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Topic: Would this be worth it? -Butterfly Labs (Read 1542 times)

seishin

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 0

Quote from: cypher1024 on April 28, 2013, 07:40:47 AM

Quote from: Pzi4nk on April 28, 2013, 06:47:13 AM

Quote from: smiths8 on April 28, 2013, 06:37:21 AM

how much BTC can I get IF I buy BFL 50 GH/s Bitcoin Miner - $2,499
BitForce 50 GH/s SC ?

Depends on a couple factors:

1. When you actually get the unit.
2. How much the difficulty increase between now and then.

1.5PH/s: $3.60/day

so if it costs less power than $3,6/day it gains profit

tronath

newbie

Activity: 15

Merit: 0

Depends what the difficulty will be by the time you get it... personally I wouldn't get one at this stage. Jalapenos are being delivered before the singles though at the moment

MooC Tals

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

Quote from: BitshireHashaway on April 28, 2013, 02:47:00 PM

Thanks for all the advice guys. I guys I'll stick with some good old computer hardware for now until they can get their act together and be reliable enough for me to consider buying them.

litecoin mines at 2x profit if you want you can buy bitcoins with them at the exchange. However diffs going up every 3 days

BitshireHashaway

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

Thanks for all the advice guys. I guys I'll stick with some good old computer hardware for now until they can get their act together and be reliable enough for me to consider buying them.

Outsider7p

newbie

Activity: 6

Merit: 0

Don't expect to see it anytime soon! That's what put me off ordering one a few weeks ago. They will not be profitable by the time they ship.

cypher1024

newbie

Activity: 17

Merit: 0

Quote from: Pzi4nk on April 28, 2013, 06:47:13 AM

Quote from: smiths8 on April 28, 2013, 06:37:21 AM

how much BTC can I get IF I buy BFL 50 GH/s Bitcoin Miner - $2,499
BitForce 50 GH/s SC ?

Depends on a couple factors:

1. When you actually get the unit.
2. How much the difficulty increase between now and then.

Let's run some numbers!

If you somehow got a 50GH unit right now, you would be making about $364 per day.

I think Butterfly Labs is predicting at a two month wait, by which time the network hash rate will probably rise to something like 300TH/s, making the difficulty around 42 million. Still, you'd be making $77 a day (if the USD/BTC exchange rate holds).

My guess is that it's going to be *at least* 4 months before you see that unit. It's hard to predict how fast the network will be by then.

If the network gets to 500TH/s, the difficulty will be around 70 million and you'll get $47/day.

1PH/s (1000TH/s) will yield a difficulty of 140 mil and 50GH/s will net you around $23/day.

1.5PH/s and you'll be getting $16/day.

And all of this is assuming that the exchange rate stays around US$130/BTC. If it drops back to $30 where it was before the recent madness, those numbers become:

500TH/s: $10.80/day
1PH/s: $5.40/day
1.5PH/s: $3.60/day

Even if the exchange rate stays high, and you get your unit before the difficulty climbs too high, you won't pay it off instantly. The difficulty is going to keep climbing while you're paying off your unit. It might start at 42 million, but it might be 50 or 60 million before you've paid off your unit.

roozifus

sr. member

Activity: 249

Merit: 250

Quote from: xenn on April 28, 2013, 03:45:53 AM

Quote from: roozifus on April 28, 2013, 02:47:58 AM

I ordered one in Feb, but it's really hard to say when delivery will be.
There's been a huge number of orders over the last year, but also a lot of people have cancelled so it's hard to know where in the queue I am.
I think BFLs current estimates assume a final production rate of 400units/day but it's not clear how accurate this will end up being.

For what it's worth I've just written mine off because it's too much stress constantly waiting for updates. If/when it does arrive I think I'll probably mine some alt-currencies just for fun Tongue

Alt-currencies like litecoin use scrypt that the ASIC is well-suited for..

Yea, can't do scrypt, but most alternate cryptos are sha. I'm mining Freicoin at the moment, and might have play with Bytecoin after that.
I've got some gpu's that i'll move over to scrypt once the hashrate on sha coins goes through the roof.

Pzi4nk

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Move over clarinets, I'm getting on the band wagon

Quote from: smiths8 on April 28, 2013, 06:37:21 AM

how much BTC can I get IF I buy BFL 50 GH/s Bitcoin Miner - $2,499
BitForce 50 GH/s SC ?

Depends on a couple factors:

1. When you actually get the unit.
2. How much the difficulty increase between now and then.

Pzi4nk

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Move over clarinets, I'm getting on the band wagon

Quote from: Pzi4nk on April 28, 2013, 06:20:46 AM

One possibility I haven't seen discussed is that the 5Gh/s units get shipped before the bigger models. It seems like this could happen if BFL is not able to meet its specs since the smaller the unit the less offensive it is.

It could end up that buying the Jalapeno was the better move.

