Topic: wrote a paper about the convergence of bitcoin toward the stock-to-flow model (Read 243 times)

Hopefully a lot of people would get to notice your paper, because if your assertion is correct, then a lot of them might blame us for not raising more awareness to the community about your research!

Now lets see what we would expect this incoming BTC halving... hopefully it will be for the best interest of the community!

Hey, glad to read that you appreciated it! I too think this is super exciting, which is why I wrote the paper. And I'm really looking forward to this upcoming halving, because this model is supposed to predict the price on the day of the halving with quite a high degree of precision. Time will tell if I'm right.

I took your suggestion and replied to that thread with a link to my paper. Hopefully more people will read and provide their feedback.

Now this is getting interesting! Although I'm not really into the technicalities, I understand that you've further improved upon the work of Plan B, and I appreciate that! I think its a kind of affirmation of the previous study which is critical to us since no one might dare to verify the validity of such work!

My only prayer is that Bitcoin's price would behave as predicted based on your mathematical models in that study and that would be very great for us all!

Also, maybe you could expound more on your ideas on a similar thread - Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

 - Well, yea, the conclusion discusses Bitcoin. But it doesn't dig in to the real substance of the paper because really it takes a lot of words to explain what I've discovered. I'm not going to repeat it all in the conclusion and I don't want to make the paper too long. If you're going to read any part of my paper just go to sections 3 and 4. Sections 1 and 2 are just intro stuff that you probably already know.

If I have enough time, soon I'll read it but I tend to read conclusions to most research papers because I feel it is the most important part of a study where you summarizes the overall idea of that paper specially if your target audience are non-technical people.

Now, if you've clearly stated that your conclusion "barely mentions anything discussed in the body of the paper" then dont' get me wrong but I think you may want to redo your paper again because if your conclusion is not about the whole idea or content beyond your paper then what is it about?

Btw, I hope you would share to us your opinion on the idea of including the "altcoin" factor in your analysis.

 - Also, you might have the ratio flipped in your head. The ratio is stock:flow. It's a moot point, though because Satoshi's selling does not increase the stock or the flow.

Again, your focus is on supply demand, which is the cart before the horse. The underlying is human choice driven by reality. stock to flow is the reality.

 - It's more readily available than it was when it was merely a potential coin


- supply demand is based on monetary hardness. You are putting the cart before the horse. The demand is there because of the hardness, not the other way around.


-so what? Stock is the cumulative number of bitcoins mined. flow is the rate at which new coins are mined. stop complicating things.


 - you are severely over complicating things and putting the cart before the horse. Human action comes first, and the minutia of the exchanges comes second. Humans have always preferred a harder form of money because that hardness provides security, and humans want security. Stop looking at the trees for just a few minutes, and consider the whole forest.

just reading the first bit.. a few holes in the methodology

1. the 'readily available quantity of a thing to the annual rate of the production of that thing'

firstly. most mining(production) dont immediately end up in 'readily available'

lets make it real simple
circulation is 18m~
readily available is 1.5m(varies alot as this is the coins in exchanges)
production is ~655k a year

so based on s/f out of 2.155mill coins of readily available and production its at this moment
~70% exchange available 30% production
im gonna be lazy and round it off 2:1(1.5m:0.65m)

2. market price is and has never been based on the supply of all coins in circulation. but just on the supply demand in an exchange. so its not about a 18m:0.65m ratio

3. the 0.65m mined this year wont end up all adding to the 1.5m exchange hoard.. instead it is part of the 18m circulation with an unknown amount EITHER being hoarded privately OR put into an exchange.

the issue is thinking that S:F is a safe ratio long term is wrong. this is because
while you falsely believe that the 1.5m:0.65m means at any year it can only become 2.1m:0.65m and following year 2.75m:0.65
it cant
did you know tomorrow satoshiN could dump 1million coins in one go, just him alone.. far far more than production. and thus.. cause a bigger price dump than imaginable bringing next year to 3.15m:0.65m and thats before even thinking about the other 15million hoarded by people not playing on exchanges
imagine if everyone sold tomorrow
1.5m:0.655 turns into 18m:0.655 overnight

.. i try reading the rest and continue if i see other flaws in your thinking
emphasis though. the price is not based on the 18m circ.. but on the 1.5m exchange supply available easily to b bought or sold at a price

 - Only the conclusion?! The conclusion barely mentions anything discussed in the body of the paper! You gotta actually read it, it's got some important stuff in there.

Did read only the conclusion part of your paper since there are many technical terms that I can't quite comprehend or needs more clarification especially that I have limited time right now. But in fairness, I find your paper very interesting and excellent and in fact I've saved a copy of it for future reference.

If I'm not mistaken, I've encountered some kind of BTC stock to flow analysis before and find all those analysis including yours seems to agree that Bitcoin's price are bound to be catapulted to greater heights considering its growing mass adoption and its limited supply - which I couldn't disagree!

I suppose this study/analysis will be more accurate had the only cryptocurrency available to us was only Bitcoin but in fact there are some notable altcoins out there that I think could influence the out come of this analysis!

Now, I think the community would be most grateful if you could or maybe somebody provide us an in-depth analysis using the stock-to-flow model of Bitcoin including other notable altcoins and I think we could see a more accurate picture of the result of it. Imho.

Did anybody get a chance to read this paper? It's also being discussed over on reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/drofp4/on_the_apparent_convergence_of_bitcoins_usd/

- I look forward to reading your feedback!

Working link:

https://pdfhost.io/v/ym3kQ9QDy_On_the_Convergence_of_Bitcoinpdf.pdf

On the Apparent Convergence of Bitcoin’s USD Market Value Toward the Stock-To-Flow Valuation Model and the Necessary Divergence Into the Narrow Halving Window

https://www.scribd.com/document/433386630/On-the-Apparent-Convergence-of-Bitcoin-s-USD-Market-Value-Toward-the-Stock-To-Flow-Valuation-Model-and-the-Necessary-Divergence-Into-the-Narrow-Halvin