Within 1 week I think there's a small chance BTC will crash from $240 to $160 - page 2.

MGUK

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Quote from: digitalfog on April 09, 2013, 12:11:07 PM

The interesting thing is: The parabolic rise is happening over a very very short period of time.

When looking at this subjectively, *hardly anyone uses bitcoin yet. Once adoption takes place...the rockets will fire.

I agree. It's a recognised stage of currency development.

Ideally, at some point, bitcoin will reach some kind of equilibrium letting the price settle at some level (or at least not fluctuate so wildly) but until then, it's anyone's guess!

digitalfog

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The interesting thing is: The parabolic rise is happening over a very very short period of time.

When looking at this subjectively, *hardly anyone uses bitcoin yet. Once adoption takes place...the rockets will fire.

BlueBanderBear

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What was the reason for the 2011 crash?

SilentSonicBoom

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Bitcoin is currently entering a parabolic rise in price. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. Look up tulipmania for an example.

MGUK

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awwww but the graphs are the best bit!!!!

I agree though, that's why I dotted numerous disclaimers that it's equally (if not more so) as likely that it wont happen.

I've been following BTC since the last crash. However, I only have like 2BTC I bought for about $10 just after last crash.

It's no benefit or cost for me to mention it though, just on the off chance it does happen! I tried to do it in the least scaremongering/retarded sounding way:)

physalis

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You're trying to read in tealeaves bro. Don't do that, it's pointless.
The situation right now is very different from back then. It might crash at some point, or it might not. Nobody knows.
Going as far as predicting specific values *where* it will crash, just because the pattern on the past chart looks similar is just unreasonable. The crash in 2011 had a very specific reason, one that is highly unlikely will come again this time.

Also, for some reason the site isn't loading anything for me right now, so I can't even check your charts out :/

MGUK

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Comparing the 2011 crash to now, I think within there is a chance that within 1 week, BTC will "crash" from $240 down to around $130.

I say "I think there is a chance" because it's naive to conclusively say the market will repeat itself. There's so many other factors to take into account.

The evidence for this chance:

Graph of past 2 months
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-02-10zeg2013-04-10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Graph of past 2 months leading up to 2011 crash
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-04-8zeg2011-06-8ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

load them in separate tabs, toggle between the 2.

You notice 2 - 3 small peaks in about the same place, and a pretty similar growth pattern. 2011 had a noticeable peak at $10, went up to $30 and then down to around $15 before sinking lower (made worse by hacks at the time.)

I wouldn't be surprised if it just carried on rising though - after all there's no similarity in relative trade volume. If it did crash, I have faith it would recover in the long run.

Any thoughts?

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