Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1018. (Read 3314350 times)

DNM Acceptance was news.  If some new early and bought upon the news, or even the 'rumour' then so what?  It was still huge for Monero and genuine good news.  Yes it spiked up as a small market and FOMO kicked in, just as it did for Bitcoin along the way from 10,000 a pizza.

That is how it is.  Manipulated, quite probably - but only in the direction of existing market sentiment.  Was it manipulated in the other direction after the ATH?  Almost certainly and far more cynically.  It was held by too many people who were not buying more and a whole bunch of new holders who would easily be pushed into dumping.  Large shorters saw it as a sitting duck.

But the push down went too far, possibly just as the pump up arguably went - markets often overshoot.  

Will it go down to 0.005?  As long as BTC does not spike and there is no black swan news...  I very much doubt it.  

Support at 0.01 was very strong, XMR did not capitulate then - why would it now?  It will not suddenly go back up to above 0.02 either, but 0.005 - I just can't see it.  

Touching under 0.01 is possible again - but for me it's a probability of under 20% (Disclosure: I still have bids waiting, just in case).

Buy and hold and be prepared for a wobbly ride... up.

EDIT: I didn't mean to presume and answer for Smoothie, I am sure he is more than capable of doing it himself - but I had to chip in my 2c on what is an open discussion.

@smoothie. Well if government regulated markets can be manipulated then I conclude it would be far easier to manipulate a market that is moving freely without the interference of regulators. It would be naive of us not to think so right?

Now the question will be if Monero goes back down to 500k satoshis or not. What do you think.

From what I gather it is just the market doing what it is going to do when news hits on anything relevant to XMR usage.

You may call it manipulation, others may call it a free market moving "freely" without the interference of governments and financial regulators.

Actually i did ok daytrading xmr but i considered the fees to high to continue with it(you need 120,000 btc volume on poloniex in order to pay low fees). I did however save a lot of money by not keeping the xmr i bought at 0.015, it feels good to be in the green zoon instead of the red zoon.

Did that really work, the price doesn't move that far in a day and with fees you could even end up losing a few it seems.

Depends, if the coin is sound and adoption actually increased then the price should remain above what it was before.

A pump can actually raise awareness and spur development in it's ecosystem. If 2 times the people now own Monero, there is more chance of market places, etc... being built around it.

I've seen two types of pumps and I have been here for ages.

(Y is generally around 10 to 40)

Pump A: price starts out at X and increases to Y times X. The crash comes (it always does) and the final prices rests around 2-5X.

Pump B: price starts out at X and increases to Y times X. The crash comes (it always does) and the final prices rests around 0-1X.

Bitcoin is A and in fact I've seen it with Bitcoin multiple times.

Scamcoins that have no actual merit are B.

The reason is that people bought B knowing it was a scamcoin and that there will be an inevitable pump, as large holders will always try to manipulate. Once the pump happens and people start their exists many people ask themselves, where is this company/coin heading? Does it have actual technical promise? Is there a genuine active dev team?

With scamcoins once they are out that is it, no developers and no real adoption. Coin is dead and anyone left holding is out of pocket (remember kids, only invest what you can afford to lose).

Now coins with fundamentals and active development around sound technology can be manipulated, sure, but once they increase more people see that the coin actually has a place in this new world. More people hold on after the crash and this is the important distinction, that their are more people holding afterwards than before.

So even though it was a pump, the pump actually helps to increase adoption and the coin can then hold value.

I am not saying Monero is A or B. I am just presenting my view on the situation and where the price could lead.

If Monero did go back to the prices before the pump it shows that perhaps adoption has not increased at all, which will be a shame.

The question then is where will anon take place in the future? Zcash? Mimblewimble? Bitcoin with Mimblewimble sidechains? Mixing contracts on ETH?

Who know, maybe a good idea to diversify.

I really do believe in Monero only because of the development team and their dedication to the project.

I respect them and believe that Monero already does full anon. I believe that with the coming GUI wallets things will look better.

