Author

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1550. (Read 3313576 times)

legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
February 14, 2016, 09:46:48 PM
So I have a few thousand XMR I am thinking about lending out on Polo. 
 
I understand the risk is pretty low for a fairly guaranteed return.  What rate do you think I should lend out at?  I'm still a little confused on how the lending rates work.

The risk is that in an explosive price increase short sellers make take so much of a loss that they can't pay back the loan and you will lose principal. That and (compared to keeping coins in your own wallet) the risk getting Goxed. I'll let you decide for yourself whether or when that is a good deal.

As far as the mechanics of how the loans work medusa13 had it right. You set the rate (daily) and the maximum term (2-60 days). If someone borrows from you they can pay back early. Otherwise you continue to get the agreed rate of interest credited to your account quite often (every minute or few minutes).

No one can tell you what rate to set, since it depends entirely on market conditions. Sometimes even 0.0002% may not ever get taken by a borrower. Other times it can be 1% or higher.

People devote entire careers and dedicate supercomputers to the voodoo magic of option pricing.

If you enjoy solving Navier–Stokes equations in your head, you might be able to create a better optimization of the Black–Scholes model than the rest of the market

Here's where to start:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black%E2%80%93Scholes_equation

GLHF   Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1001
February 14, 2016, 09:41:40 PM
shit bounced from 177 to 188 while i awaited confirmation and just looked and it's up again! dammit I need moar cheap!!!!

Alright, cringe, I had about 10 bitcoins sitting in Coinbase collecting dust and this Monero rise has caused me to move them into the circle.  Let's dance with some dragons. 
 
So i just picked up 4,000 more XMR (from that tasty 60 Bitcoin sell wall), fully expecting to get reamed and watch the price drop back to 110,000.  I know i'm not supposed to chase a rising price, but I figure if there was ever an asset to chase, XMR would be the one to do it. 

I went with a bit of the opposite. I'm a bit overweight with XMR, so I took 10% off the top, sold and put buy orders for some lower prices. XMR goes up awesome. XMR goes down, i'll buy back in.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
February 14, 2016, 09:37:16 PM
So I have a few thousand XMR I am thinking about lending out on Polo.  
  
I understand the risk is pretty low for a fairly guaranteed return.  What rate do you think I should lend out at?  I'm still a little confused on how the lending rates work.

The risk is that in an explosive price increase short sellers make take so much of a loss that they can't pay back the loan despite margin requirements and forced liquidation, and you will lose principal. That and (compared to keeping coins in your own wallet) the risk getting Goxed. I'll let you decide for yourself whether or when that is a good deal.

As far as the mechanics of how the loans work medusa13 had it right. You set the rate (daily) and the maximum term (2-60 days). If someone borrows from you they can pay back early. Otherwise you continue to get the agreed rate of interest credited to your account quite often (every minute or few minutes).

No one can tell you what rate to set, since it depends entirely on market conditions. Sometimes even 0.0002% may not ever get taken by a borrower. Other times it can be 1% or higher.
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 500
hello world
February 14, 2016, 09:22:48 PM
So I have a few thousand XMR I am thinking about lending out on Polo.  
  
I understand the risk is pretty low for a fairly guaranteed return.  What rate do you think I should lend out at?  I'm still a little confused on how the lending rates work.

i can not tell you what rate to lend out that coins. the rate you set is per 24 hours, but it gets deducted hourly or maybe even lower timeframes (i am not sure!)

so if a shorter gets 1000 coins from you for 0.5%, but after 2 hours he decides it was not such a good idea and returns the coins to you without doing a trade -> you will still get some, but not the 0.5 %

in my opinions its not worth it, but a lending market should develop, so do what you feel is best.



maybe TC can tell us all about it, he seems to know best..  Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
February 14, 2016, 09:16:09 PM
So I have a few thousand XMR I am thinking about lending out on Polo.  
  
I understand the risk is pretty low for a fairly guaranteed return.  What rate do you think I should lend out at?  I'm still a little confused on how the lending rates work.



Jesse Livermore would often "chase a rising price" - but I think he would consider it more of a case of accumulating a position when a commodity was undervalued, and then adding to that position as it recovered in order to force overcompensation.

 He did make a point of mentioning multiple times that exiting such a position can be quite tricky... But if you expect the commodity in question to be a unit of account in the future, exiting your position might not be a concern.


 
  
God I love that man.  What a legend.  That reminds me it's about that time of year again to go read his memoirs.  
  
