Winklevoss The Case for $500K Bitcoin

Kakmakr

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It is easy to take historic prices and to extrapolate certain fixed trends, based on that... but it is a whole other story ...when it comes to reality. Roll Eyes

Who would have predicted the 80% drop in the Bitcoin price since 2017? If you used historic data back then, then we would have seen a $1 000 000 bitcoin price now. Roll Eyes

There are just too many things that can go wrong, for people to base their future predictions on historic data like that. Gold is more predictable, because the supply is limited and it is more stable. (also, because the price of Gold is being manipulated)

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'Bias' is necessarily not a bad thing. if I have been actively interested in a network like bitcoin for a good number of years as the Winklevoss twins have, I would likely pick up a bit of positive bias along the way, possibly to the level of maximalism. This is a personal opinion, as people gravitate towards what interests them.
When bias turns to prejudice, it is then a problem. Anyone can have positive or negative opinions about various ventures, but it would only be FUDing or shilling when one uses baseless statements to support of discredit a project.

Sanitough

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on September 08, 2020, 12:53:32 AM

Quote from: Sanitough on August 31, 2020, 02:36:23 AM

Quote from: davis196 on August 31, 2020, 01:30:13 AM

Quote

Bitcoin has already made significant ground on gold — going from whitepaper to over $200 billion in market capitalization in under a decade. Today, the market capitalization of above ground gold is conservatively $9 trillion. If we are right about using a gold framework to value bitcoin, and bitcoin continues on this path, then the bull case scenario for bitcoin is that it is undervalued by a multiple of 45. Said differently, the price of bitcoin could appreciate 45x from where it is today, which means we could see a price of $500,000 U.S. dollars per bitcoin.

Why is he so sure that Bitcoin will "continue to this path"?What if something happens and Bitcoin doesn't continue to this path?A better altcoin gets invented,a mass government ban hits the Bitcoin industry,a natural disaster destroys the human civilization.He makes the same mistake every trader is making.Trying the predict the price by looking at the past performance of Bitcoin.The fact that Bitcoin grew from 0 to 200 billion in 10 years doesn't mean that Bitcoin will grow from 200 billion to 10 trillion in the next 10 years.

They are holding bitcoin, big chunk of the total supply, so how do you expect them to think?

We may or may not believe, its up to us, but regardless, people would also look at their statement and prediction as a bias prediction as it serves their personal interest at best. If you read the reason behind why they call that price, maybe it would change your mind, and as for me, I would not limit my imagination on how much bitcoin could reach since we are talking of bitcoin that does not have an infinite supply.

But is it really a biased opinion because they hold Bitcoin, or is it they hold Bitcoin because they see it for what it truly is? A ground-breaking evolution of money and how we define it?

Same, they believe that bitcoin is revolutionary but there are people who does not believe on it and it's hard to convince them even if you will tell them facts about the potential of bitcoin, so they'll call people who believe and rooting for bitcoin bias, it doesn't matter anyway, in this world, we have different belief and opinion but we will find out who is right or wrong.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on September 08, 2020, 12:53:32 AM

"Money" will never be the same again after Bitcoin. Cool

That's what I believe too, and I am bias with that.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Sanitough on August 31, 2020, 02:36:23 AM

Quote from: davis196 on August 31, 2020, 01:30:13 AM

Quote

Bitcoin has already made significant ground on gold — going from whitepaper to over $200 billion in market capitalization in under a decade. Today, the market capitalization of above ground gold is conservatively $9 trillion. If we are right about using a gold framework to value bitcoin, and bitcoin continues on this path, then the bull case scenario for bitcoin is that it is undervalued by a multiple of 45. Said differently, the price of bitcoin could appreciate 45x from where it is today, which means we could see a price of $500,000 U.S. dollars per bitcoin.

Why is he so sure that Bitcoin will "continue to this path"?What if something happens and Bitcoin doesn't continue to this path?A better altcoin gets invented,a mass government ban hits the Bitcoin industry,a natural disaster destroys the human civilization.He makes the same mistake every trader is making.Trying the predict the price by looking at the past performance of Bitcoin.The fact that Bitcoin grew from 0 to 200 billion in 10 years doesn't mean that Bitcoin will grow from 200 billion to 10 trillion in the next 10 years.

They are holding bitcoin, big chunk of the total supply, so how do you expect them to think?

We may or may not believe, its up to us, but regardless, people would also look at their statement and prediction as a bias prediction as it serves their personal interest at best. If you read the reason behind why they call that price, maybe it would change your mind, and as for me, I would not limit my imagination on how much bitcoin could reach since we are talking of bitcoin that does not have an infinite supply.

