Topic: Will you invest in Chain-Bet.com bankroll? - page 2. (Read 4116 times)

Is this being backed by Roger Ver? Would add to Investors getting involved in my opinion if he is.

I'm talking about the server seed. That's supposed to be secret until after the game or roll. But it has a hash published beforehand so people can verify that the secret did not change.

BitcoinBetting uses a block hash. The game I had in mind would also use a future block hash. No one can predict the future block hash, but there is the argument that the site operator colluding with a miner (or is a miner himself) can discard a block that would result in a loss, with no guarantee that the next block would result in anything better, it could also be a loss.

But that only works if they also know the server seed, which only the site operator would know.

Using a block hash alone is not wise. Offering a 50 BTC prize against the result of hmac-sha512(future_block_hash, secret_that_only_I_know) ... that's a gamble even for a miner. I'm pretty sure they'd take the 99% chance of "winning" 12.5 BTC now (for publishing a valid block), than the potential or chance (of unknown percentage) to win 50 BTC.

They have a chance of not losing if they find a block that wouldn't agree. They don't really have a chance of winning. That's not the same thing.

A miner with enough hash power to rig a game often enough has more important things to play with than gambling in a bitcoin casino for a chance to win 50 BTC, giving up the block reward of 12.5 BTC which he has in his hands right now.

Could u please elaborate which secret u r talking about here?

You need to work on building your reputation first. Sites where I invest re at least 3 years old, lots of users and run by reputable members. You do understand the way an ordinary investor thinks. What if I send you my coins and close down the shop tomorrow and run away? What would be your response to that?

Wow. I got quoted. Thank you.

Unless someone can convince me not to offer 50 BTC prizes for a blockchain based game together with a secret only I know ... (if I am the operator of the site.) Or the issue of investors being cheated. Without resorting to 30 minute calculations.

I agree that it isn't unreasonable, but I think they should just add a house edge (ie 1% - x15.84 payout). The fee hurts small players the most, like DarkStar mentioned


I don't think large players would mind that much, and will attract more small players to come. Making them pay a fee on returns is still fine.

Sending the funds to your hot wallet and to other players should be paid by those players, and you. Definitely not by the person who lost money. Take luckyb.it for example - they pay 0.0002BTC for transaction fees, and charge the player 0.0001BTC if they win. I don't expect you to cover the fees to send funds back, but luckyb.it doesn't charge you fees for losing bets. Really dumb model imo.

You don't need to forward it to your hot wallet, nor do you need to pay winning funds with micro transactions. What Cloudbet does (not an on chain game, but still...) is they consolidate a bunch of small inputs from time to time, to form larger inputs at less busy hours where they can get it confirmed with no fee or as little as 0.0001BTC for 10+ inputs.

AFAIK, no gambling sites require you to pay BTC if you lose to forward the BTC to other hot wallet addresses and to forward it to other winners.

Your assumption that mining fee is not required for a lost bet is incorrect. Let us see how in your example...

First this address was created - https://blockchain.info/address/1J9uBy5ba1pqtXfYfxzzAxK74qUK1sAfo1

User sent the Tx to this address - https://blockchain.info/tx/981f3689d2ef7e8f477948ea17287eb90472ab189d3c803cb05478b076a3bb64 (User paid the mining fee of 0.000117 BTC)

This address forwarded the fee to the hot wallet - https://blockchain.info/tx/156a3a82fd231097ea41955f8e5f9c122c055f392179507209ba6404de96f927 (House paid the mining fee of 0.0001 BTC)

So, just to accept a lost bet, house already paid 0.0001 BTC. Now remains another 0.0001 BTC from the Tx processing fee of 0.0002 BTC they mentioned in their FAQ.

Whenever, a winning bet is paid, all these small bets are accumulated and paid from the hot wallet. This increases the Tx size and hence the mining fee required for quick confirmation. So, let us have a look at the latest winning bet right now, i.e. Bet #537.

Wining Tx: https://blockchain.info/tx/0e6af2f890bac066d349c2b56fff45aa62ddac0fd8b2a5706e5d5212ea5295d9

Tx fee: 0.0002 BTC

For this, bet 0.0001 BTC was already with the house from the deposit of the winner of Bet #537. But, who'll pay the rest of 0.0001 BTC? That is taken from the loser of Bet #530. That is how it is compensated.