Also, I think the fact that people technically never have to exit a crypto position is a massive, massively underestimated advantage to crypocurrency speculation/investing.  With stocks, you always have to exit at some point - right?  But this is one reason Berkshire shares soared ever higher over the years: superior management combined with never having to exit.  
  
This is a lifetime logarithmic price chart of $BRK.  It could very easily become a lifetime price chart for Monero or Bitcoin.  
  
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
February 14, 2016, 09:16:04 PM
shit bounced from 177 to 188 while i awaited confirmation and just looked and it's up again! dammit I need moar cheap!!!!

Alright, cringe, I had about 10 bitcoins sitting in Coinbase collecting dust and this Monero rise has caused me to move them into the circle.  Let's dance with some dragons. 
 
So i just picked up 4,000 more XMR (from that tasty 60 Bitcoin sell wall), fully expecting to get reamed and watch the price drop back to 110,000.  I know i'm not supposed to chase a rising price, but I figure if there was ever an asset to chase, XMR would be the one to do it. 

Jesse Livermore would often "chase a rising price" - but I think he would consider it more of a case of accumulating a position when a commodity was undervalued, and then adding to that position as it recovered in order to force overcompensation.

 He did make a point of mentioning multiple times that exiting such a position can be quite tricky... But if you expect the commodity in question to be a unit of account in the future, exiting your position might not be a concern.

hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
February 14, 2016, 07:37:05 PM
shit bounced from 177 to 188 while i awaited confirmation and just looked and it's up again! dammit I need moar cheap!!!!

Alright, cringe, I had about 10 bitcoins sitting in Coinbase collecting dust and this Monero rise has caused me to move them into the circle.  Let's dance with some dragons. 
 
So i just picked up 4,000 more XMR (from that tasty 60 Bitcoin sell wall), fully expecting to get reamed and watch the price drop back to 110,000.  I know i'm not supposed to chase a rising price, but I figure if there was ever an asset to chase, XMR would be the one to do it. 
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
February 14, 2016, 06:26:44 PM
shit bounced from 177 to 188 while i awaited confirmation and just looked and it's up again! dammit I need moar cheap!!!!
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
February 14, 2016, 05:32:38 PM
Holy volume, Batman!

It's one thing to read the comments about volume, but to look at it on the charts...WHOA.  What the heck has caused THAT spike?  Is it really ETH dumpers?  Whales?  Manipulators?  

Good time to HODL.  I'm not one for jumping in front of trains, whichever direction they are heading.
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
February 14, 2016, 05:32:13 PM
Boing!!!
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
February 14, 2016, 05:28:21 PM
Ace of    
A major publication will come out with a story on Monero.  Slashdot?  Maybe.  Economist?  No, that's 2018.  

Ars?  Motherboard?  Wired?  TechCrunch?  NYT?  WSJ?  FT?  Forbes?  Bloomberg?  RT?  Tech Review?  Chip?  Byte?  Computer Shopper?

Infowars?  Reason?  Popular Science?  Atlantic?  Newsweek?  Reader's Digest?  Playboy?  Foreign Policy?

All of the above!   Cool

Maybe even CoinDesk and CoinTelegraph will realize Monero exists?   Shocked
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
February 14, 2016, 03:50:44 PM
From tip to tip with a peak of 0.002339 we're currently just touching a 50% retracement.

However, a more reliable range can be seen on the 12-hour chart from 0.001217 up to 0.002077 (absent the wicks) which puts us in the 38.2% area... demonstrative of a classic retracement.

It should easily hold... thus laying the foundations for the next upward wave.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 14, 2016, 03:37:41 PM
Seems like my call for shorters to come up yesterday is paying off people.
Shorting Monero enables the liquidity for dumps like these.

Do you mean this morning's price drop is caused by the dump? I thought that is just normal correction after big rise.

I placed a buy at .00175101 just because i was watching before crashing last night and it looked like a shakeout. I see clear skys and strong hands right now. but these guys buying now are pro's not much room for error on large trades. Better to let them push the market and just put on your seat belt. Smiley

Got some moar BTC at coinbase so gotta see where I can scoop some more up at another dip.

This might interest you btw, I think it was you mentioning that it was a PITA to buy at bittrex:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/45n9k0/psa_crossexchange_liquidity_transfers/

I hear yah, thanks

Fortunately with high volume it's not an issue. And I prefer to get dumped into cause I'm cheap. Cheesy

My main issue was trying to put an order in-between the bids/asks and having a bot immediately jump me.


What's your guys best guess as to the next dip's bottom? I'm surprised it's down to .00177 right now.

Edit 5 seconds later: and it's upward again.

