Wrong Predictions as price keep failing! - page 4.

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Quote from: Ayers on May 20, 2023, 08:10:15 AM

Quote from: Kemarit on May 19, 2023, 12:36:25 PM

Yes, it's really different to predict the price of BTC, although there is TA that can help us.

If technical analysis can help us predict the price of bitcoin, then why do we constantly fail to predict the movements of bitcoin? Even the bitcoin bull run earlier this year was almost unpredictable, I daresay no one could have predicted it.

Doesn't technical analysis also involve reading charts which is exactly what is done if one is looking at the historical records? They are basically connected with each other, and if historical charts indicate that the price will go up from here and touch $40k before it starts correcting itself again, I'm sure a technical analyzer would say the same thing.

However, I don't agree with that. If the price goes that high from here, it is not going to get any correction from there, even if it does, it wouldn't be higher than a $2k or hardly $3k drop from that point since the market will enter the bull run if that happens.

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Quote from: Godlovesyou on May 16, 2023, 10:02:02 AM

Nobody bitcoin price prediction has work this season, I told my friends early January that this year will still be difficult for bitcoin to rise since they're still blocks on digestive and ingestive policies of government, why bitcoin should not stay by government. But they argued me to a fault but I knew bitcoin will not gets to $40k this year. The price will definitely rise but not at the moment. Do you predict the price to any level year?

No one can predict the exact price of bitcoin all are just a prediction ot means no sure or there are still chances of changes even if we will see a big price hike we cannot say that the bull is coming it can still possibly going down because of some reason so it is unpredictable and don't easily believe on those prediction they are only like us who predict and sometimes their prediction is wrong.

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I also made a wrong prediction, when January could increase by more than 40%, I was optimistic that April would repeat the positive trend that occurred in 2021, unfortunately the price continued to decline and it seems difficult to return to $ 30k until now, but let's not panic and sell at the current price, hold on for at least another year so we can make a profit.

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Quote from: _BlackStar on May 21, 2023, 04:43:11 PM

-snip-
And you should know that I am an adopter of both analyzes as far as my investment plan is in bitcoin.

It sounds pretty good when you adopt both analyses. You must have understood the advantages and disadvantages of both.
But what is also decisive is how the psychology of each person in trading, this is also very important.
No matter how good the analysis is if their psychology is not okay, it will risk the final result of the trade.

Quote from: _BlackStar on May 21, 2023, 04:43:11 PM

Then from that, we all seem optimistic about the increase potential after the halving. Bitcoin should be able to hit new ATHs in 12 - 18 months after the halving, but I'm not very ATH oriented especially about how I profit.

The increase after halving is the desire of all traders and it will be a moment where everyone's profits will multiply for those who still survive.
Reaching the new ATH or not at the next Halving does not matter.
We just need to buy now and hold it, even if it hits the last Halving at around $60k it is already amazing.

_BlackStar

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Quote from: taufik123 on May 20, 2023, 05:32:15 PM

Quote from: _BlackStar on May 20, 2023, 04:00:08 PM

-snip-

One of the important things is indeed technical analysis. After all, everything will be based on past chart history and we can make predictions with technical analysis. Although in some market conditions technical analysis does not work, but in many conditions technical analysis will always be needed.
An important requirement is to know how to make predictions with technicals, so you will know how the next market movement.
This has become a basic trading that must be known.

and Fundamentals are complementary or will always be the same as technicals.
When Bitcoin's potential will be reached in the next Halving cycle, this will give Bitcoin good potential.
Fundamentals include a lot of news about Bitcoin good or bad so this will affect the state of the market.

Fundamental and technical analysis will tell how the market is really doing. and the impact of Halving that will occur this time will certainly be very influential for the crypto market, we only need to wait another 1 year to be able to see Bitcoin's increase during Halving and hopefully it will be an increase that brings Bitcoin to a new ATH.

In conclusion, I believe that technical and fundamental analysis is needed in making price predictions.
You have explained it well and I shouldn't doubt it even though prices can never be predicted with certainty. And you should know that I am an adopter of both analyzes as far as my investment plan is in bitcoin.

Then from that, we all seem optimistic about the increase potential after the halving. Bitcoin should be able to hit new ATHs in 12 - 18 months after the halving, but I'm not very ATH oriented especially about how I profit.

