Topic: Would you buy/use Bitcoin if you knew its price would not reach a new ATH? - page 2. (Read 871 times)

I dont understand what have using Bitcoin do with Bitcoin reaching ATH. I am cautious using Bitcoin for some other reasons then if it will reach ATH or not. Information who owned Bitcoins I have before me. And information I will give to the one I will spend my Bitcoin to.

Well, we can still use it for other things. although it did not reach the new ATH, at the very least, it could only be higher and lower. however, I also might still need it, it's just that I will use it something needs. Well, we currently use bitcoin without knowing whether bitcoin will reach the new ATH or not.

Collector's value? If Bitcoin would be reduced to that it's trading volume would probably be near 0.
I voted for the second option. I haven't bought any bitcoins for a long time since I went all in long ago and now have to spend all my fiat on my daily needs. I'd still use it and hold it if there was no new ATH, although I feel like it's still greatly undervalued at 9k. I'd appreciate a stable price between 15k and 20k. 

I think so.

Since people would start to spend Bitcoin left and right, I think that would also affect the price. That just means Bitcoin would be more liquid and I think that would also mean that in the long run, it would reach another ATH. It is still decentralized so it can still affect the price with that. Either way, I will still use my Bitcoin since it is not that the ATH matters, it is the convinience I'm having using it.

Yes, this is a good question, because it is actually one of the key questions in cryptocurrency. I think that a significant part of cryptocurrency holders still hold bitcoins because they hope to profit from the growth of its price. I remember that once a survey was conducted on this topic, and then the majority answered that they would not buy bitcoin if they knew that it would not grow in price.
Here the question is posed of a somewhat different plan. Bitcoin will periodically rise slightly and then fall, but in general, its price will not rise. In this case, Bitcoin may be of interest to traders. But in this case, the general prospect of its use would have more questions than answers.

Thank you for editing the poll and make it clear, I really appreciated it.

If that so, I will still vote for number 1.
I guess people will still buy bitcoin no matter if they can earn money or not, because, for bitcoiners, they will want to have more and more bitcoin.
That is what people do if they believe in bitcoin. But some of them will wait for a further crash because that can help them buy bitcoin at a lower price.

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I have experience in the past.
When I talk about bitcoin with some of the early bitcoin adopters in 2013-2015, they said that it is better to buy more and more bitcoin at a price at that year, even if we are difficult to earn money from bitcoin, because we believe that the bitcoin price will increase so high.
What they said has proven in 2017-2018 because, in that year, they have the biggest chance to sell bitcoin for almost $20k per 1 bitcoin, and they have more than 5 bitcoin.
Their initial money is less than $5k.

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I think that situation will happen again if bitcoin has a long stable because people who have bitcoin right now, would buy more bitcoin at a price now. They will repeat history by booking a lot of money from bitcoin in the future.

People do forget where bitcoin is trading right now but keep demanding it to be performing like "top currency of the year" all the times. (I remember bitcoin was marked as worst currency of the year in 2014 but in 2017 topped as best currency of the year). It is always investors expectations to have 10x growth of all the assets where they have invested. They do fail to realize the basic price action which ends up usually spreading FUDs.

When people agreed cryptocurrencies as good investments then it implicitly denotes they are growing over the time or at least it is having good volatility to make use for both traders and investors (by volatility we can assume it is having both rising and falling trends as no asset can be into falling trend when we market as a good investment opportunity).

   2. Yes, even if I don't earn money with it, e.g. for payments and savings.
   Bitcoin opened my mind for decentralization. Opportunity to make profit from investing is great, nobody can deny that, but
the idea of the better system where all people involved will have a vote sound better than the system we currently have.
   I support crypto-currencies for future, it can make changes we need for a better world, and that can be profitable for us
who started earlier!

From the day of bitcoin into usage there is periodic growth with time. At some point there is unexpected price increase which boosted the expectation among the cryptocurrency users. This doesn't mean that bitcoin needs to reach ath quite often. As most people my preference of bitcoin and other cryptocurrency were a form of investment. Till date it has provided with a profit out of the growth and same continues as the demand keeps growing.

Yes, as I would use it for payments and savings, especially if it keeps on growing... I think it would turn into a less speculative asset and it would assume a definitive "store of value " characteristic
If it would remain stagnant I would be less enthusiastic about it but would hold some anyway

I made a small edit to option 2, because I suspect there were still misunderstandings - I think some may have voted for it, even if they depend on Bitcoin earnings. As the general sense of the poll options has not changed, I have not reset the poll.

@traderethereum: What you write is not wrong, only that what you write is not exactly what I want to achieve with the poll. I'm not trying to know if Bitcoin's price will be stable now (In fact, I think not).

Instead my intention is to know what would happen if we see a long stable or bearish phase. "Long" in the sense of longer than any stable phase or bear market we've seen until to date - approximately longer than a year, which was the maximum length of past bear markets in 2013-15 (~14 months)  and 2017/18 (~12 months). The question is: Would people keep using and buying Bitcoin or not? Would they wait for a further crash (option 3)?

With ICOs/STOs etc. I wasn't referring to "altcoins" in general, but tokens which correspond to real-world businesses. Even if Bitcoin becomes a "real currency" and stabilizes, these tokens would continue to be volatile, just like stocks today, because businesses are successful or not, what would be reflected by the token price.

I believe that today it is foolish to use Bitcoin as a means of payment, since the cryptocurrency has not yet reached those peaks to be appreciated. Therefore, I will never spend my bitcoins. On the other hand, bitcoin today is one of the best cryptocurrencies for long-term investments and even without 100% guarantees and a forecast for the near future, I still invested a certain amount in Bitcoin, but I did it much earlier.

