Worst case (plausible) scenario thread

DieJohnny

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Quote from: jaberwock on September 10, 2014, 04:38:26 PM

Worst case scenario:

someone moves the Satoshi's coins and dump everything on exchanges. Instant sub 10 probably before the coins arrives.

That would means either Satoshi goes nuts or someone hacked Satoshi coins

I do think this is a plausible scenario, sooner or later the Satoshi coins are going to play out. However, I actually don't think the price will stay low for very long at all. If the price drops to $10, then a million coins is only 10 million bucks and we know there are a ton of people that would scoop them and hold them for a long time at that price.

All Satoshi coins getting dumped would be a GREAT win IMO. I wish it would happen immediately.

jaberwock

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Worst case scenario:

someone moves the Satoshi's coins and dump everything on exchanges. Instant sub 10 probably before the coins arrives.

That would means either Satoshi goes nuts or someone hacked Satoshi coins

giveBTCpls

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Quote from: Chuckee on September 10, 2014, 10:48:11 AM

Drop your false hope! The bitcoin bubble is over and there is no mainstream interest in bitcoin because of MtGox, many scam IPO, high profile hack and value drop 60% since start of 2014. Bitcoin will go nowhere but down from here. You have been warned!

Best case scenario, bulls here fool too many newcomers and price holds at $450 for a few more weeks before final capitulation!

MtGox = your fault at trusting a shitty exchange, you could get scammed with FIAT too
IPOs = lots of FIAT scams happen daily
getting hacked = you are dumb and cant manage your own business
value drop 60% since start of 2014 = still wayyyyyyyy up looking at the big picture, if you are not investing in Bitcoin as we speak you have to be mentally retarded. This sub 1k period will be remember as the golden opportunity to invest if you missed the initial boat.

yokosan

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My absolute worst case scenario is a 50% drop next year... Cry

From $5,000 to $2,500 Grin

dyland

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We must become the pitiless censors of ourselves.

Quote from: Chuckee on September 10, 2014, 02:59:03 PM

bitcoin has falling 60% since start of 2014. this already is worst case scenario!

WE ARE ALREADY LIVING IT.

Now it only gets worst and worst. Drop your false hope!

Haha, I love this guy...

Chuckee

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bitcoin has falling 60% since start of 2014. this already is worst case scenario!

WE ARE ALREADY LIVING IT.

Now it only gets worst and worst. Drop your false hope!

d5000

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Decentralization Maximalist

Quote from: DieJohnny on September 10, 2014, 02:50:53 PM

Even if other coins step up and actually compete, Bitcoin is not going to go away or go down to $10 million market cap strictly to technology features.

You far over estimate the importance of wiz bang coin features, Bitcoin is complex enough with technology for people to grasp, more complexity is a losing position for mainstream consumers.

eBay did zero innovation for a decade and easily maintained its place in online auctions simply for being first. Bitcoin would have to majorly stumble to become the MySpace of crypto. I see no plausible major stumbling issue for Bitcoin.

I gave you a worst case scenario, not the scenario that I think is most probable Grin

The scenario of a "obsolete bitcoin" is based on the potentially far lesser transaction costs of PoS and PoB-based solutions because of the lesser energy consumption. It may or may not be decisive. I don't think its a realistic short-term scenario, but it can happen in a couple of years (maybe 2, maybe 5, maybe 20 ...).

DieJohnny

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Quote from: d5000 on September 10, 2014, 01:18:32 PM

Worst case: PoS and PoB coins make Bitcoin obsolete, Bitcoin can't change to PoS/PoB because of miners, mining industry collapses, Bitcoin continues as a hobbyist's / nostalgic's project on 0,01-0,10$ levels.

Even if other coins step up and actually compete, Bitcoin is not going to go away or go down to $10 million market cap strictly to technology features.

You far over estimate the importance of wiz bang coin features, Bitcoin is complex enough with technology for people to grasp, more complexity is a losing position for mainstream consumers.

eBay did zero innovation for a decade and easily maintained its place in online auctions simply for being first. Bitcoin would have to majorly stumble to become the MySpace of crypto. I see no plausible major stumbling issue for Bitcoin.

guidexy

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I like more the OP worst case scenario, the others are too bearish in my opinion.

d5000

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Decentralization Maximalist

Worst case: PoS and PoB coins make Bitcoin obsolete, Bitcoin can't change to PoS/PoB because of miners, mining industry collapses, Bitcoin continues as a hobbyist's / nostalgic's project on 0,01-0,10$ levels.

Ultros

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Quote from: Chuckee on September 10, 2014, 12:16:35 PM

We missed you.

Elwar

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Viva Ut Vivas

Worst case scenario...Keynes was right! War and oppression is the best economic solution.

Habeler876

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Worst case scenario: No new ATH, or eventual slightly higher ATH with a prolonged bear market that never recovers. In this scenario, I think there is a good chance we would reach $100s and possibly double digits for some time before the return of the bull market. I am not betting on this YET -- I prefer to follow the mid term trend in between -- BUT this scenario has a decent probability in my opinion.

uhoh

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Circle gets the Square

Quote from: Chuckee on September 10, 2014, 12:16:35 PM

Quote from: Wilhelm on September 10, 2014, 11:54:34 AM

Quote from: Chuckee on September 10, 2014, 10:48:11 AM

Drop your false hope! The bitcoin bubble is over and there is no mainstream interest in bitcoin because of MtGox, many scam IPO, high profile hack and value drop 60% since start of 2014. Bitcoin will go nowhere but down from here. You have been warned!

Best case scenario, bulls here fool too many newcomers and price holds at $450 for a few more weeks before final capitulation!

It's not even been $450 for the last few days and the price is climbing .... stop yapping your FALSE doomsday scenario....

Do not buy into dead cat bounces! Drop your false hope before it's too late!

Igorr is back.

andy35

member

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A scenario is just a possibility of what someone imagines may happen. There are worst cases, best cases and plenty of other cases in between. I don't think any scenarios can either be false or true, they are just guesses of what might happen.

Chuckee

member

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Merit: 10

Quote from: Wilhelm on September 10, 2014, 11:54:34 AM

Quote from: Chuckee on September 10, 2014, 10:48:11 AM

Drop your false hope! The bitcoin bubble is over and there is no mainstream interest in bitcoin because of MtGox, many scam IPO, high profile hack and value drop 60% since start of 2014. Bitcoin will go nowhere but down from here. You have been warned!

Best case scenario, bulls here fool too many newcomers and price holds at $450 for a few more weeks before final capitulation!

It's not even been $450 for the last few days and the price is climbing .... stop yapping your FALSE doomsday scenario....

Do not buy into dead cat bounces! Drop your false hope before it's too late!

hayabusa911

sr. member

Activity: 369

Merit: 250

I'm glad I read this thread I'm off to sell all of my bitcoins now. I guess this is goodbye.

alexeft

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Ignored!!!

Wilhelm

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Quote from: Chuckee on September 10, 2014, 10:48:11 AM

Drop your false hope! The bitcoin bubble is over and there is no mainstream interest in bitcoin because of MtGox, many scam IPO, high profile hack and value drop 60% since start of 2014. Bitcoin will go nowhere but down from here. You have been warned!

Best case scenario, bulls here fool too many newcomers and price holds at $450 for a few more weeks before final capitulation!

It's not even been $450 for the last few days and the price is climbing .... stop yapping your FALSE doomsday scenario....

g29wheel

newbie

Activity: 27

Merit: 0

If 12 months is the worst realistic case I would be very happy to wait for it and double my holdings

Topic: Worst case (plausible) scenario thread (Read 2075 times)