Quote from: Ayers on May 21, 2023, 07:36:17 AM

Quote from: _BlackStar on May 20, 2023, 04:00:08 PM

-snip-

Do not misunderstand me. I want to say that I don't fully believe in technical analysis, it's not that I never believe in it.

Oh no mate, calm down - I'm just explaining my part. Cheesy

Ayers

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Quote from: _BlackStar on May 20, 2023, 04:00:08 PM

Quote from: Ayers on May 20, 2023, 08:10:15 AM

I don't fully believe in technical analysis, but based on what has happened historically, I also believe bitcoin could hit $40k or more before continuing to correct again.

But actually technical analysis will also really support your investment plan – historically you also need to look at the charts, meaning you still need to pay attention to the technicals as well.

The fundamentals and technicalities are needed so that investors can have a belief about the potential price that bitcoin can achieve in two different cycles. Less than 1 year from now, the halving will happen - it will definitely make bitcoin gain a positive impact especially regarding the price.

Do not misunderstand me. I want to say that I don't fully believe in technical analysis, it's not that I never believe in it. An investor making market predictions requires a combination of factors, and technical or fundamental analysis is a part of that. But we shouldn't be overly trusting or completely dependent on TA, especially in a market as susceptible to manipulation as crypto. The market has not only us retail investors but also sharks, whales, and market makers… and if we can analyze the market, they will too. If everyone relies on TA to predict, meaning everyone knows what will happen in the future, who will be the loser in this game? That's why I'm not very interested in technical analysis.

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Quote from: Godlovesyou on May 16, 2023, 10:02:02 AM

But they argued me to a fault but I knew bitcoin will not gets to $40k this year. The price will definitely rise but not at the moment.

I'd see the reason why your friend argued with you because you both have different and opposite opinions about Bitcoin. And he is convinced that Bitcoin will rise and go over $40k which you are also pushing your argument that it won't. Even, I have no point also to agree with you because the market will either pump or dump, and most of all, nobody can tell what will happen. But based on your statement, you are really sure that it was impossible which is likely possible. In fact, you believe that the price will pump and it can be possible this year as well.

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If it was easy predicting bitcoins price then everybody would be doing it. Look how many people in late 2021 were thinking we would go to $100K or something crazy like $1M.

Then in 2022 as we kept pulling back all the financial influencers were saying to buy at $50K then $40K then $30K and then $20K and finally told to short at $15K.

Hence why you shouldn’t listen to these people.

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Quote from: _BlackStar on May 20, 2023, 04:00:08 PM

But actually technical analysis will also really support your investment plan – historically you also need to look at the charts, meaning you still need to pay attention to the technicals as well.

The fundamentals and technicalities are needed so that investors can have a belief about the potential price that bitcoin can achieve in two different cycles. Less than 1 year from now, the halving will happen - it will definitely make bitcoin gain a positive impact especially regarding the price.

One of the important things is indeed technical analysis. After all, everything will be based on past chart history and we can make predictions with technical analysis. Although in some market conditions technical analysis does not work, but in many conditions technical analysis will always be needed.
An important requirement is to know how to make predictions with technicals, so you will know how the next market movement.
This has become a basic trading that must be known.

and Fundamentals are complementary or will always be the same as technicals.
When Bitcoin's potential will be reached in the next Halving cycle, this will give Bitcoin good potential.
Fundamentals include a lot of news about Bitcoin good or bad so this will affect the state of the market.

Fundamental and technical analysis will tell how the market is really doing. and the impact of Halving that will occur this time will certainly be very influential for the crypto market, we only need to wait another 1 year to be able to see Bitcoin's increase during Halving and hopefully it will be an increase that brings Bitcoin to a new ATH.

_BlackStar

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Quote from: Ayers on May 20, 2023, 08:10:15 AM

I don't fully believe in technical analysis, but based on what has happened historically, I also believe bitcoin could hit $40k or more before continuing to correct again.

But actually technical analysis will also really support your investment plan – historically you also need to look at the charts, meaning you still need to pay attention to the technicals as well.

The fundamentals and technicalities are needed so that investors can have a belief about the potential price that bitcoin can achieve in two different cycles. Less than 1 year from now, the halving will happen - it will definitely make bitcoin gain a positive impact especially regarding the price.