From what I've seen, they are hashing at higher rates than advertised. The notable exception being grnbrg's machine, but it was a 'pre-production sample'.

Hashing at higher rates, yes. I was talking about power consumption.

smiths8

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

how much BTC can I get IF I buy BFL 50 GH/s Bitcoin Miner - $2,499
BitForce 50 GH/s SC ?

cypher1024

newbie

Activity: 17

Merit: 0

Quote from: Mccanical on April 28, 2013, 05:27:32 AM

I wouldn't go with BFL because they still haven't shipped to anyone who has ordered... and even if they finally do... when do you think they will get around to your order?

They have actually shipped a few to paying customers. Here's one: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/jalapeno-single-sc-support/2088-guess-who%92s-got-two-thumbs-jalapeno%85%85-guy%85.html

I think they've shipped less than 20 (out of ~20,000) but it's a start.

Still, if you order right now you're probably not going to see your order for a few months at least.

Quote from: Pzi4nk on April 28, 2013, 06:20:46 AM

From what I've seen, they are hashing at higher rates than advertised. The notable exception being grnbrg's machine, but it was a 'pre-production sample'.

Pzi4nk

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Move over clarinets, I'm getting on the band wagon

CJPOLO

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: cypher1024 on April 28, 2013, 05:18:07 AM

Quote from: neil_mccauley on April 28, 2013, 03:20:29 AM

The general consensus is that if you don't have an order in already, by the time you receive your unit, 5Gh/s will be too slow considering where the difficulty will be at that point. The ROI would take too long to make it worthwhile. If you think the price of BTC will go up, it's better to buy the coins and hold them.

It all depends on how much you're paying for electricity (and what the USD/BTC exchange rate does in the future).

Even with a total network speed of 5 petahashes/sec, the 5GH miner will be producing about 0.11 BTC/month. At current rates, that's around USD$15. It would still pay for itself in 18 months (plus a few extra months for shipping).

Obviously if the exchange rate takes a dive that $15 could very easily become $1.50/month.

I'm not really worried though. In the long term, Bitcoin will almost certainly appreciate well past the current US$130 price.

Agreed,

The value will eventually sit around the US$150 if not higher. Depending on the amount of people that take it up and start using it as a currency.

Mccanical

newbie

Activity: 6

Merit: 0

I wouldn't go with BFL because they still haven't shipped to anyone who has ordered... and even if they finally do... when do you think they will get around to your order?

Addz

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Most of it is going to come down to the time that you physically have it in your hands and all hooked up and hashing. If you could go down to the store and buy one right now and have it hashing away within an hour then I'd say hell yes go for it.

But since we have no idea when that would actually be I'd say that if you don't have one on order already and you'd be at the back of the que, start looking elsewhere

cypher1024

newbie

Activity: 17

Merit: 0

Quote from: neil_mccauley on April 28, 2013, 03:20:29 AM

MooC Tals

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

Quote from: Blueberry408 on April 28, 2013, 03:27:07 AM

I'm not a big stock nerd, so what's the fun in holding btc? I wonder how many people who canceled bfl orders wish they hadn't now that devices seem to be materializing, some where.

Really I don't regret it at all. I put my 600 dollars into a new computer and 2 7950 gpu's for litcoin and made about 500 litcoins a month instead of waiting since Oct. At 4 dollars a litecoin basically paid for the computer and some. If I didn't cancel my order my 600 dollars would be sitting with bfl now and I would be out of a great deal of revenue.

So I don't think BFL really is a great deal if you ask me. But hey good luck guys cus the way I see it BFL has screwed you guys.

jeffp86

newbie

Activity: 12

Merit: 0

Quote from: BitshireHashaway on April 28, 2013, 01:15:00 AM

I have heard a lot about butterfly labs not delivering on time, however I have also heard that they have finally started some shipments with their products. I was wondering would the 5 gh/s one on their website (listed at $274.00) be worth it, and what is a conservative estimate on its arrival time? Seems like a good deal to me, if you could get your hands on it and get it working, but thats what I'm worried about.

well, it's a small gamble... 80% odds you'd get it ... but the question is "when"

CJPOLO

newbie

Activity: 34

Merit: 0

Quote from: cetern on April 28, 2013, 05:01:43 AM

Quote from: BTCscraper on April 28, 2013, 04:51:47 AM

I'm on the fence with Butterfly Labs. I'm willing to buy, but won't do so until I know they have shipped regular commercial units in quantity.

Indeed, it's a bit of a Catch-22. By the time they've proven themselves and I would be willing to buy, the unit won't be worth buying.

Agreed It is a big Unknown.

cetern

newbie

Activity: 6

Merit: 0

Quote from: BTCscraper on April 28, 2013, 04:51:47 AM

I'm on the fence with Butterfly Labs. I'm willing to buy, but won't do so until I know they have shipped regular commercial units in quantity.

Indeed, it's a bit of a Catch-22. By the time they've proven themselves and I would be willing to buy, the unit won't be worth buying.