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STT

legendary

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Good to have a plan but why would making a new high be a time to go short or take a negative bias especially, reasonable to guess but I dont see that signal as a reason its going to go down. I was just looking back to Feb for how it left a bullish trend then and what did daily bars look like before it processed from positive to neutral then negative. Far quicker a process then we've had recently but perhaps its a good reference for brevity

So within up trend, a decline and leaving trend, green bar up to recheck prior trend then quite a sharp reversal down that encompasses the entire green bar up. Back to the prior decline line, now some kind of support. Now the important point is the series of lower highs, each attempt has less energy and we finally lose altitude as the breadth of the market recognises a downturn.

Obviously we had the virus news so its more defined then now where nobody knows, however its similar pricing and fair reference.

pooya87

legendary

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what you drew on that chart can not be considered a "sharp" increase, it is barely a regular increase even though it is above a major resistance. an actual sharp increase should be much bigger than that to at least $11k and if that happens there is no coming back from it since it will start a chain of events that brings back a lot of the investors that are currently waiting to jump in which would then make the rise even bigger.
additionally even if price went to a little above $10k the drop has no reason to be to $7k!!! such movement makes no sense at all. at this point $7k can only happen either if someone dumps a very massive amount of bitcoin or some major negative event starts.

Yamifoud

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Definitely we can still jump over $10k barrier as we had surpasses it already but just to figure out that it won't be that easy this time knowing that the economic situation of the people is still not in good shape. We are still facing the pandemic sentiment which also is a barrier for crypto to grow as investors are also worried about. May we see a huge market uplift someday but just like a normal scenario, it will fall down back again and have a repeated scenario all the time. Until this time, we can assured for a bullish season or might take into a hard bearish movement.

exstasie

legendary

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Quote from: hugeblack on June 13, 2020, 01:20:22 PM

I remain optimistic about the direction of prices, and as long as the price remains high above the $ 9,600 barrier, a rise to above 10,700 is likely.

The price action itself on higher time frames is neutral, not bullish or bearish in particular.

What worries me is the simultaneous and sizeable drop in both stock markets and BTC on Thursday. That has me sliding back towards my March/April outlook, that the mid-term outcome for BTC is tied to stocks and the global economic recovery.

Sentiment in both markets has been moderately bullish, so we shouldn't be surprised by a significant bearish shakeout. Thursday's drop in the S&P 500 was the worst seen in months, indicating that investors may be getting weary about the recovery and the uptick in COVID-19 cases. This could be a bad omen for BTC too.

buwaytress

legendary

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Quote from: exstasie on June 12, 2020, 04:25:43 PM

We already had one upside head fake to $10.4K. You think we get another one to $10.8K?

Seems unlikely to me. $10.5K is monthly and yearly resistance. Between all the time spent distributing below it and all the stops that will be run when the market goes above it, there's no way the market stops $300 higher. At that point I'd be targeting the upper $11,000s or $12,000s at least and I wouldn't be gambling with shorts at all. That's like shorting in mid-late 2016, quite dangerous.

Actually right after the fake 10.4 I thought we were really going to see another fake one too just before the weekend (before your thread), but as it turned out 11 dollars shy of 10,000 on Thursday.

Got to agree with exstasie here, that right now, it's highly unlikely we get another fake one with a higher limit. If it breaks and stays above 10500 for even half a day, we'll be seriously unlucky not to see 11k. Shorting at this point, be prepared for tight stops, OR to wait another couple years for the next major retracement post ATH -- in which case you'll miss out heavily!

hugeblack

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I remain optimistic about the direction of prices, and as long as the price remains high above the $ 9,600 barrier, a rise to above 10,700 is likely.
Support at $ 9200 was helpful in stopping losses to the $ 8,000 range and backing to $ 7,400, we have a Direct Downtrend that (50-day SMA) support. trendline support remains intact.

Bollinger Band 1-hour middle, the Fibonacci 21.6% one-month, SMA 100 4-hour, and the Fibo 50.8% one-week.

The key to falling is a rally down $ 91,100.

Rulelies

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I just hope it happens. There a lot of speculations that the market will be bearish again. Even from my charts i can see it. But it should happen fast so i can invest and get good profits.

bitbunnny

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Quote from: bitgolden on June 12, 2020, 02:26:46 PM

I can see the long and the increase but I do not see the decrease after that. I have been around in crypto for a long time now and I know that almost every single long and increase eventually leads to decrease so I think you could be potentially right. But that doesn't change the fact that I do not see it this time around. Maybe it could fall, maybe you are right.

I just feel like the increase could be a bit quicker and a bit sudden to just suddenly start dropping right after. Instead of slowly going up, I can see it going to $12k levels very quickly in a week or so, and after that crash in a day to something like just under $9k. That is at least what I can read from the current charts and how the crypto world is going, but of course I could be very wrong as well.

Recently we've already seen quite sudden rise and sudden fall after that. It wouldn't be a surprise.
Even if the price goes up I don't think it will go all the way to 12000$. Resistance at 10000$ is very high.and even if the price breaks it the question is if it will nanage to stay there and rise further. I don't think so, it doesn't seem very likely to me. Probably another fall.would happen.soon after the rise, if it even happens.
To my opinion price will continue to fluctuate in.current range and there will be no significant changes until the end of the yea, at least not those who would last longer.

exstasie

legendary

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We already had one upside head fake to $10.4K. You think we get another one to $10.8K?

Seems unlikely to me. $10.5K is monthly and yearly resistance. Between all the time spent distributing below it and all the stops that will be run when the market goes above it, there's no way the market stops $300 higher. At that point I'd be targeting the upper $11,000s or $12,000s at least and I wouldn't be gambling with shorts at all. That's like shorting in mid-late 2016, quite dangerous.

tabas

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If bitcoin pops to $10700 as swaystars prediction, I'll just follow his move and will get some profits at that level. And if it plummets to $9000, I'll push and use those profits.
It's going to be another roller coaster for sure.

bitgolden

legendary

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I can see the long and the increase but I do not see the decrease after that. I have been around in crypto for a long time now and I know that almost every single long and increase eventually leads to decrease so I think you could be potentially right. But that doesn't change the fact that I do not see it this time around. Maybe it could fall, maybe you are right.

I just feel like the increase could be a bit quicker and a bit sudden to just suddenly start dropping right after. Instead of slowly going up, I can see it going to $12k levels very quickly in a week or so, and after that crash in a day to something like just under $9k. That is at least what I can read from the current charts and how the crypto world is going, but of course I could be very wrong as well.

STT

legendary

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Long is likely correct at present but move the stop or have a trailing stop loss. BTC constantly spins in circles, its no where near to confirmed negative. We did not touch what I'd see as the first objective down, I dont see that means its strong just its going to do that in future. Repeat repeat till you believe it'll repeat again then it doesnt :p

Challenged trend but not to prior lows or the blue line roughly on this graph

SwayStar123

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