Would you risk 10 BTC at 80% to get a 1.2x payout?

Mike Mayor

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If you going to risk 10btc to make only 2 it seems too risky. Rather risk 10btc St 50% or 2 BTC at 50% then you accept the loss and get 8 BTC or win and have 12bfc. Having 8 left is better then having 0 left.

Quote from: mrcash02 on May 31, 2017, 10:31:21 AM

Quote from: Barcode_ on May 31, 2017, 10:17:00 AM

It is hard to say whether players would be risking 10 BTC at 80% win chance to get a 1.2x payout win because I have seen some players using this strategy and they did really manage to get some profit from this method. but this method doesn't suit my style as I feel the payout is way too low and if I lost just a couple of bets, It would be really scary to start chasing the losses back.

You must be too unlucky to lose twice or three time with 80% chance at first bets you make. On long term surely this consecutive loss streak comes, but for the first bets it's very hard to happen. All you need to do is to win once with these configurations, one bet win is sufficient to make a big profit and enjoy it. Some gamblers like to do the inverse, lower chances to win, but bigger reward multiplier.

You can even loss the first time. What if you lose the first time ? You think it won't open untill only the second or third but if it happens the first time it will hurt.

mrcash02

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Quote from: Barcode_ on May 31, 2017, 10:17:00 AM

It is hard to say whether players would be risking 10 BTC at 80% win chance to get a 1.2x payout win because I have seen some players using this strategy and they did really manage to get some profit from this method. but this method doesn't suit my style as I feel the payout is way too low and if I lost just a couple of bets, It would be really scary to start chasing the losses back.

You must be too unlucky to lose twice or three time with 80% chance at first bets you make. On long term surely this consecutive loss streak comes, but for the first bets it's very hard to happen. All you need to do is to win once with these configurations, one bet win is sufficient to make a big profit and enjoy it. Some gamblers like to do the inverse, lower chances to win, but bigger reward multiplier.

Barcode_

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It is hard to say whether players would be risking 10 BTC at 80% win chance to get a 1.2x payout win because I have seen some players using this strategy and they did really manage to get some profit from this method. but this method doesn't suit my style as I feel the payout is way too low and if I lost just a couple of bets, It would be really scary to start chasing the losses back.

maydna

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Quote from: michaelch on May 30, 2017, 05:08:19 PM

Quote from: Xavofat on May 30, 2017, 03:12:44 PM

Well the casino, dice site or whatever has a large amount of money to mess around with. You don't, unless you enjoy throwing it away by gambling.

The chances are that it'd be like: you have 1 BTC, the casino has 100-1000 BTC. If you keep betting the money forever, the probability of you winning so many times in a row that you beat the casino are mind-bogglingly small.

Considering that computer randomisation isn't perfect randomisation anyway, it makes your chance about zero.

Actually, it depends on the variance of the game, your bet amount and size of bankroll. If the variance is small, your bets are small and your bankroll is large, the chances of you losing all your money is small, assuming zero house edge.

i think no matter how much the percentage it is, if i use for example 10 btc, i don't want to use it for just playing gambling and i don't want to risk my bitcoin for only playing gambling. its better for me to keep that 10 btc in my wallet and not using for any purpose or at least i can use it for doing trading for only 1-2 btc so i can increase my bitcoin amount with more profit. its too risky to use 10 btc at 80% just to get a 1.2x payout because we don't know how good our luck in the gambling games.

michaelch

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Quote from: Xavofat on May 30, 2017, 03:12:44 PM

Well the casino, dice site or whatever has a large amount of money to mess around with. You don't, unless you enjoy throwing it away by gambling.

The chances are that it'd be like: you have 1 BTC, the casino has 100-1000 BTC. If you keep betting the money forever, the probability of you winning so many times in a row that you beat the casino are mind-bogglingly small.

Considering that computer randomisation isn't perfect randomisation anyway, it makes your chance about zero.

Actually, it depends on the variance of the game, your bet amount and size of bankroll. If the variance is small, your bets are small and your bankroll is large, the chances of you losing all your money is small, assuming zero house edge.

Xavofat

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Did you see that ludicrous display last night?