Not really suprised it is down that much (compared to the high), it went up 80-90% in 3 days. The 165-170k breakout zone (which should now act as support) was tested multiple (4 looking at the chart) times on high volume, which means it is highly likely to be a strong local bottom. It might get tested again though.

legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
February 14, 2016, 03:33:54 PM
Seems like my call for shorters to come up yesterday is paying off people.
Shorting Monero enables the liquidity for dumps like these.

Do you mean this morning's price drop is caused by the dump? I thought that is just normal correction after big rise.

I placed a buy at .00175101 just because i was watching before crashing last night and it looked like a shakeout. I see clear skys and strong hands right now. but these guys buying now are pro's not much room for error on large trades. Better to let them push the market and just put on your seat belt. Smiley

Got some moar BTC at coinbase so gotta see where I can scoop some more up at another dip.

This might interest you btw, I think it was you mentioning that it was a PITA to buy at bittrex:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/45n9k0/psa_crossexchange_liquidity_transfers/

I hear yah, thanks

Fortunately with high volume it's not an issue. And I prefer to get dumped into cause I'm cheap. Cheesy

My main issue was trying to put an order in-between the bids/asks and having a bot immediately jump me.


What's your guys best guess as to the next dip's bottom? I'm surprised it's down to .00177 right now.

Edit 5 seconds later: and it's upward again.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
February 14, 2016, 02:02:01 PM


There are four aces up Monero's sleeve.  In 2016, the following four things will happen: 
 
Ace of  
A major crypto-personality or celebrity will come out in support of Monero by the dawn of 2017.  This will fuel speculation. 
 
Ace of  
The GUI will come out, and bring with it user-friendliness we can only dream of now. 
 
Ace of    
A major publication will come out with a story on Monero.  Slashdot?  Maybe.  Economist?  No, that's 2018. 
 
Ace of    
The price itself will finally break the all time high of $5 on a monster run, attracting all kinds of new speculator attention. 
 


Together these things are going to make 2016 a banner Monero year.  This is your wake up call Buddy Boy.  Tick-tock.  Also, I'm drunk.  But I can also see the future, so there's that.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 14, 2016, 01:50:31 PM
Seems like my call for shorters to come up yesterday is paying off people.
Shorting Monero enables the liquidity for dumps like these.

Do you mean this morning's price drop is caused by the dump? I thought that is just normal correction after big rise.

I placed a buy at .00175101 just because i was watching before crashing last night and it looked like a shakeout. I see clear skys and strong hands right now. but these guys buying now are pro's not much room for error on large trades. Better to let them push the market and just put on your seat belt. Smiley

Got some moar BTC at coinbase so gotta see where I can scoop some more up at another dip.

This might interest you btw, I think it was you mentioning that it was a PITA to buy at bittrex:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/45n9k0/psa_crossexchange_liquidity_transfers/
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
February 14, 2016, 01:24:32 PM
Seems like my call for shorters to come up yesterday is paying off people.
Shorting Monero enables the liquidity for dumps like these.

Do you mean this morning's price drop is caused by the dump? I thought that is just normal correction after big rise.

I placed a buy at .00175101 just because i was watching before crashing last night and it looked like a shakeout. I see clear skys and strong hands right now. but these guys buying now are pro's not much room for error on large trades. Better to let them push the market and just put on your seat belt. Smiley

Got some moar BTC at coinbase so gotta see where I can scoop some more up at another dip.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
February 14, 2016, 01:16:26 PM
Looks like there are a lot of shorts in the market which is a bullish sign. At least the price cannot dump hard anymore as there are hungry shorters attempting to close in the money. Once the price stabilizes in this area, we are ready for the next leg upwards.

If it goes lower, it requires some heavy dumps. Knowing the past of Monero it definetely is an option as well. Even the shorters might not have enough shorts to stop the dumpers.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
February 14, 2016, 12:32:51 PM
Awesome news!  I believe shapeshift has an affiliate program for incorporating into your wallet.  Might help support the devs

Yes, devs are aware of that.



Update from MoneroMooo:

Quote
Another milestone done. This one took longer because I took a break after the 0.9 push.

Main things I've done on this milestone:

  • fixes for the wallet creating txes over max size the daemon will accept
  • more work on tests (including tests for the MRL-0004 changes)
  • going through all the V1/V2 stuff to catch what I saw was wrong
  • fix for txes not expiring from pool due to other nodes coming online regularly
  • better handling of pending/failed txes in simplewallet
  • new command/RPC to flush txes from the txpool
  • preventing two daemons from using the same data dir concurrently
  • more intelligent handling against duplicate outs
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