Would you be able to win if you were to play a fair dice?

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Quote from: EvilPanda on February 14, 2015, 09:11:55 AM

You should be able to win with martingale if the casino isn't rigged.

Mathematics and common sense in general speak differently. In the short term with luck on your side you may be able to profit, but the reality is that there are ridiculous patches of bad luck (ie. doog reported some guy got hit with 31 losses in a row running martingale). The only way to profit with martingale is if both:

a) you have infinite money (why are you gambling then - for the lols?)
b) there is no max house bet (which there always is otherwise you'd be able to bankrupt the casino very easily if you got lucky)

So basically the house edge will always get you if you play long enough (or just have shitty luck).

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: Phildo on February 14, 2015, 05:05:08 PM

Martingale is stupid because you can win small or lose big.

15+ win/loss streaks are possible. How much do you win if you win 15 in a row using martingale? How much do you lose when you lose 15 in a row?

As for the original question, if the odds are 50/50 and the payouts are 50/50, you expect to win just as much as you lose, there would be no strategy to win more, you win if you are lucky, you lose if you are unlucky. It would be a little easier to make money than a game with a house edge becasue you don't have to beat that, but you will still have no advantage.

This is the best explained and correct answer.
The problem is that human mind has a flaw: it's programmed to hope.
And that's why most people still think that Martingale is a great approach (I also thought that until I started "testing" it live).

We don't (want to) understand that if a dice has 50% chance to return "high", that 50% is met if for an infinite number of tries. That means that losing streaks of 20-30 is not unusual. If you have an infinite amount of money, you'll regain your loses back.

Phildo

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Quote from: EvilPanda on February 14, 2015, 09:11:55 AM

You should be able to win with martingale if the casino isn't rigged. Try it out by playing heads or tails or real dice. The only problem is that you'd have to start with really low bets and the chances of you winning big are low too, but at least you won't lose much this way. Unfortunately, some games are rigged to prevent people from using this strategy. I've seen a post by some guy, who had over 15 consecutive losses in a 50% dice game, after he won some money using martingale.

Martingale is stupid because you can win small or lose big.

15+ win/loss streaks are possible. How much do you win if you win 15 in a row using martingale? How much do you lose when you lose 15 in a row?

As for the original question, if the odds are 50/50 and the payouts are 50/50, you expect to win just as much as you lose, there would be no strategy to win more, you win if you are lucky, you lose if you are unlucky. It would be a little easier to make money than a game with a house edge becasue you don't have to beat that, but you will still have no advantage.

cazkooo

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Quote from: EvilPanda on February 14, 2015, 04:38:10 PM

Quote from: nikona on February 14, 2015, 03:18:42 PM

Quote from: WaffleMaster on February 14, 2015, 03:13:52 PM

Quote from: EvilPanda on February 14, 2015, 09:11:55 AM

You should be able to win with martingale if the casino isn't rigged. Try it out by playing heads or tails or real dice. The only problem is that you'd have to start with really low bets and the chances of you winning big are low too, but at least you won't lose much this way. Unfortunately, some games are rigged to prevent people from using this strategy. I've seen a post by some guy, who had over 15 consecutive losses in a 50% dice game, after he won some money using martingale.

15 consecutive loses is nothing haha. Players should readily plan for at least 22+ if not 30+.

Yeah mate..15-20 in 2x bets is pretty common now...i think everyone should be prepared for it!

Still this isn't by any means normal, even if you accept this is how the system works.

martingale isnt worth it for long run anyway

lets say you hit a bad streak of losing , either way you need big bankroll for martingale to continue

EvilPanda

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Quote from: nikona on February 14, 2015, 03:18:42 PM

Quote from: WaffleMaster on February 14, 2015, 03:13:52 PM

Quote from: EvilPanda on February 14, 2015, 09:11:55 AM

You should be able to win with martingale if the casino isn't rigged. Try it out by playing heads or tails or real dice. The only problem is that you'd have to start with really low bets and the chances of you winning big are low too, but at least you won't lose much this way. Unfortunately, some games are rigged to prevent people from using this strategy. I've seen a post by some guy, who had over 15 consecutive losses in a 50% dice game, after he won some money using martingale.

15 consecutive loses is nothing haha. Players should readily plan for at least 22+ if not 30+.

Yeah mate..15-20 in 2x bets is pretty common now...i think everyone should be prepared for it!

Still this isn't by any means normal, even if you accept this is how the system works.

nikona

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Quote from: WaffleMaster on February 14, 2015, 03:13:52 PM

Quote from: EvilPanda on February 14, 2015, 09:11:55 AM

You should be able to win with martingale if the casino isn't rigged. Try it out by playing heads or tails or real dice. The only problem is that you'd have to start with really low bets and the chances of you winning big are low too, but at least you won't lose much this way. Unfortunately, some games are rigged to prevent people from using this strategy. I've seen a post by some guy, who had over 15 consecutive losses in a 50% dice game, after he won some money using martingale.

15 consecutive loses is nothing haha. Players should readily plan for at least 22+ if not 30+.