But is it really a biased opinion because they hold Bitcoin, or is it they hold Bitcoin because they see it for what it truly is? A ground-breaking evolution of money and how we define it?

"Money" will never be the same again after Bitcoin. Cool

tbterryboy

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Quote from: bearexin on September 01, 2020, 02:04:23 AM

Winklevii twins are smart people, they know what they are doing and they got in very early so I would give them the benefit of the doubt.

However we are missing a date here, they are not saying that bitcoin will be 500k by the end of 2020, they are not saying that even by the end of 2030 neither, they are saying it like it is something special that will happen one day in the future and I can agree with that, it is not really that crazy to think that bitcoin could be 500 thousand dollars one day in the distant future.

I do not see it happening anytime soon, I will be a fat old bald dude when that happens but until that time I feel like we could stile make some strides, such as going towards 100k or so because that is closer right now and could happen in the next 3-5 years.

Yeah, we all know Winklevoss twins and with Gemini and going all in on crypto and not just in money sense or investment sense but also starting companies and going around talking about it, using their small fame from the social network movie that created some buzz, they really talked about crypto every single place they went so I am pretty sure that they are the richest bullish people on earth for crypto, nobody that is richer than they are and more famous than they are in mainstream world went ahead with bullish words on prime time tv slots and that is why I believe it is not a shock that they would think bitcoin would go super high as well.

In any case, over long period of time they will be richer and richer, these two have a ton of bitcoin so they will be quite wealthy and probably be in forbes thanks to how much bitcoin they have one day.

todiefor17

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The scenario of bitcoins valued at over $ 500k has been mentioned many times, but now they have to get past $ 12k and remain stable to continue to rise, and bitcoin itself has to make it through the mark. 20K $ that it created in 2017. I think bitcoin is difficult to quickly increase in value now because of the profit-taking of investors in previous years. I think 2021 bitcoin will break out. The $ 500k mark is unthinkable and I have no plans for that yet.

hatshepsut93

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The first line

Quote

Gold and oil have historically been reliable stores of value

is already bad, how can anyone say that oil is a store of value if it's a consumable commodity that is set to become less in demand as the world transitions towards others sources of energy, and historically oil had much more volatility than gold. I know that they have later in the article corrected themselves, but oil was never viewed as a store of value.

And the case against gold is rather weak, who cares about asteroids when we will be dead already. You can make a ton of points against Bitcoin with this level of reasoning - Bitcoin can get rekt by solar flares, nuclear wars, governments shutting down the Internet, quantum computers, etc.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: bearexin on September 01, 2020, 02:04:23 AM

Winklevii twins are smart people, they know what they are doing and they got in very early so I would give them the benefit of the doubt.

However we are missing a date here, they are not saying that bitcoin will be 500k by the end of 2020, they are not saying that even by the end of 2030 neither, they are saying it like it is something special that will happen one day in the future and I can agree with that, it is not really that crazy to think that bitcoin could be 500 thousand dollars one day in the distant future.

I do not see it happening anytime soon, I will be a fat old bald dude when that happens but until that time I feel like we could stile make some strides, such as going towards 100k or so because that is closer right now and could happen in the next 3-5 years.

Many people might have had the same attitude as you in 2011 - 2012, and within five years time, Bitcoin surged to a 5-digit valuation.

Don't believe, but always HODL. Cool

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Quote from: bearexin on September 01, 2020, 02:04:23 AM

However we are missing a date here, they are not saying that bitcoin will be 500k by the end of 2020, they are not saying that even by the end of 2030 neither, they are saying it like it is something special that will happen one day in the future and I can agree with that

They were ambiguous on that, but considering this quote from the article;

"...Today, the market capitalization of above ground gold is conservatively $9 trillion. If we are right about using a gold framework to value bitcoin, and bitcoin continues on this path, then the bull case scenario for bitcoin is that it is undervalued by a multiple of 45. Said differently, the price of bitcoin could appreciate 45x from where it is today, which means we could see a price of $500,000 U.S. dollars per bitcoin..."

I would assume they were suggesting that the current price is undervalued by 45×. So, we should realistically have that value now judging by the Bitcoin to gold ratio, but since we do not, it's probably just around the corner and Bitcoin could get to $500k during the next bull run

bearexin

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Winklevii twins are smart people, they know what they are doing and they got in very early so I would give them the benefit of the doubt.

However we are missing a date here, they are not saying that bitcoin will be 500k by the end of 2020, they are not saying that even by the end of 2030 neither, they are saying it like it is something special that will happen one day in the future and I can agree with that, it is not really that crazy to think that bitcoin could be 500 thousand dollars one day in the distant future.

