Topic: Willy Report disucssion (Read 1987 times)
In retrospect this infamous blog post turned out to be quite prophetic
http://nerdr.com/bitcoin-exchange-scam-bitcoins-are-worthless/
lol http://nerdr.com/bitcoin-exchange-scam-bitcoins-are-worthless/
In retrospect this infamous blog post turned out to be quite prophetic
http://nerdr.com/bitcoin-exchange-scam-bitcoins-are-worthless/
http://nerdr.com/bitcoin-exchange-scam-bitcoins-are-worthless/
I just can't see how that would work. 
Hey look!
BTC is $100 more expensive on Gox than on Stamp!
Let's Arbitrage that fucker!
Ok, $100K onto Stamp. We seem to have bid up the price a bit on Stamp has have all the other Arber's but no worry, this is easy money.
Hooray, we have sold for a 10% profit onto Gox!
But wait a minute! We are doing this, dozens of other of arbitragers are doing this, so who on Gox keeps buying the cheap BTC at the Gox premium?
Willy is buying! Hooray!
Ok, lets get our funds out and do it all over again.
Shit, Gox won't give us back our funds, only BTC, what do we do?
"Buy Bitcoin and hold it, it is soaring in value anyway"
"Hooray"
This *1000.
Don't worry the true Bitcoin nutters will see that a validation of their strategy. It's the same thing as they invested in pirateat40s ponzi, fully knowing what it was.
I just can't see how that would work.
Hey look!
BTC is $100 more expensive on Gox than on Stamp!
Let's Arbitrage that fucker!
Ok, $100K onto Stamp. We seem to have bid up the price a bit on Stamp has have all the other Arber's but no worry, this is easy money.
Hooray, we have sold for a 10% profit onto Gox!
But wait a minute! We are doing this, dozens of other of arbitragers are doing this, so who on Gox keeps buying the cheap BTC at the Gox premium?
Willy is buying! Hooray!
Ok, lets get our funds out and do it all over again.
Shit, Gox won't give us back our funds, only BTC, what do we do?
"Buy Bitcoin and hold it, it is soaring in value anyway"
"Hooray"
This *1000.
I just can't see how that would work.
OK one single exchange could do that; create USD in a database table from thin air and issue buy orders.
It would explain the fiat withdrawal delays to some extent.
But how would that copy to other exchanges? There were no Willy or Markus on the other exchanges. So, only arbitrage would explain the rise, and in order to do that, coins and fiat have to flow out an into Gox.
Which by definition isn't possible with ficticious USD.
Pushing the market? Yes.
Sustaining most of the increase? Mathematically impossible.
IMHO
OK one single exchange could do that; create USD in a database table from thin air and issue buy orders.
It would explain the fiat withdrawal delays to some extent.
But how would that copy to other exchanges? There were no Willy or Markus on the other exchanges. So, only arbitrage would explain the rise, and in order to do that, coins and fiat have to flow out an into Gox.
Which by definition isn't possible with ficticious USD.
Pushing the market? Yes.
Sustaining most of the increase? Mathematically impossible.
IMHO
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain
People round here seem to be so sure on everything, I expect soon they will all be millionaires...
People round here seem to be so sure on everything, I expect soon they will all be millionaires...
On the otherhand, if you don't have an opinion, then you don't have no idea and if you don't have no idea, what do you have?
If you were a police detective investigating corrupt Gox BTC theft, wouldn't the manner in which the markets 'conspired' to chomp away at the 10K wall arouse your suspicions?
Did you even witness it? Do you even have any clue what I am talking about?
Good post, MatTheCat.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain
People round here seem to be so sure on everything, I expect soon they will all be millionaires...
Specilaists aka Market Makers aka Whales gotta get there coinz @ wholesales prices
How do they achieve this in a bullish market ...the MEDIA or recycled Willy Wonka Whore smokers reports
Yawn....
Willy Report is old news, this info was circulating in February or March on the forums and reddit. That's why nobody cares, its irrelevant to the current price.
In my opinion the FUD is being repushed because people want to slow the rise and continue accumulating cheap coins.
In my opinion the FUD is being repushed because people want to slow the rise and continue accumulating cheap coins.
I am not done buying cheap.. more FUD plz.
I got my last tranche of fiat onto stamp & got filled 60 mins ago
I am now totally ""ALL IN "
dis-enagage FUD machine in 3..2....1
Good post, MatTheCat.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain
People round here seem to be so sure on everything, I expect soon they will all be millionaires...
Good post, MatTheCat.
MtGox died 3 months ago. If Willy was the only reason for the run from 10 to 1000, we should now be closer to 10. However, we are much closer to 1000 now.
And don't forget, during the latest rally, most smart people escaped MtGox and were trading on other markets. BitPay stopped using MtGox since June. Volume in MtGox had moved to Bitstamp and Chinese markets. These other markets are real markets where people could freely deposit and withdraw both bitcoin and fiat. Especially in Chinese markets, fiat withdraw and deposit was completely friction-less before the PBoC ban. High price at these markets could not be sustained without real liquidity.
The Willy report is an excellent forensic analysis. However, I don't agree with its conclusion that Willy was the single most important factor in the previous rallies. Undoubtedly Willy had "contribution", but it was only one of the many reasons.
