See I come from the finance side of things, gambles and risks are natural phenomena but this is a constructed contest. In any case my view is to examine the details and compare the value possible gained vs the risk or cost of entry. This is how I assess value and also it explains why someone runs this contest, its profitable!
Never trust anyone until you understand in what way they will profit, nothing wrong with that but until I can figure it out its far more uncertain to me.
450k x £1.8 = 810k
or 2 euro
max pay is 650k euro
24.77% fee applicable
So here is the details I wrote down earlier, really basic stuff but its outlying the odds basically and the rate of return. So under full ticket sale, which I suppose this contest will return until the deadline trying to achieve then he takes 900,000 Euro in sales
Thats revenue, we ignore costs and his max pay out is 650k Euro so we see the gross margin is 250k which is almost a third on total take. A very good business if you can get the people, no need to be dishonest if you are this successful in life
If he does fail to get the full ticket sale, lets say he only sold 100k in Euro ticket sale. I would guess its more due to good publicity but for round numbers. Terms state he will then levy a fee of 24.77%
So the winner will receive 75,230 Euro. We dont know the 24k euro will cover his costs but I would presume he would be ok, many businesses survives on less
The situation is that he will do better the more tickets he sells, the margin is slightly more that way