Quote from: ImHash on May 30, 2017, 12:57:05 PM

Quote from: Xavofat on May 30, 2017, 12:51:21 PM

It's absolutely no different to risking 10 Bitcoin at 50% to get a 1.2x payout.

The numbers may look nice, but this doesn't change the reality of it at all.

It's still gambling based on probability, which is never a good idea - even if the house edge is zero you will lose, because if you play forever you usually lose all your money quicker than the house does (which has a larger amount of money in total than you do).

How'd you figured that you could lose even if the house edge is zero? have you ever tried to simulate dice with zero edge before?
If the house edge is zero you could have a so called "chance" to win, what matters is your odd.

Well the casino, dice site or whatever has a large amount of money to mess around with. You don't, unless you enjoy throwing it away by gambling.

The chances are that it'd be like: you have 1 BTC, the casino has 100-1000 BTC. If you keep betting the money forever, the probability of you winning so many times in a row that you beat the casino are mind-bogglingly small.

Considering that computer randomisation isn't perfect randomisation anyway, it makes your chance about zero.

BitFinnese

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Quote from: RealPhotoshoper on May 30, 2017, 01:02:26 PM

Quote from: Xavofat on May 30, 2017, 12:51:21 PM

It's absolutely no different to risking 10 Bitcoin at 50% to get a 1.2x payout.

The numbers may look nice, but this doesn't change the reality of it at all.

It's still gambling based on probability, which is never a good idea - even if the house edge is zero you will lose, because if you play forever you usually lose all your money quicker than the house does (which has a larger amount of money in total than you do).

Yeaaa i think people just always lured to something too good to be true and easy.
They think with high chance bet setting your bet won't get lost soon and earn ptofit easily.
That is totally wrong , high chance winning sometimes feel like trap.

Precisely! Even at 98% odd there is still a possibility that we lose the bet. I won't rely on the odd thing because it might be a bait to lure us into a trap of betting huge amount in a high odd dice roll and risking them just to win 2% of our bet. Definitely I wont take that chance. Id rather bet a smaller amount and play with 50% odd .

RealPhotoshoper

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Quote from: Xavofat on May 30, 2017, 12:51:21 PM

It's absolutely no different to risking 10 Bitcoin at 50% to get a 1.2x payout.

The numbers may look nice, but this doesn't change the reality of it at all.

It's still gambling based on probability, which is never a good idea - even if the house edge is zero you will lose, because if you play forever you usually lose all your money quicker than the house does (which has a larger amount of money in total than you do).

Yeaaa i think people just always lured to something too good to be true and easy.
They think with high chance bet setting your bet won't get lost soon and earn ptofit easily.
That is totally wrong , high chance winning sometimes feel like trap.

ImHash

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Quote from: Xavofat on May 30, 2017, 12:51:21 PM

It's absolutely no different to risking 10 Bitcoin at 50% to get a 1.2x payout.

The numbers may look nice, but this doesn't change the reality of it at all.

It's still gambling based on probability, which is never a good idea - even if the house edge is zero you will lose, because if you play forever you usually lose all your money quicker than the house does (which has a larger amount of money in total than you do).

How'd you figured that you could lose even if the house edge is zero? have you ever tried to simulate dice with zero edge before?
If the house edge is zero you could have a so called "chance" to win, what matters is your odd.

Xavofat

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Did you see that ludicrous display last night?

It's absolutely no different to risking 10 Bitcoin at 50% to get a 1.2x payout.

The numbers may look nice, but this doesn't change the reality of it at all.

It's still gambling based on probability, which is never a good idea - even if the house edge is zero you will lose, because if you play forever you usually lose all your money quicker than the house does (which has a larger amount of money in total than you do).

iram3130

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Quote from: bering on May 30, 2017, 12:41:15 PM

Quote from: joebrook on May 29, 2017, 05:02:47 AM

Even though the probability of winning is good,there is to much at risk here and the payout is quite small to risk such am amount. I will pass.

yes it's true that nothing to sure in gambling even the percentages was pretty high to win but it's not automatically won and i can't imagine if i lost with those amount suddenly probably i would regret my decission in my entire life

