Topic: worth the wait? (Read 6236 times)

Bitcoins will sure be worth more than 15$ in near future. Don't panic. Or panic and I will buy them for a even lower price!

Critical mass and path dependency are oh so crucial. I actually remember using Yahoo! Auctions (remember them?) before discovering eBay, and YA offered something seriously competitive: no commission! In spite of that it still couldn't beat off the more powerful, successful and established eBay.

I can see other cryptocoins (LTC anyone?) finding their own place but not as a replacement for BTC.

In this vein - Maybe you should consider investing some btc into some business venture. As you've already taken a 15% loss on your initial buy...

I'm actually interested in helping you exchange your risk. If you'd be willing to divert some of your speculative bitcoin shortly after we see ASICs in the wild - I'd would be willing take a loan out from you and pay you some decent interest rate. I'm invested in BFL atm - but would like to diversify into other mining hardware, just a bit cash short to do that. My existing investment is free and clear however, so I'd personally guarantee the loan according to whatever terms we worked out.

A lot of interesting things are happening in the world of Bitcoin. The next 6 months will have a massive impact on the Bitcoin market, with the release of ASIC technology in congruence with the block reward halving. I've always been more of a realist than an optimist, and most people who feel optimistic about Bitcoin feel as though the value will go up as the network hashrate going up, and the reward going down... However, the cold truth is, scarcity only drives supply and demand to the extent that the market has an incentive to buy up supply. If Bitcoin is to have a bright future, confidence in it must be strong, and with recent events, confidence isn't where it needs to be for the value to adjust proportionally to the network hashrate and reward drop. There is no direct answer to your question, as I don't have the proper insight/inside intel necessary(very very few people do) to make an informed prediction. Every market has an invisible hand, and those with deep pockets who feel threatened by Bitcoin as a system will see that their agenda is served. If you want Bitcoin's value to rise and see a more successful future(be more aligned with upcoming events which affect scarcity), do not sell your coins. Instead, consider spending the coins on something you can resell for more fiat, buy back your coins, and pocket the extra fiat, or buy more coins than what you started with. If adoption is to occur, people need to feel confident that the system will work, and selling off is the opposite of this. I would only advise selling if those with more monetary clout than yourself decide they want to harm the system: clearcut evidence comes forward that ASIC devices are a scam, The Bitcoin Foundation gets lured/forced into some kind of subservient collusion with the corruption of government, Silk Road gets busted/shut down, etc. Any number of events could greatly disrupt the system. My best advise would be to keep yourself informed with information that can be trusted, and keep a close eye on the market. Check prices multiple times a day, if you see a fluctuation, find out why, and make choices based on your findings. Play the game like a stock broker.

keep it!

SELL SELL SELL!!!!

I like deathandtaxes' answer.

With that many bitcoins, I would perhaps open up my own options market to get rid off some.

This is very interesting to read to see that people are investing into the value of BitCoin, as personally I got into it for the mining.

Hold on to it man.  Wait till it drops to 25 per block and see what happens.  You might have better luck then.

Now that you've had a glimpse of what is possible with bitcoin, it will be hard to go back to being content with the current mode of banking and finance.

Of course, just forget it.

Great thread indeed.

There is one aspect of the bitcoin-with-shortcomings vs future-potentially-superior cryptocurrencies debate that I haven't heard mentioned. This is a question i'm wondering about but have no way to guess at a decent answer.

There is significant investment in bitcoin totaling many man hours on behalf of a lot of very talented programmers, both past and on-going. To what extent would programmers be willing to jump ship to an alt-bitcoin? To what extent are other experienced such programmers available to develop and support an alt-bitcoin?

I'll have to read that thread, but this sounds like it could be proof-of-merit.

jbgc, here's how I'd think of it, if I were you. In order to remove your emotional attachment, consider the $3400 as a loss and let it go. Pretend that you just bought into bitcoin with $1600, instead. Do you feel that $4.79 is too high? Or do you feel that it's too low? Remember to forget what the price was in the past, and only remember what it is now.

Given that you're investing long-term, you don't need to worry so much about the technicals, are are instead able to focus more on the fundamentals. Do you see a need that still hasn't been filled by Bitcoin? Do you see improvements that can still be made? If your answer to these is "yes", and you're able to commit this money for at least 10 years, I'd say stick with it. If you don't see much growth for bitcoin from how it is now, or if you suspect that you'll need the money in the next year (at least), get out now or at least start treating this as a short-term investment (which means following the technicals, etc.). If you don't have investment experience and you feel like you will need to shift this to a short-term investment, speak to a financial advisor.

since mtgox controls almost the entire btc/usd market, as soon as they implement short sales, it will help mitigate volatility greatly.

It may also refer to this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62137.0;all

tl;dr: You broadcast a transaction; miners who consider it valid for inclusion (no double spends, adequate fees paid, etc) sign the transaction and broadcast that signature to the network; the recipient sees these signed Promises to Include.  If the miners who solved >60% of the last 1000 blocks (pick an appropriate threshold and window) approve the transaction it will almost certainly be included; thus you do not have to wait for 6 confirms.

This proposal could eradicate the delay, but I'm not aware of any current work to actually implement it.

I believe they are talking about "green addresses"

? +1

It's been great for the initial bootstrap phase - no argument there; and I agree that it won't be a problem if/when Bitcoin becomes "huge".  The trouble is the uncomfortable early-middle phase where we are now entering.



Absolutely.  I'm not saying my proposal is a perfect solution - it's just a different set of tradeoffs.  The fixed supply model (and all the other design decisions in Bitcoin), may win out in the end.  For now, I consider them to be realistic concerns, and I sharply limit my calculated valuations to account for them.

I'd like to emphasize that I'm not even saying you're wrong - we might breeze through it and in retrospect my concerns will be clearly overblown.  I just prefer to consider all the potential ways things may unfold.