2. The Russians have finished badly.
https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/26077.html 04/14/2021