I would not risk my bitcoins every if there is a risk of 1-2%. It's not worth it. There is no meaning in being greedy for some bucks, of you hold the bitcoins then it'll make more profit in some months or a year maximum.

bering

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Quote from: joebrook on May 29, 2017, 05:02:47 AM

Even though the probability of winning is good,there is to much at risk here and the payout is quite small to risk such am amount. I will pass.

yes it's true that nothing to sure in gambling even the percentages was pretty high to win but it's not automatically won and i can't imagine if i lost with those amount suddenly probably i would regret my decission in my entire life

joebrook

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Even though the probability of winning is good,there is to much at risk here and the payout is quite small to risk such am amount. I will pass.

paul00

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Quote from: BossMacko on May 29, 2017, 04:46:10 AM

If ever i had 10 btc or more i will not bet it all in one round even if in 98% chance because the result is unpredictable. House always win especially if you are betting big amount of bitcoin. There is always a high risk if you bet all your balance.

Me too I wouldnt take that risk 1.2 is a silent killer even if you bet 1.1 there is still posibility you will lost your profit but why not if you are so that rich use YOLO. Grin

BossMacko

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If ever i had 10 btc or more i will not bet it all in one round even if in 98% chance because the result is unpredictable. House always win especially if you are betting big amount of bitcoin. There is always a high risk if you bet all your balance.

xypos

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Quote from: jmigdlc99 on May 22, 2017, 10:16:36 AM

Would you risk 10 BTC at 80% to get a 1.2x payout? or even at 90% for a 1.1x?

Seems so easy to get a big payout. Just not quite sure if i can push the roll dice button tho.

But the easy money is so..

It's not esay money if it's -EV. When you bet 10 BTC in an addicted gambler's brain you're telling yourself that it's a certain 20% win but really if you look at the stats you'll be scared at how often someone hits a red on that probability.

Especially when the standard house edge of 1% should produce a 82.5% probability at 1.2x payout, meaning that 80% isn't worth it at all.

Also, taking into consideration that 10 btc is a life changing sum for me, definitely a no-no.

mirakal

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Quote from: jmigdlc99 on May 22, 2017, 10:16:36 AM

Would you risk 10 BTC at 80% to get a 1.2x payout? or even at 90% for a 1.1x?

Seems so easy to get a big payout. Just not quite sure if i can push the roll dice button tho.

But the easy money is so..

I would definitely not gonna do that, your luck is around the corner, what if bad luck will come then you cry the whole day. Damn, it will only happen if I can afford that big amount of money, the reality I do not have a savings close to that amount and I can't even imagine to lose 1 BTC in dice.

giveen

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Yes i would as i recently found a strategy which can me 0.04 btc profit throught 1.2 payout. But of course i never gonna put 10 btc max would be 0.01 btc. The strategy is simple deposit 0.1 btc and gamble with 0.01 btc at 80% chance. I calculated and on average found after every 7-10 wins continuously you get a loss. But if you are doing 80% for more than 30 min you will start losing after 3-5 wins which is loss in long run.
Ps i know I'm not a gambler and really against gambling but all funds used were profit of my investment made on the site.

michaelch

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I hope everybody here knows this game is a -0.04 game? It is a negative EV game, which means you'll definitely lose if played in the long-run.

noictib

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Quote from: jmigdlc99 on May 22, 2017, 10:16:36 AM

Would you risk 10 BTC at 80% to get a 1.2x payout? or even at 90% for a 1.1x?

Seems so easy to get a big payout. Just not quite sure if i can push the roll dice button tho.

But the easy money is so..

In your thread I didn't care that what amount I can get , how much , risk , what is return amount if won , and what is risked Bitcoin amount .
But I see that you are asking for the gambling and make big earning with dice game , Here I would like to ask you that why you prefer to make gambling with this big amount .
If you can invest this amount of Bitcoin in the trading of the altcoin then I am 100% that once you will get return of your investment with huge profits , instead to get loss in single bet at the casino .
So here I will never take any risk with my Bitcoin at all because my earning of the Bitcoin is got by me due to hardwork of 1 year and I can't loss at one second .

Topic: Would you risk 10 BTC at 80% to get a 1.2x payout? (Read 3280 times)