Ayers

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Quote from: Kemarit on May 19, 2023, 12:36:25 PM

Yes, it's really different to predict the price of BTC, although there is TA that can help us.

If technical analysis can help us predict the price of bitcoin, then why do we constantly fail to predict the movements of bitcoin? Even the bitcoin bull run earlier this year was almost unpredictable, I daresay no one could have predicted it.

Quote from: Kemarit on May 19, 2023, 12:36:25 PM

As far as the policies of government towards it, maybe it will have an impact but not in the long run. BTC can and will survived despite government's hard line stance not just BTC but the whole crypto market itself.

As for the government's impact, I think depending on their policy, if it's too harsh, it will have a negative impact on the market. Do not underestimate the government because we still live under their control.

Quote from: Kemarit on May 19, 2023, 12:36:25 PM

I do like your conservative prediction of $40,000, at least that's also what my take regarding the price.

The good thing is that we are still like more than 6 months away, so many things can happen and hopefully we can overcome all the negativity and then go to $40,000 or even higher at the end of the year.

I don't fully believe in technical analysis, but based on what has happened historically, I also believe bitcoin could hit $40k or more before continuing to correct again.

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Quote from: Godlovesyou on May 16, 2023, 10:02:02 AM

Nobody bitcoin price prediction has work this season, I told my friends early January that this year will still be difficult for bitcoin to rise since they're still blocks on digestive and ingestive policies of government, why bitcoin should not stay by government. But they argued me to a fault but I knew bitcoin will not gets to $40k this year. The price will definitely rise but not at the moment. Do you predict the price to any level year?

Bitcoin has risen this year more than expected. When the year started I thought Bitcoin will keep on falling as it did last years. I saw predictions of Bitcoin falling to $11,000 which I didn't believe but I knew it was possible if the market doesn't get an good new soon.

Judging from how low bitcoin has fallen in the year to the high of $30,000 and above, we can't say the year has been bad. So many things has happened yet Bitcoin hasn't crashed and the high cost of transaction hasn't made people lose interest in using Bitcoin.

$40,000 isn't a target Bitcoin can't achieve, it can increase more than that but first we have to retest $30,000 before the price can go higher, we still have along time before the years ends so for now lets keep watching the market.

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If I were you, I would not think about the words of those who reject my predictions because we in crypto can give predictions and it's up to them to accept or reject it.
Just let them reject it because maybe they have their own predictions and it's normal for people to act like that.
I don't analyze bitcoin price movements very often and when I see that the price can't increase for a while, I will leave the market for a while and wait for the market to become active again.
To predict prices every year will not be easy because we don't know how the bitcoin price moves every month because it hasn't happened yet and if you rely on the history of price movements, I don't think it can be used as a basis for predictions because it still requires other things.

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Quote from: goaldigger on May 17, 2023, 05:23:15 PM

Quote from: Godlovesyou on May 16, 2023, 10:02:02 AM

Nobody bitcoin price prediction has work this season, I told my friends early January that this year will still be difficult for bitcoin to rise since they're still blocks on digestive and ingestive policies of government, why bitcoin should not stay by government. But they argued me to a fault but I knew bitcoin will not gets to $40k this year. The price will definitely rise but not at the moment. Do you predict the price to any level year?

You’re talking about the price in January and since then the price pump and if your friend didn’t listen to you, I’m sure he makes a lot of money already. The market is unpredictable, same as Bitcoin you can’t expect an accurate prediction from anyone. I’m still bullish anyway with Bitcoin, this current correction are only temporary, I expect in the last quarter of 2023, the price of Bitcoin will pump again, doing DCA right now is a good strategy.

We are still pretty far away from the third quarter of this year and anything could happen by then. Seeing the current price range, it seems like it is more in favor of getting into a downtrend movement pretty soon since it is showing no signs of going up at this point. If it manages to hit $30k again, it might soar up from there but if it goes around $25k, we will see it going down further.

Overall, if by the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin reaches $40k, that isn't too bad since it would be about a 26-27% growth from this point which is not really bad in my opinion, but as everyone said, these are all predictions and no one knows what will happen.