Holding bitcoin will not give much profit than use bitcoin to trade unless the price surge suddenly. I think it is hard for bitcoin to stable because the max supply is not already reached, and we are still seeing the next halving in the next few years.
Maybe if the halving amount is reduced to less than 1 bitcoin, the price can be stable, but I don't know.
But I agree that bitcoin needs to be stable to become a real currency.

In these situations, bitcoin already stable for a moment, and the price is not down below $9k and not up to $9,500, and the price has always changed to that price over and over.
If we are still in these situations until the end of this year or next year, we can try to search for the profit from the altcoin or ICO or IEO or whatever its name.

I am sure that bitcoin can become real currency in the future, and we still need an ICO or IEO or even existing altcoin to help us to make money or profit. We need to accept bitcoin to be stable if we want to use bitcoin as a currency. But we already have a stable coin which is not too volatile as bitcoin.

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I am sorry if I am wrong at this point because I am not too understand about the economic law or something that kind.

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If so, they can leave bitcoin as it is without the want to use or buy another bitcoin because the price is down.
I think they can answer "It depends, maybe after a substantial price drop" because they can buy more bitcoin with less money when the price drops.
But we don't know what they reason to answer no, and we only guess for what they think

Because people now think to make a profit from bitcoin from investment and trading.
Boring here is about we are difficult to analyze, predict, or knowing when the time to trade because we are hard to see the chance to enter the market.
If we can not get the sign to enter the market, that can lead us to buy at a high price, and it will be hard to sell it back for some time.
I use bitcoin as an investment, and as a way to make money, but I accept the price fluctuate. Although I am not good at analysis, I believe that if I keep trying to analyze, I will get that time to enter the market.
Btw, we need profit, and I believe you want it too

But once again, maybe I am wrong, so I apologize.

the thing that makes people interested in bitcoin is not only the high prices, but also because of the fast volatility. people can make a lot of money in other ways than by waiting for a new ATH. however, if the price can still be higher than this, I think people will still buy and hold bitcoin according to the target they want.

Yes, I'd still buy it. I never really saw it as an investment for some reason. Sure, at first, I bought BTC and was waiting for an ATH, but as time passed, well, my mindset changed quite a bit and started using my supply of BTC every now and then. I still hold a bit of them and buy them every now and then, but even without the chances of achieving another ATH, Bitcoin being an option to buy some stuff I want without finding out who I am seems pretty nice to me.

This is just a sad mindset and has probably failed what Satoshi's goal really is tbh. Well, not that I can blame you, the community up to now has pretty much lead us to think of Bitcoin as an investment after all. Still, "boring" seems kind of taking it as Bitcoin now being "useless". It's not like the only characteristic of Bitcoin is being a speculative asset. You're basically blinding your eyes to a majority of what it can do due to being blinded by, yes, profit.

You could, in this hypothetical situation, maybe not profit that much only from holding it. But think about what Bitcoin wants to be. If it wants to be a real currency, then it has to become stable eventually.

In "real currencies", i.e. those that become an unit of account, you only profit from hodling "something" if this hodling involves risk (this is one of the basic Capitalist principles), for example investing in stocks. To profit, instead, in a "Bitcoin world" you could invest in ICOs and hope that the projects you support are successful. But holding the currency should be, most of the time, only "hold your value" approximately.

The question is if Bitcoin can become this kind of "real currency" or not. If there are not enough user supporting it without needing an ICO, then it would crash in an insane manner when people realize that they won't become rich from hodling.

Futures are one reason, for sure. But the other reason could be increased liquidity from other sources. If Bitcoin becomes massively used as a currency then this could lead into even more "boredom".

There is one big difference to the last halving: Now there are Futures for Bitcoin. And Futures have a stabilizing effect for the underlining commodity. So that could be a reason, why the Bitcoin volatility will shrink on the long term.

If that happens, I guess we will be in a boring mode because we can not profit from bitcoin.
Probably, that can be a way for people to save their bitcoin, and they will try to search for the profit from the altcoin market.
But personally, I don't think that the price stays stable for a long time. If we look at the market situations now, we see that bitcoin price stays stable, but the price is not mean it stays at one price only, but the price still up and down.
People who have confidence and believe in bitcoin will stay and will try hard to earn more bitcoin because they believe that bitcoin price can increase so high.
But I don't know which group will be bigger because that group does not show themselves in public.

Yep, still that's what answer 1 is meant for. Answer 2 is for people who don't depend on Bitcoin for their income. They use Bitcoin, for example, because they think it's safer for savings than fiat, even without big price increases - e.g. people in countries like Venezuela. Or because they think it's safer than money on a bank account because the bank could go bankrupt, or fiat become worthless. Or because they're using it in a way it's more convenient than fiat, like international transfers.

The background of the poll is explained a bit in the answer to buwaytress. In short: I want to know what would happen if the price stays stable for a long time: who would leave, who could stay, and which group tends to be bigger.

@Silber: thanks for your honest answer

This exhibits the futile nature of the question. In a free market, there are no bounds on highs or lows. It's like asking, what if the US dollar could never drop in value, or what if gold was pegged to $1,700/oz? Answers to these questions don't yield much value since they pervert the very idea of markets. Obviously if gold (or BTC) traded at a permanently fixed price, people wouldn't use them as a speculative vehicle anymore. If BTC was guaranteed to have no upside potential, people would obviously cease long term investments, and people might just short it into the ground.

I'm not sure what that really tells us about the spectrum of BTC users though. It's just common sense. People invest based on risk vs. reward. If you take away the potential reward, they will stop investing.