I do not see it happening anytime soon, I will be a fat old bald dude when that happens but until that time I feel like we could stile make some strides, such as going towards 100k or so because that is closer right now and could happen in the next 3-5 years.

amishmanish

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There were a few assumptions in the article:
1.) Asteroid mining will lead to rare metals losing their shine.
2.) Instead of gold, central banks will look for a new store of value.

The major part of the article talks about US debt and the irreversible impact of COVID-19 on the already ballooning debt. I didn't really get why that would mean that BTC will replace Gold's 9 Trillion USD market cap.

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Quote from: davis196 on August 31, 2020, 01:30:13 AM

He makes the same mistake every trader is making.Trying the predict the price by looking at the past performance of Bitcoin.The fact that Bitcoin grew from 0 to 200 billion in 10 years doesn't mean that Bitcoin will grow from 200 billion to 10 trillion in the next 10 years.

Every thing is judged by past activity (technical analysis) and current potential (fundamental analysis), these are the metrics that can be extrapolated from an asset and used to predict its future path, except you could look into a crystal ball. Of course, there could be variations due to unforeseen circumstances, but the risk of this exists in any asset, that's why it's only a prediction.

fillippone

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Quote from: Sanitough on August 31, 2020, 02:36:23 AM

Quote from: davis196 on August 31, 2020, 01:30:13 AM

<…>
The fact that Bitcoin grew from 0 to 200 billion in 10 years doesn't mean that Bitcoin will grow from 200 billion to 10 trillion in the next 10 years.

They are holding bitcoin, big chunk of the total supply, so how do you expect them to think?
<…>

I prefer listening to an opionion from someone having skin in the game, rather than someone who has not, and only aims at fees collection.

As for that I am way more interested in Vinklevoss twins prediction, rather than Fidelity launching a Bitcoin Fund.

Anyway this prediction looks plausible to me, also having a bit of knowledge about Stock to flow Concept.

Sanitough

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Quote from: davis196 on August 31, 2020, 01:30:13 AM

Quote

Bitcoin has already made significant ground on gold — going from whitepaper to over $200 billion in market capitalization in under a decade. Today, the market capitalization of above ground gold is conservatively $9 trillion. If we are right about using a gold framework to value bitcoin, and bitcoin continues on this path, then the bull case scenario for bitcoin is that it is undervalued by a multiple of 45. Said differently, the price of bitcoin could appreciate 45x from where it is today, which means we could see a price of $500,000 U.S. dollars per bitcoin.

Why is he so sure that Bitcoin will "continue to this path"?What if something happens and Bitcoin doesn't continue to this path?A better altcoin gets invented,a mass government ban hits the Bitcoin industry,a natural disaster destroys the human civilization.He makes the same mistake every trader is making.Trying the predict the price by looking at the past performance of Bitcoin.The fact that Bitcoin grew from 0 to 200 billion in 10 years doesn't mean that Bitcoin will grow from 200 billion to 10 trillion in the next 10 years.

They are holding bitcoin, big chunk of the total supply, so how do you expect them to think?

We may or may not believe, its up to us, but regardless, people would also look at their statement and prediction as a bias prediction as it serves their personal interest at best. If you read the reason behind why they call that price, maybe it would change your mind, and as for me, I would not limit my imagination on how much bitcoin could reach since we are talking of bitcoin that does not have an infinite supply.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Upgrade00 on August 28, 2020, 08:58:29 AM

There is a topic on this in the Bitcoin discussion board - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.55080942

From the replies on the other thread (including mine) it seems a lot of people agree that $500k for Bitcoin is plausible, and is only a matter of time.

The article seems to have gained some traction, it was all over Bitcoin Twitter a couple of days ago and has reached a wider audience, with the fine details and information it had, it would pass as positive publicity for Bitcoin.

I'm going to say that most of them started agreeing recently, last year or two years ago, the same posters would laugh at you, call you delusional, and desperate. To them I have always said, zoom out, and Buy the dip and HODL.

davis196

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Quote

Bitcoin has already made significant ground on gold — going from whitepaper to over $200 billion in market capitalization in under a decade. Today, the market capitalization of above ground gold is conservatively $9 trillion. If we are right about using a gold framework to value bitcoin, and bitcoin continues on this path, then the bull case scenario for bitcoin is that it is undervalued by a multiple of 45. Said differently, the price of bitcoin could appreciate 45x from where it is today, which means we could see a price of $500,000 U.S. dollars per bitcoin.

