Pretty sure I'm going to lose. I should have incorporated this difficulty adjustment into my model, and didn't. (Not that hard to calculate when you're less than 100 blocks from adjustment.)
I guess the guy who bet 19,000,000 will win round 121 cause the difficulty now is already more than 15M.
Yes, you are right that it is easy to calculate the next round's difficulty less than 100 blocks away. So we only allow betting on the next next round, i.e. the nearest block distance you can get is 2016 blocks away. However, we have a small bias on early bet in order to compensate early player's information loss.
Round reset is based on adjustment block, right? Ie if your transaction is before the adjustment, it's in this round, but if you miss and it's after the adjustment, it's in the next round?
Yes, you are right! We categorize all the bets based on the blocks they are in.