This is why I said 0.0002 BTC is used in mining fee. I hope it makes sense now.

No, it's a "transaction processing fee". Look at Bet #530 or any other bet that lost.


The bet amount is 0.0006BTC, and the transaction that was given is 981f3689d2ef7e8f477948ea17287eb90472ab189d3c803cb05478b076a3bb64

There are 2 outputs - one of 0.0008BTC, and one of 0.008BTC. It would seem logical to assume that the 0.0008BTC was the bet, right? Why would they need to pay the miners fee if the bet lost? Actual 12x payout for this example btw, not the 16x they advertise.

nope

Nopes. Whatever be the max-win, miners can not cheat without risking 12.5 BTC loss at their end. It has been thoroughly discussed in this thread - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/how-random-the-last-digit-of-a-block-hash-really-is-1493510 and this guy has summed it up pretty well...

Nopes buddy. This has remotely anything to do with how they make money. Following is clearly stated in the FAQ.


It is an on-chain game and 0.0002 BTC is used in mining fee.

For example, take the winning bet Tx of Bet ID: 515, i.e. https://blockchain.info/tx/26b04135e30c4dfce53de060477720875c191817f389c81e29f01ef466f6aaa3. The fee paid is 0.0002 BTC. Moreover, in each bet 0.0001 BTC seems to be going in mining fee to forward the bet amount, e.g. https://blockchain.info/tx/2bc2d1ad923806dac9b95ba842c6643e2523a6f84e98f71f56af6d39e95321e8.

Never noticed that before. I assumed their advertising was true (16x payout), but now that I look at it, it's false advertising. Betting 0.1BTC would get a 1.5968BTC profit if the bet won, which is a 15.96x multiplier. Just another reason to not invest - they falsely advertise payouts in an attempt to get more players. I suppose it would make it +EV for an investor, but I'm not sure if bitcoinbetting.website would give that to investors, and what fee they would take.

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Assuming they keep the fees, think of it like this: (assuming you are the only investor)
You invest 100 BTC into both BetKing.io and BitcoinBetting.website.
Someone bets 1 BTC at BetKing.io - your expected profit from that bet is 0.01BTC (1% edge, not counting fees).
Someone bets 1 BTC at BitcoinBetting.website - your expected profit is 0BTC

BitcoinBetting.website is not really a 0% edge game.
They take 0.0002 btc on each transaction, that's how they make money.
In fact, if you bet less than 0.02 btc, they take you more than 1% 

Strategies don't affect the EV of a gambling game where it isn't PvP (bustabit, which has a PvP aspect can become +EV), so using a "good" strategy doesn't change the EV. Going all in at a 2x multiplier is probably more effective than maritangling to double your money, as you would be paying less of a house edge.

It's about luck if it's a 0 EV site. The house isn't expected to make a profit, or lose, which makes sense that the site didn't get bankrupt.

Safedice: Someone won a 2% chance bet with 2 BTC against a 7+% house edge, causing most investors to have a huge loss.

Winning streaks might cause them to stop and cashout.

That is the reason I'm not investing. Playing on bitcoinbetting.website has the same expected value as investing, which is 0. The truth is that the expected value is 0 - no expected profit or loss. Talking about strategies doesn't change anything, nor does quoting a post which doesn't affect the expected value at all. If your talking about profiting off of variance, I'd rather invest in SafeDice where the amount wagered is the highest proportionate to the bankroll, and experience high variance there with still and expected profit.

That's the point imo as : house edge , when volume is really big, is what we expect as return on investiment.

Zero HE = Zero ROI

I think, u r mistaken. This guy has summed it up pretty well...


If u still disagree, u may place bet and try to loot the bankroll of www.bitcoinbetting.website to get the hands on experience.

is that really a 0 house edge game  maybe he is thinking about adding another game to the site ?
otherwise this would be totally a joke , why would someone invest in a 0 house edge and how is the site making money atm anyways 

I definitely would not, as I am expected to make absolutely no profit. I have investments in BitVest.io, Crypto-Games.net and BetKing.io because those games operate on a house edge, and I am expected to make a profit. Those games also have more volume as well, so profits would be more stable or losses would be lowered. By investing into a game with no expected profit, I'm exposing myself to more risk, for less reward.

That's a 0 house edge game, right?
Why would anyone consider investing into something that gives you an expected profit of nada?