Why is he so sure that Bitcoin will "continue to this path"?What if something happens and Bitcoin doesn't continue to this path?A better altcoin gets invented,a mass government ban hits the Bitcoin industry,a natural disaster destroys the human civilization.He makes the same mistake every trader is making.Trying the predict the price by looking at the past performance of Bitcoin.The fact that Bitcoin grew from 0 to 200 billion in 10 years doesn't mean that Bitcoin will grow from 200 billion to 10 trillion in the next 10 years.

GazetaBitcoin

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I know about these twin brothers since their amount of BTC was 10% of the total amount in circulation. Apparently, in time, their holding dropped to 1%. I think they were visionaries.

Quote from: fillippone on August 28, 2020, 08:27:10 AM

The old "gold equivalence" that brought Fillippone years and years ago, with his infamous Spreadsheet to invest in digital gold.

About that link - be aware that it can not be accessed - it requires permission Oo.

fillippone

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The article by the Vinklevii is a good, nice, non technical read.
The only point I find a little bit cheap is the galaxy gold argument: with current technology and probably, given current physic knowledge, the effect of a gold planet a few light years away could me non-existent.

Other sources of gold would probably considered more effective before that one:gold in seawater.

$771 Trillion Worth Of Gold Lies Hidden In The Ocean: Good Luck Getting It

Quote

Ocean waters around the world contain about 20 million tons of gold in them. When I say “in” that is meant literally, there is gold in ocean water. Unfortunately, the concentration lies on the order of parts per trillion, making it extremely difficult to get.

Based on today’s spot price of gold at $42.51 USD per gram, that amount of gold would be worth roughly $771 trillion.

fillippone

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Quote from: Upgrade00 on August 28, 2020, 08:58:29 AM

Quote from: fillippone on August 28, 2020, 08:27:10 AM

because even if they are credited owning 1% of bitcoin total supply, they didn't only hodled, but they used their bitcoin, they spent their bitcoins, to create something, I am thinking about Gemini here, and make Bitcoin grow bigger (they learnt Laszlo lesson).

For adopters who have been into Bitcoin since when its USD value was in a single digit, they have done a lot to increase awareness for Bitcoin

This is exactly one of the point I wanted to bring forward: they are entrepreneur, and building something on Bitcoin grant you a status that is, in my opinion, superior to the status of Hodler.

Quote from: Upgrade00 on August 28, 2020, 08:58:29 AM

There is a topic on this in the Bitcoin discussion board - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.55080942

I did miss that, I looked for an open thread, but I missed it. What is the etiquette?

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There is a topic on this in the Bitcoin discussion board - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.55080942
From the replies on the other thread (including mine) it seems a lot of people agree that $500k for Bitcoin is plausible, and is only a matter of time.
The article seems to have gained some traction, it was all over Bitcoin Twitter a couple of days ago and has reached a wider audience, with the fine details and information it had, it would pass as positive publicity for Bitcoin.

Quote from: fillippone on August 28, 2020, 08:27:10 AM

because even if they are credited owning 1% of bitcoin total supply, they didn't only hodled, but they used their bitcoin, they spent their bitcoins, to create something, I am thinking about Gemini here, and make Bitcoin grow bigger (they learnt Laszlo lesson).

For adopters who have been into Bitcoin since when its USD value was in a single digit, they have done a lot to increase awareness for Bitcoin

fillippone

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One of the most interesting, well written bullish case I recently read:

The Case for $500K Bitcoin

Is a well written long form, explaining in a clear technical way what is wrong with current traditional Stores of Values, and why Bitcoin is better at it.

They end up with this conclusion:

Quote

Bitcoin has already made significant ground on gold — going from whitepaper to over $200 billion in market capitalization in under a decade. Today, the market capitalization of above ground gold is conservatively $9 trillion. If we are right about using a gold framework to value bitcoin, and bitcoin continues on this path, then the bull case scenario for bitcoin is that it is undervalued by a multiple of 45. Said differently, the price of bitcoin could appreciate 45x from where it is today, which means we could see a price of $500,000 U.S. dollars per bitcoin.

The old "gold equivalence" that brought Fillippone years and years ago, with his infamous Spreadsheet to invest in digital gold.

I personally like the twins, limiting to bitcoin only, because even if they are credited owning 1% of bitcoin total supply, they didn't only hodled, but they used their bitcoin, they spent their bitcoins, to create something, I am thinking about Gemini here, and make Bitcoin grow bigger (they learnt Laszlo lesson).

Topic: Winklevoss The Case for $500K Bitcoin (Read 274 times)