And don't forget, during the latest rally, most smart people escaped MtGox and were trading on other markets. BitPay stopped using MtGox since June. Volume in MtGox had moved to Bitstamp and Chinese markets. These other markets are real markets where people could freely deposit and withdraw both bitcoin and fiat. Especially in Chinese markets, fiat withdraw and deposit was completely friction-less before the PBoC ban. High price at these markets could not be sustained without real liquidity.
The Willy report is an excellent forensic analysis. However, I don't agree with its conclusion that Willy was the single most important factor in the previous rallies. Undoubtedly Willy had "contribution", but it was only one of the many reasons.
In what might have been Willy's last dance, there was a 10K BTC whale who came to Bitstamp and erected a 10K Ask wall, sometime back in Feb 2014, just before the crash to $400 and Gox's closure. The 10K wall understandable freaked a few traders out and a sell of began on Stamp. Traders and bots on other exchanges soon followed suit, as did Gox plummet to around $100, which in turn triggered other exchange bots to correlate their trading with Gox. The 10K BTC whale, then moved his 10K wall down from around $600, to $580. Bitstamp was trading around $560 at this point. But then Gox started rallying. All the other exchanges started rallying with it. Even though Gox was known to be only trading 'Goxcoin' at this point, Trading Bots operating on other exchanges were still clearly reacting to price action on Gox. Gox climbed from $100 right up to $270, as all the other exchanges shot back up above $600, all except Stamp which was stuck at $580, because of the 10K wall. However, because all the other exchanges were trading some $20-$30 higher than Stamp, the bots operating on Stamp kept buying into the 10K Wall.
The 10K whale sold some 6.5K BTC worth of Bitcoin (around 3.75 million USD) at exactly $580, the remaining 3.5K BTC, is market sold into the wall smashing the price on Stamp down to $510, before it quickly recovered on very low volume to around $550.
This is a glittering example of how automated or robot controlled the Bitcoin market is, and of how the by then obviously vacuous Gox trading bots were used to push market down, and then bring market right back up so that almost 4 million USD were spent on $580 Bitcoins, a price that Bitcoin has struggled to get up to and stay above ever since.
I wouldn't expect the whole market to suddenly implode the minute that Willy or any numerous other market ramping systems might be turned off. After all, their are hundreds and thousands of participants in this market, all of whom have bought and sold Bitcoins at prices which Willy helped to achieve, all of whom believed in the prices they bought and sold the coins at. If everyone believes that emperor is wearing clothes, then the emperor is wearing clothes. However, once that insatiable driver of the market is taken away, then there is obviously a very important component of demand removed from the market and the result of that can only be a dragging bear market until either a new driver of demand enters the market or the market reaches equilibrium level with organic market demand.
I actually think this is how mtgox converted fiat fee's into BTC.
I don't have the energy to calculate/look up everything; but gox received a small % of all deposits and trades. I imagine gox probably felt safest keeping this money in BTCs. 600k BTC is probably about right in terms of total profit from the history of gox. So yes, maybe gox was buying BTC from it's fees and maybe it helped the price. But I don't think the willy report necessarily means market manipulation.
I don't have the energy to calculate/look up everything; but gox received a small % of all deposits and trades. I imagine gox probably felt safest keeping this money in BTCs. 600k BTC is probably about right in terms of total profit from the history of gox. So yes, maybe gox was buying BTC from it's fees and maybe it helped the price. But I don't think the willy report necessarily means market manipulation.
Willy bot is down.. Needs some aphrodisiac to have a big erection 
Willy Report is old news, this info was circulating in February or March on the forums and reddit. That's why nobody cares, its irrelevant to the current price.
In my opinion the FUD is being repushed because people want to slow the rise and continue accumulating cheap coins.
In my opinion the FUD is being repushed because people want to slow the rise and continue accumulating cheap coins.
I am not done buying cheap.. more FUD plz.
Willy Report is old news, this info was circulating in February or March on the forums and reddit. That's why nobody cares, its irrelevant to the current price.
In my opinion the FUD is being repushed because people want to slow the rise and continue accumulating cheap coins.
In my opinion the FUD is being repushed because people want to slow the rise and continue accumulating cheap coins.
I would argue the bots simply were the lighter to light the fuel. Perhaps it would of taken longer but we might not of seen any massive dips if the bots kept out.
Mtgox crashing was major reason for april 2013 266 bubble burst
Did you live under a rock?
>90% of the 300k volume happened with 0 fee trading bots. Gox bot was only buy orders too. That's a huge part of the total volume.
The bubble almost certainly wouldn't have happened to these extents without willy. Don't fool yourself.
What about the bubbles before that had almost the same x increase? Willy too I suppose...>90% of the 300k volume happened with 0 fee trading bots. Gox bot was only buy orders too. That's a huge part of the total volume.
The bubble almost certainly wouldn't have happened to these extents without willy. Don't fool yourself.
The author fails to provide real evidence for any willy involvement in the April bubble, yet we had the same kinda bubble and increase 4 times now (I wanna remind you that bitcoin's market cap is still really small).
It's funny because you permabears were basically saying that we were not gonna have another big bull run because the december bubble was easily dismissed as the chinese buying like crazy with their "trillion shadow currency speculation", and because now they have deposit restrictions bitcoin will not gonna go anywhere. "omg no! no more fiat from the chinese, we are doomed"!!!.
But now you are saying that the reason for the bubble was not the new fiat in but some BOT in ONE joke of an exchange that was hacked numerous times.
i mean lol
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