I explain it with a box with to 2 doors at opposite side and 2 differents keys.
If you put something in the box with the first key, only the second key can get it, and vice-versa.
Everbody can have several boxes.
Now, imagine it's not keys, but pin code or passwords, and 1 of the 2 is known to everbody.
- Everbody can insert things in the box, and only you can retreive them with the second code.
- You can put things in the box, and everbody has your public code to get it and they know it comes from you, brcause they use your public code.
Topic: WTH? why a sudden drop by 10 cents? - page 2. (Read 13697 times)
What about being non-physical?
It could be, like any other currency. Maybe by local initiatives first, and less probable, but still possible, by some countries.But, who cares ?
Difficult to understand how it works for non-geeks?
- How does it cost ?- What is your account/bitcoin address ?
=> send
All the other things aren't needed. You know it is secure because the official website says it is and geeks and first users and press say it too, but you are not forced to read the whole wiki pages nor the source code.
Prone to attack by any large entity?
Like anything on internet (like paypal and mastercard recently ?).Non-official (possibility of being delegalized)?
Yes, there is dumb government everywhere...That payments aren't and never will be instant (so for instant payments you will need a Paypal-like entity with fees and bullshit)?
If you really need instant payment, on internet, current solution is to use a bank/centralised account for both sender and receiver (just change balance of both users and a real bitcoin transaction is not needed, but still possible to still rely on the secured transaction system of bitcoin) All that is needed is to assure that a given transaction has reached the clear majority of mining power without a double-spend: this is easy to build a protocol for once you have a majority of hash power owned by organised, interested parties.
Plus, banking institutions can guarantee these kinds of things within themselves or through an inter-bank protocol, similar to how you currently can make instant payments via MyBitcoin. Maybe not preferable but obvious. This can also fix the "non-physical" and "non-anonymous" problems; if you have a trusted authority, printed currency (though I'd expect credit cards) and untraceable transactions can be made possible.
Difficulty to understand IMO is not an issue, in fact it seems to me that Bitcoin will be pretty easy to use when it won't be required of the user to understand the internals.
Attacks on the other hand, is what I'm pessimistic about. Not technical attacks to bring down the network (I think they can be circumvented easily as long as there is Internet as we know it), but legal ones.
EDIT: "Legal attacks" came out wrong. What I meant was that Bitcoin is not likely to be adopted by current institutions because it's not suitable to be part of the scheme. This may or may not result in legal attacks or state coercion though. It's a very exciting aspect and I just want to be part of the network when it comes to that.
"Utimately superior"? What about being non-physical? Difficult to understand how it works for non-geeks? Prone to attack by any large entity? Non-official (possibility of being delegalized)? That payments aren't and never will be instant (so for instant payments you will need a Paypal-like entity with fees and bullshit)?
I won't weigh in on the "Ultimately Superior" question, though I think bitcoin has impressive technical merits. However, regarding the instant thing I think that once mining goes massively commercial it's very likely there will be instant payments. All that is needed is to assure that a given transaction has reached the clear majority of mining power without a double-spend: this is easy to build a protocol for once you have a majority of hash power owned by organised, interested parties.
Bitcoin is ultimately superior to all existing currencies, so it's completely natural that it will replace them sooner or later. Or perhaps other currencies will be backed in Bitcoin. Of course, there will be clones, but the original one will always rule.
"Utimately superior"? What about being non-physical? Difficult to understand how it works for non-geeks? Prone to attack by any large entity? Non-official (possibility of being delegalized)? That payments aren't and never will be instant (so for instant payments you will need a Paypal-like entity with fees and bullshit)?
Don't get me wrong. I wish Bitcoin success and I think it is a very good project but there is so much bubble mentality going on here that I'm much less optimistic about its future that when I first learned about Bitcoin.
I'm pretty sure that shareholders of pets.com in the 1990s had similar attitudes to yours that there is no other future than a bright one.
Depends on the weakness.
- If this is a critical design-related weakness, it may even destroy the currency (but i don't think something like this exists, BTC has been on for 2 years and everything looks perfect)
- If this is a serious weakness, it may reverse the expansion for some time.
- Smaller weaknesses will only slow down the expansion.
That's not what I asked. My point is, it's perfectly possible for Bitcoin never to gain sufficient critical mass to remain viable and for the economy to slowly grind to a halt, without any technical flaws at all.
OK, i re-read your post and i understood what you were asking about.
Yes, i think that technical weakness is the only thing that can stop/slow down Bitcoin in the long term.
Bitcoin is ultimately superior to all existing currencies, so it's completely natural that it will replace them sooner or later. Or perhaps other currencies will be backed in Bitcoin. Of course, there will be clones, but the original one will always rule.
That's not what I asked. My point is, it's perfectly possible for Bitcoin never to gain sufficient critical mass to remain viable and for the economy to slowly grind to a halt, without any technical flaws at all.
As long as merchants keep accepting it, it should be fine. One thing is that Europe and/or Asia need to catch up on the market. The market is highly US centric, people from Europe/Asia are limited with trade in that respect (due to distance/trust and US only shipments).
That's not what I asked. My point is, it's perfectly possible for Bitcoin never to gain sufficient critical mass to remain viable and for the economy to slowly grind to a halt, without any technical flaws at all.
If bitcoin is such a pivotal technology, than some kind of crypto-economy will arise.
Depends on the weakness.