Yeah mate..15-20 in 2x bets is pretty common now...i think everyone should be prepared for it!

WaffleMaster

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Quote from: EvilPanda on February 14, 2015, 09:11:55 AM

You should be able to win with martingale if the casino isn't rigged. Try it out by playing heads or tails or real dice. The only problem is that you'd have to start with really low bets and the chances of you winning big are low too, but at least you won't lose much this way. Unfortunately, some games are rigged to prevent people from using this strategy. I've seen a post by some guy, who had over 15 consecutive losses in a 50% dice game, after he won some money using martingale.

15 consecutive loses is nothing haha. Players should readily plan for at least 22+ if not 30+.

EvilPanda

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You should be able to win with martingale if the casino isn't rigged. Try it out by playing heads or tails or real dice. The only problem is that you'd have to start with really low bets and the chances of you winning big are low too, but at least you won't lose much this way. Unfortunately, some games are rigged to prevent people from using this strategy. I've seen a post by some guy, who had over 15 consecutive losses in a 50% dice game, after he won some money using martingale.

erre

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With a 0% house edge and really random numbers, u can expect to win 0% on the long run, no matter how you bet.

You can also martingale your very big bankroll and achieve big profits for a lot of bets, but on the long run u will for sure get busted (also with a 0% bankroll).

Remember that a 1% bankroll is 100 times bigger than a 0.001% bankroll.l, it means 100 time more losses to you (on the long run).

On the short run, u can " easly" turn 1 to 1.2 on every dice site, after that u have a 49% chanche of turning it to 2.4 and so on....that's why more u win, more easy to win more...

adaseb

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No you would not. THe problem is not the degree of uncertainly it emotions. People would get emotional and they would lose. Thats why lotteries and casinos always make tons of money. Its not the edge. its the fear and greed of money.

Euthanasiaa

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Quote from: XinXan on February 13, 2015, 03:41:50 PM

Quote from: Nunu on February 13, 2015, 03:39:12 PM

i dont think any form of gambling is fair.. or wouldnt casinos be out of business.

IM NOT TALKING ABOUT CASINOS BUT ABOUT A 50% 50% dice, you guys dont get it??

50% is still damn 50 % a freaking low chance to win actually. no you would NOT be able to ''win''. you either lose or stop playing after you win once.

sherbyspark

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Quote from: XinXan on February 13, 2015, 01:42:32 PM

I mean if you would have 50% chance of winning would any strategy make you win 100%? I always wondered since you cant win on normal casinos because the odds are against you but here in a perfectly fair dice would you be able to win ?

You should edit it to say dice without a house edge. Dice is already provably fair.
As for winning it without the edge, its a gamble again. But no one can guarantee winning for sure.

ajaxmoor

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Quote from: bitbaby on February 14, 2015, 01:15:46 AM

Quote from: XinXan on February 13, 2015, 01:42:32 PM

I mean if you would have 50% chance of winning would any strategy make you win 100%?

No. players rely on making small bets and wait for the lose streak so that they can bet big on the next winning bet but they forget that odd remains the same. If they get lucky they think that their strategy is working but it's not the truth.

Like he said no strategy in gambling is a sure shot way to win. It all relies on luck. Strategies might help you last longer but not win

boopy265420

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I play with the strategy of winning and pausing , I mean when I win 30 times then I logout for 10 minutes . Then come back and play again I am always in winning position this way.

activebiz

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most gambling sites are not fair. if they were anyone could make a lot of money. IV played dice with 97% chance of winning and still lost 5 times in a row. maybe ull get some luck with new sites.

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Quote from: XinXan on February 13, 2015, 01:42:32 PM

I mean if you would have 50% chance of winning would any strategy make you win 100%? I always wondered since you cant win on normal casinos because the odds are against you but here in a perfectly fair dice would you be able to win ?

Assuming insane parameters (i.e. a infinite amount of money) such strategy can exist. If you're playing with a fair dice (or even unfair dice), simply martingale. Grin

bitfilliates

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With a good strategy you could make some money but there is never any garuntee to win.

Sarthak

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Hey! A Dice Game With No House Edge Does Exist!

Google "DirectDice"! And find the strategy on directdice yourself Tongue

s1ng

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Quote from: XinXan on February 13, 2015, 01:42:32 PM

I mean if you would have 50% chance of winning would any strategy make you win 100%? I always wondered since you cant win on normal casinos because the odds are against you but here in a perfectly fair dice would you be able to win ?

The house is prevent you from winning.

No house edge , everybody can win. Cool

Example : on the dice , if you can predict what number will come out than you will win 100 % Wink

So you need a very very pure luck to win 100%

bitbaby

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Quote from: XinXan on February 13, 2015, 01:42:32 PM

I mean if you would have 50% chance of winning would any strategy make you win 100%?

No. players rely on making small bets and wait for the lose streak so that they can bet big on the next winning bet but they forget that odd remains the same. If they get lucky they think that their strategy is working but it's not the truth.

Topic: Would you be able to win if you were to play a fair dice? (Read 1042 times)