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Almost zero price action today appeared to happen, this is impressively unimpressive in seemingly nothing occuring Cheesy

I have to say BTC seems to be cast adrift as if its lost its sails for weeks on end sometimes and Im not sure why. Do the powers behind bid and offer somehow counter balance each other near perfectly.
I think its most perfectly outlined by a lack of volume perhaps or a large drop comparatively from now to Mid March is when I last see larger amounts of volume. If we have more action then presumably more imbalance occurs and so more price action and movement across resistance levels more probable.

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Quote from: Godlovesyou on May 16, 2023, 10:02:02 AM

Nobody bitcoin price prediction has work this season, I told my friends early January that this year will still be difficult for bitcoin to rise since they're still blocks on digestive and ingestive policies of government, why bitcoin should not stay by government. But they argued me to a fault but I knew bitcoin will not gets to $40k this year. The price will definitely rise but not at the moment. Do you predict the price to any level year?

Talking about predictions, indeed we also know that the probability is fifty fifty because things like this are only speculative with the views and research that has been done.
It doesn't matter to speculate about increases or decreases, if the results don't go according to our wishes and opinions, we really need to look further, I think, because it's something like that that everyone has experienced.
As long as you really believe in that and as long as you continue to learn from the mistakes made then that is a good thing because we have our own process as well as in bitcoin because of course nothing is instant if you really want good results.

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Quote from: Godlovesyou on May 16, 2023, 10:02:02 AM

Nobody bitcoin price prediction has work this season, I told my friends early January that this year will still be difficult for bitcoin to rise since they're still blocks on digestive and ingestive policies of government, why bitcoin should not stay by government. But they argued me to a fault but I knew bitcoin will not gets to $40k this year. The price will definitely rise but not at the moment. Do you predict the price to any level year?

Be sure, the number of correct predictions that have come true is quite high. But there are too many guesses and no one should be guided by forecasters. Everyone should have their own plan. It's not wise to invest in other people's predictions. I never make guesses. We'll see what happens this year.

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Quote from: Godlovesyou on May 16, 2023, 10:02:02 AM

But they argued me to a fault but I knew bitcoin will not gets to $40k this year. The price will definitely rise but not at the moment. Do you predict the price to any level year?

I don't understand why people think price can't rise at the moment. I think a further pull-back to support around $25K is increasingly likely with $27K struggling to hold as support after 2 months, but I wouldn't rule out price continuing to rise right now. If price turns the 200 Week MA into new support (around $26.1K) - that is currently happening I should add - it remains more than possible re-testing $30K and moving higher.

Although there is definitively some bearish signs on the chart, this doesn't mean price can't move higher right now, it just means it's less likely as these bearish signals would first need to be invalidated, which a move back to $30K would certainly achieve. Ultimately price remains in a range between $27K and $31K, despite the bearish structure, so until either support or resistance breaks it could still go either way.

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That's just how this technology or industry works. The market prices are full of uncertainties. Indeed there's technical analysis, DCA, and price actions but the market value of cryptos simply move dependent with the demand which is a variable being affected by many factors. This is also the reason why speculation of market prices will never be 100% accurate; there will be lapses 'coz there's no such thing as absolute prediction in this industry. The reason why pprices re falling at this point? We may cll it part of price correction but we may also see it as nature of price volatility. Thing here is that, we won't be able to be certain of how will the market price move on the next day or cycle.

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Quote from: Godlovesyou on May 16, 2023, 10:02:02 AM

Nobody bitcoin price prediction has work this season, I told my friends early January that this year will still be difficult for bitcoin to rise since they're still blocks on digestive and ingestive policies of government, why bitcoin should not stay by government. But they argued me to a fault but I knew bitcoin will not gets to $40k this year. The price will definitely rise but not at the moment. Do you predict the price to any level year?

Yes, it's really different to predict the price of BTC, although there is TA that can help us. As far as the policies of government towards it, maybe it will have an impact but not in the long run. BTC can and will survived despite government's hard line stance not just BTC but the whole crypto market itself.

I do like your conservative prediction of $40,000, at least that's also what my take regarding the price.

The good thing is that we are still like more than 6 months away, so many things can happen and hopefully we can overcome all the negativity and then go to $40,000 or even higher at the end of the year.

Topic: Wrong Predictions as price keep failing! - page 4. (Read 843 times)