- If this is a critical design-related weakness, it may even destroy the currency (but i don't think something like this exists, BTC has been on for 2 years and everything looks perfect)
- If this is a serious weakness, it may reverse the expansion for some time.
- Smaller weaknesses will only slow down the expansion.
That's not what I asked. My point is, it's perfectly possible for Bitcoin never to gain sufficient critical mass to remain viable and for the economy to slowly grind to a halt, without any technical flaws at all.
It cannot decrease value in the long term, unless size of its userbase and/or its economy starts to fall.
So unless some serious weakness is discovered (like technical weakness), Bitcoin is doomed to rise forever.
So unless some serious weakness is discovered (like technical weakness), Bitcoin is doomed to rise forever.
Do you seriously think the only way Bitcoin usage can decrease is if there's a technical weakness found?
Depends on the weakness.
- If this is a critical design-related weakness, it may even destroy the currency (but i don't think something like this exists, BTC has been on for 2 years and everything looks perfect)
- If this is a serious weakness, it may reverse the expansion for some time.
- Smaller weaknesses will only slow down the expansion.
It cannot decrease value in the long term, unless size of its userbase and/or its economy starts to fall.
So unless some serious weakness is discovered (like technical weakness), Bitcoin is doomed to rise forever.
So unless some serious weakness is discovered (like technical weakness), Bitcoin is doomed to rise forever.
Do you seriously think the only way Bitcoin usage can decrease is if there's a technical weakness found?
So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.
Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.
As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are printed, that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?
It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.
And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.
Alot of people are hoarding their bitcoins, waiting for a huge increase (ie: to 2 $) to sell everything and forget about mining if it isn't profitable anymore or will continue mining if it is. but that big sell off after the rally might mean a major decline
Great, I'll wait till then before I buy more.
I meant later on, when the difficulty will be very high and that the BTC will be around 2$ and is still profitable, people might mass sell and it'll fall back to 0.8$ or 1$ and Bitmining won't be profitable anymore and then everyone will mass sell and quit... and bitcoin will die
This is a worst case scenario btw, not exactly what I think will happen :p
What you are saying is a relative and temporary situation.
Bitcoin has a market, which means that it will self-balance itself regularly. The more people use it, the more balanced it will be. The more people use it, the more value bitcoins have.
It's a currency which is deflationary by design. It cannot decrease value in the long term, unless size of its userbase and/or its economy starts to fall.
So unless some serious weakness is discovered (like technical weakness), Bitcoin is doomed to rise forever.
So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.
Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.
As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are printed, that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?
It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.
And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.
Alot of people are hoarding their bitcoins, waiting for a huge increase (ie: to 2 $) to sell everything and forget about mining if it isn't profitable anymore or will continue mining if it is. but that big sell off after the rally might mean a major decline
Great, I'll wait till then before I buy more.
I meant later on, when the difficulty will be very high and that the BTC will be around 2$ and is still profitable, people might mass sell and it'll fall back to 0.8$ or 1$ and Bitmining won't be profitable anymore and then everyone will mass sell and quit... and bitcoin will die
This is a worst case scenario btw, not exactly what I think will happen :p
So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.
Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.
As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are printed, that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?
It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.
And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.
Alot of people are hoarding their bitcoins, waiting for a huge increase (ie: to 2 $) to sell everything and forget about mining if it isn't profitable anymore or will continue mining if it is. but that big sell off after the rally might mean a major decline
Great, I'll wait till then before I buy more.
So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.
Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.
As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are printed, that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?
It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.
And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.
Alot of people are hoarding their bitcoins, waiting for a huge increase (ie: to 2 $) to sell everything and forget about mining if it isn't profitable anymore or will continue mining if it is. but that big sell off after the rally might mean a major decline
So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.
Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.
As long as Bitcoin popularity will grow faster than new Bitcoins are (EDIT: mined), that is highly doubtable.
Do you really believe that Bitcoin market's value will stay for long at 5-6 Milion USD ?
It only takes one medium-sized investor (or thousand of small investors such as geeks) to double the current value. So i think that within max 1-2 months we are going to have a rally.
And within 6-9 months... anything can happen. IMHO even 10 - fold increase is possible.
So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.
Are you kidding? There is no long term data to speak of. It's perfectly possible for the price to stay at the current level well past a couple of months, or to drop below your artificial rally trendline.
S3052 said there will be a breakout soon and we're in a rally mode. 
It's no rocket science this time, just look at the chart:
The latest date that the outbreak can happen at is T_max.
But i would rather say that it will happen much much sooner, like in max 1/3 of the length from last recorded value to T_max (which makes it a month, maximum 2).
It's gaining speed after all, not rising with constant speed.
So far, bitcoin value is very predictable in the long term.
Yeah I hate it when today's "news" outlets release articles about various prices rising or falling and then they pin on something banal like I don't know unrests in Libya being responsible for rising price of silver... 
Haha. Well said. Of course, these are the same people who say the Hunt brothers were the sole reason the price of silver rose back in the 70s.
I have a feeling that the change of ownership of Mt. Gox might have caused this slight dip in the prices.
I think X cause Y change in bitcoin price.
Yeah I hate it when today's "news" outlets release articles about various prices rising or falling and then they pin on something banal like I don't know unrests in Libya being responsible for rising price of silver...
It's always just supply vs demand with a tiny bit of the speculative element.
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