Worst Case Scenario - Price Predictions?

Elwar

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Viva Ut Vivas

Quote from: kireinaha on March 27, 2014, 10:41:46 PM

Quote from: aminorex on January 18, 2014, 10:26:55 AM

450 stamp is where the bottom of a logarithmic channel meets the falling resistance from Jan 5th. I can't construct anything meaningful lower than that.

How did you know this? totally called the bottom, spot on.

Where do you see bitcoin going from here?

Actually the bottom was $400, though it was very brief (got most of mine at $450).

DieJohnny

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Mt Gox in complete shut down was still trading coins for $100 a coin. Pretty remarkable if you ask me.

I think the worst case bottom is probably double what you saw on Gox in its death throws.

TERA

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worst case is $0...

kireinaha

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Quote from: aminorex on January 18, 2014, 10:26:55 AM

450 stamp is where the bottom of a logarithmic channel meets the falling resistance from Jan 5th. I can't construct anything meaningful lower than that.

How did you know this? totally called the bottom, spot on.

Where do you see bitcoin going from here?

Satyre_Noir

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No crash boys, you had your chance few weeks ago.

Bitbuy

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Seems unlikely to crash. Test the resistance yes, but no crashing will occur...

Elwar

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Worst case scenario in the short term is that the feds sell all 170k+ on the exchanges. This would send the price down below $100/BTC briefly. With some warning the price would fall to $200-$300 beforehand, then shoot up afterwards. If they announce an auction, several big players will cash out to buy back in cheaper sending the price down beforehand, with a slow climb wondering what the buyer will do with the coins.

Denton

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Quote from: zeroday on January 19, 2014, 04:53:59 PM

Quote from: Denton on January 18, 2014, 01:52:19 PM

Quote from: Holliday on January 18, 2014, 01:22:54 PM

Quote from: Denton on January 18, 2014, 06:06:06 AM

Depends on the scenario. If the USA, EU and China ban bitcoin <30$.

We all know that prohibition always makes the thing being prohibited less valuable. Wink

The freedom to transfer value without permission or middlemen is more important to me than ingesting substances which governments around the world have outlawed. We all know how well that worked out.

Bitcoin was designed to be ban proof from the start.

Can't agree with that. As you know Bitcoin was designed to have progressively lower block rewards, while mining revenue was supposed to increasingly come from transaction fees. This means that as time goes by a larger price and volume become necessary to keep mining profitable. By banning Bitcoin governments can destroy every chance of mainstream adoption while leaving Bitcoin a much smaller part of the economy in which it can operate. The price would crash leaving many ASICS unprofitable making the network much weaker. It's role as a transfer of value would be severely damaged because of the difficulty to exchange it for fiat as no formal exchange can exist anymore.

Hahaha. Bitcoin cannot be really banned. Look at Argentina where they banned the use of USD, and now the most of their population are sitting on dollars

Also, did Gold lose its value since in was banned by the US president in 1933 ?

Bitcoin can be made illegal which would destroy it's chance of mainstream adoption which would make it dead in the long run.

harlenadler

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Agent of Chaos

it seems there is some conflation on this issue, often times, anyway

short term/mid term effect on price is not the same as effect on utility and these are not the same

and LOL and comparing the utility of the USD with BTC Tongue

zeroday

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Quote from: Denton on January 18, 2014, 01:52:19 PM

Quote from: Holliday on January 18, 2014, 01:22:54 PM

Quote from: Denton on January 18, 2014, 06:06:06 AM

Depends on the scenario. If the USA, EU and China ban bitcoin <30$.

We all know that prohibition always makes the thing being prohibited less valuable. Wink

The freedom to transfer value without permission or middlemen is more important to me than ingesting substances which governments around the world have outlawed. We all know how well that worked out.

Bitcoin was designed to be ban proof from the start.

Can't agree with that. As you know Bitcoin was designed to have progressively lower block rewards, while mining revenue was supposed to increasingly come from transaction fees. This means that as time goes by a larger price and volume become necessary to keep mining profitable. By banning Bitcoin governments can destroy every chance of mainstream adoption while leaving Bitcoin a much smaller part of the economy in which it can operate. The price would crash leaving many ASICS unprofitable making the network much weaker. It's role as a transfer of value would be severely damaged because of the difficulty to exchange it for fiat as no formal exchange can exist anymore.

Hahaha. Bitcoin cannot be really banned. Look at Argentina where they banned the use of USD, and now the most of their population are sitting on dollars

Also, did Gold lose its value since in was banned by the US president in 1933 ?

joshraban76

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worst case IMO.... but unlikely -- in the 260-300 range. wont matter too much which exchange you look at, they would mostly recouple by then, i think.

johnyj

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Beyond Imagination

Quote from: TERA on January 19, 2014, 02:31:01 AM

The worst case scenario for BTC is always $0 - catastrophic failure, and anyone who believes otherwise is somewhat detached from reality within their euphoria.

Any currency's value can drop to 0 if the issuer who back the currency is gone. Same, if the network back the bitcoin is gone, then it will worth 0, but the probability for that to happen might be much less than a government being taken down. A civil war wipe out one government, or hyperinflation render a currency useless, those events won't affect bitcoin

piramida

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Borsche

Quote from: TERA on January 19, 2014, 02:31:01 AM

The worst case scenario for BTC is always $0

no, worst case is a huge meteor destroying earth in seconds. nothing could be worse for us humans. now that this is off the table, let's talk reality.

TERA

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The worst case scenario for BTC is always $0 - catastrophic failure, and anyone who believes otherwise is somewhat detached from reality within their euphoria.

johnyj

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Beyond Imagination

Actually there were such chances in 2011 (from 30+ to 3), and a second chance after 2013 spring's crash (From 266 to 70), but it is unlikely that the market is going to give you a third chance, the market never repeat the same pattern more than twice, we are going to see a different development this time

piramida

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Borsche

Quote from: spiderbrain on January 18, 2014, 04:16:57 PM

Quote from: Denton on January 18, 2014, 01:52:19 PM

By banning Bitcoin governments can destroy every chance of mainstream adoption while leaving Bitcoin a much smaller part of the economy in which it can operate.

If it makes any inroads into the $15 Trillion offshore banking sector then it will be doing just fine.

but it will be illegal to move money into a jurisdiction where you are not paying taxes from it, so nobody would do it. oh wait...

spiderbrain

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Quote from: Denton on January 18, 2014, 01:52:19 PM

By banning Bitcoin governments can destroy every chance of mainstream adoption while leaving Bitcoin a much smaller part of the economy in which it can operate.

If it makes any inroads into the $15 Trillion offshore banking sector then it will be doing just fine.

piramida

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Borsche

Quote from: SilverandBitcoins on January 18, 2014, 02:25:36 PM

It's kind of funny...everyone's talking about/predicting a crash

You have a weird definition of "everyone"

Don't be mistaken - people who are talking about crash here have no coins for a long time already. They want it to happen, because currently the price is way above what they cashed out at, but unfortunately we've run out of silly people who would sell now.

SilverandBitcoins

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It's kind of funny...everyone's talking about/predicting a crash, yet, yesterday, last night and all day today so far it's stayed the same and hasn't crashed at all.

SilverandBitcoins

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Quote from: Ibian on January 18, 2014, 10:42:06 AM

0. That's the worst case scenario. Glad we got that sorted.

Wow, this post is right on the money. Zero is the worst case scenario. I think zero is impossible though - you can always find someone willing to buy something, so maybe it can go down to a few pennies, or something like the price of DEVcoin where it's worth .0004 U.S.D.

Topic: Worst Case Scenario - Price Predictions? (Read 2867 times)