I am happy if the Monero market cap stays around $80-100mm for now, it's a good position to be in and hopefully will spur legitimate uses.

This is why i will not buy more now after the increase, i will instead look after other coins to invest in with my few money i have left to invest. As for short term trading i did get a lot more xmr for my money by selling at 0.0135 and rebuying below 0.0115) but now i will simply hold.

In general you are correct about daytrading, especially when you factor in trading fees.

So maybe I just need to wait for that price before I buy it, I hope it will resurrect again.

The price is not really good for now despite of the increase, but for a certain trader who loves to take the risk, I think there is a value somehow.

Everything is manipulated, especially in Crypto.

Once you accept that manipulation is happening then you learn not to buy at the top of a green candle.

This space requires immense discipline.

You have to be able to see an asset increasing before your eyes and if you're not already in, stay out until the inevitable crash (or just stay out forever if the coin isn't sound.)

Here is the deal, you will always miss out on profits with that technique. But you'll also maintain your wealth too.

Time in the market is much more profitable that timing the market as long as the asset you're investing into is fundamentally sound.

Time in the market = buy and hold.

Timing the market = day trading.

If you have reason to believe in Monero then put X% of your investment portfolio into it.

Don't try day trading.

Imagine all of the people that bought into Bitcoin at it's first peak at $32 and then it crashed to below $5.

If they had held today they would have a 20X increase, but that would require time in the market, not timing the market.

I would advise against putting 100% of your portfolio into anything, even Bitcoin or property.

Consider that the best way to make money is to avoid scam coins and hold a personal fund that is an amalgamation of various coins that show promise.

As an example, my portfolio currently consists of BTC, ETH, XMR, AMP.

@smoothie. It is very clear that XMR was pumped by some people who knew about the darknet market acceptance. Do you not think that is a form of manipulation?

How exactly did they manipulate the market?

By an announcement and perhaps some bids on the price?

I am pretty sure this "manipulation" you speak of is just another way of attempting to rationalize an irrational market.

Probably

Am I wrong in thinking that XMR will go down back to .005? That is where all the craziness started so maybe it will also end there. The rise above that level was clear manipulation from the people involved in the darknet market.

The word usage meant to entail that they did not clarify how much of the generalized prescription drug industry were allowed this 90-day supply.

Perhaps the wording should have been "not sure which drugs are considered as 'some'".

Operation Chokepoint has been on my radar for some time. That applies here for sure.

And yes, monero wasn't created to solve every problem and indeed it is providing a solution to a specific subset of problems.

What is baffling is that this 90-day supply allowance for some prescription drugs is the equivalent of saying:

"Hey you can get the product you need to survive at a lower cost, but only in 90-day supply amounts, no more."

Gee thanks Gubmint. Indeed governments are not for the people, but for the power/money/control.

Yes you are 100% correct, but i have decided to always stick to my rules and my rule for xmr is not to buy above 0.011 (i own 470 xmr already). I would of course never sell at this level, the price is more likely to go up than down now.

It is not investing if you trade every little swing and only care of your in Dollar profit .... thats called speculating or gambling :p

You are making it to complicated for yourself. Like I said, my entry point was mostly around 0.50 USD and then around 2-3 USD and nevertheless I decided to jump in with some money at 6 USD because it is still cheap. You should also be aware that every day following positive news/rumours could come out:

• GUI wallet finished
• another exchange added XMR
• another DNM adds XMR (would not be so surprised by this)
• not to forget a growing community and as I can see also some new developers

In this case you will stand on the earth and see the evil green rockets start, while muttering how it was too expensive.

The word "some" there refers to restrictions on types of medications. Xanax will be more of a problem (still allowed, in theory, but with added requirements)

There is a ample evidence of government pressure on the payments industry being used not only in this case but more generally to crack down on disfavored businesses that are legal. See Operation Chokepoint. We can't solve every problem in the world with one tool, but that that is absolutely something we can actually do something about.

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