mhh thinking about to sell all my moneroj. It looks like dash will become the leader of anon
It's the difference between short and long term thinking.
To open up, I will share my latest price/scenario analysis for Monero. I did it for the following 32 months (the remainder of this year, and the 2 following years). As it was price scenario, the only variable actually mapped was price, the reasons why the price might go up, down or stay the same, were all approximated as part of the probabilities.
The scenarios had 6 possible prices: 1000, 100, 10, 1, 0.1 and 0 USD, and 0 was considered a terminal failure after which no recovery could happen. Each timepoint (end of year 2015, 2016, 2017) and price were assigned with a conditional probability based on the price in the previous timepoint.
It was always possible to go to 0, the probability that it would happen in a given period ranged from 5-24%. Also every lower price point was always possible. The increase in price was only deemed possible to be 10-200x per period though, excluding black swans. (Much larger price increases are not even uncommon in crypto - BTC had 6400x in less than a year in 2010-2011, and some premined coins have had even larger).
The complete table of conditional probabilities used (expressed in full %) is as follows:
price 2015 16/0.1 16/1 16/10 16/100 17/0.1 17/1 17/10 17/100 17/1000
10000 1 9
1000 1 5 1 12 45
100 2 2 15 50 1 12 45 35
10 15 2 15 40 33 1 10 45 32 4
1 46 20 48 30 5 10 50 32 4 1
0,1 25 54 25 6 1 65 31 4 1 1
0 12 24 10 8 6 24 8 6 5 5
When calculated, it yielded the following price scenario probability table for the end of 2017:
price Prob.... EV
10000 0,0642 % 6,42
1000 0,7535 % 7,54
100 3,9680 % 3,97
10 11,0986 % 1,11
1 23,1005 % 0,23
0,1 27,2754 % 0,03
0 33,7398 % 0,00
It looks like that an investment in Monero will return a loss of 80% or more in 61% probability, which is not promising. Also the probability of a rise to 1000 USD or more (reaching the historical peak in BTC marketcap, in about 2/3 of the timeframe that BTC reached it from launch) is at less than 1%, a reality check confirming the conservative assumptions.
Yet the EV of XMR in the end of the period (the sum of the partial EV in the above table) is 19.29 USD, a 38x gain in 32 months, with an annual expected return of 293%. When we evaluate this result, it is notable that 3/4s of the EV is produced from scenarios where XMR achieves the current size of BTC, or more. It is these scenarios that must exist to make the coin a stellar investment.
Now I don't want to bash Dash, but I haven't seen evidence that it could realistically (<1% (above) is still realistic, 0% is not) achieve such a prominent long-term position.
To create a fat tail probability distribution, there must be few flaws in the system. Dash has too many:
- single developer
- premine
- lying about the premine
- masternodes
- deficient anonymity.
It is like physically reaching the moon. The spacecraft does not need to be high-end, but if there are 5 large holes in its different systems, it soon tilts the odds of actually reaching the moon to become slim.
Monero, on the other hand, seems quite antifragile. The only problem that is as severe as the ones listed above for Dash, is
- botnet mining.
The developers have correctly understood that the potential and payoff for Monero is not in the order of 10-100x the current price, but 1000x or more. The priorities of development are set accordingly.
If Monero and Dash are mooncraft, Monero's design philosophy is to maximize the probability of hitting moon, and the resulting payoff, while Dash concentrates on getting as many people on board as possible.
could you be so kind to reevaluate your calculations from April 2015. I think it would be interesting to see what happens to thos assumptions with nearly a year more of MONERO
