Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1906. (Read 3314330 times)

this is a very good price to exit

You make a good point, I haven't considered that perspective. Hard to determine what accounts are real/which have interest in monero. I guess only Busoni and some Polo admins have this info.

Obviously we are totally guessing, but Poloniex has 71k accounts registered (from the bottom of their home page). Given the prominence of XMR on that exchange over the past year I would guess a pretty significant portion (obviously the preceeding three words describe a very wide range) of that number either has XMR or has traded it (but may not happen to own any right now).

I am excited to have you on board with us. I think your entrance price to XMR is a good one and matches my own average price, and probably matches most of our averages.

Someone who is opinionated and willing to speak their mind is important in this type of technology where adoption needs to come quickly for it to be a success.

-EDIT-


I agree with your beliefs here and I seriously doubt anyone is holding 1million XMR.


Here I don't quite agree that we have the assumed 25k persons holding XMR. I would estimate it to be at the most half, most likely around 7-8k holders, but I'm really just ball-parking as we don't have any good way to determine how many are out there.

It won't take many more new comers who are serious about their investment in XMR to take us to new heights.
As always, I'm very bullish.

That's a theory, and I largely disagree with it. Well maybe I agree with 50%, but not 90%.

Bitcoin as a long term store of value is huge unproven and uncertain even now, and that is reflected in its value. Or a better way to say that is the premise of Bitcoin being a long term store of value will accrue to the value over Bitcoin over a long period of time starting when it starts to be a stable store of value (which haven't even started). That premium isn't there, yet.

Also, there is another reason the theory doesn't work.

About the worst case you could think of here would be Bitcoin losing to another crypto without distinct technological advantage (say Litecoin or the like). And then moving to another undifferentiated coin, say DOGE.

But that is easy for investors, or even everyday users to deal with. They need only store their value and trade in a basket of cryptos at which point they don't even care which has value. For example, an investor could completely shield himself from the value of BTC moving to XMR by allocating around 0.3% of his crypto assets to XMR. The value is secure regardless of whether or where it moves. Since movement of value between coins is diversifiable risk, it can't carry a risk premium (equivalent to a negative price risk if the premium goes away). At worst this adds a bit of complexity to wallets, etc.

Naturally, you're all forgetting that scientists are 25 years away from creating the first molecular assemblers, and 100 years away from creating the first atomic assemblers.

In the first instance, molecular assembly, it is indeed possible to 'photocopy' and 'assemble' any material object providing you have the necessary starting elements. In any capacity (including weaponised and/or generated from the funds of national governments) this would inevitably lead to economic catastophe by way of the ease in being able to 'print' unlimited amounts of paper money, along with other intricate valuables, while leaving only the elements themselves (most notably gold and silver).

This is 25 years away.

In the second instance, atomic assembly, there is no need even for a portfolio of base elements as each atom would be generated from a standard abundant element as required (e.g oxygen etc). In this scenario, neither gold or silver is spared from replication, thus leading to total material-as-storage-of-wealth destruction, and while this would theoretically lead to a 'post-scarity economy' of infinite material abundance, it would still leave a gaping hole for economies that cover the service sectors and any other human faculty of labour not represented by physical things (e.g governence).. hence, the global monopolisation of crypto-currencies, as theoretical stores of wealth that are immune from replication.

So yea... Bitcoin... Monero... Good time to buy.

Happy Saturday everyone!

The problem with the above is that if Bitcoin gets dethroned, all of crypto will experience a massive depression that could last quite a long time (10yrs or more). The reason is simple: we have not yet convinced the world that a crypto-currency can be a long-term value-store. We're still fighting that battle every day, and one of the main objections to the idea is that bitcoin is actually not scarce due to the existence of alts. I assert that if an alt, even some theoretical magic-alt with greatly superior tech, eclipses Bitcoin's market-cap, it'll be synonymous with the market-cap of all of crypto dropping by 50-90%, and staying there for a long time.

It has to be clear to the world that crypto can be a long-term store of value before an alt can creep up on Bitcoin without it torpedoing the entire notion of crypto-value-scarcity. So, Risto, in your case where much of the value of Bitcoin flows into an alt, I contend that the holders of that winning alt will still be worse off in fiat terms in the end, due to the destruction of the crypto-ecosystem's value as a whole.


Now that said, as I've been saying for about a year, Monero has a better shot than most alts at becoming the #2 cryptocoin. A year ago, Litecoin was almost 10% of Bitcoin's cap, which was totally ridiculous to anyone with much of a brain. Now it's less than 1.7% of Bitcoin's cap (and I assert it'll be less yet another year from now). Ripple is now #2, but as people increasingly see Ripple for what it is - basically a better bank database tech - the marketcap should drop in BTC terms, especially as people realize that things like Hyperledger may actually be the better choice for banks (eg; no coin, just distributed journaling).

Anyways, that leaves the #2 slot wide open, would could very reasonably equate to 5-8% of Bitcoin's market-cap. Monero fits the bill to occupy that slot for an extended period more than any other alt, for a variety of reasons (all of which are in this thread somewhere). Just gotta wait for the market to get a little smarter.

As you can see from the posted chart we are nearing the end of double digit rewards.

Not usually a fan of TA for XMR, but for those that are, it certainly does seem as though an uptrend is forming. Following the next wave down, anything below 0.002 might now be wishful thinking.

I haven't owned any Monero for a (relatively) long time but I have been buying lately. The technical set up looks interesting, the dev team has handled themselves fairly well in recent times here, there does seem to be some interesting developments and I think slowly over time I've become more interested in the possibilities with CN.

From what I have observed, I think this was quite descriptive, when it was posted.  Wish I had done that.  Hat tip to risto.

We have had such a long period of moderate prices and accumulation opportunities that I find it possible that one entity has up to 1 million XMR. After all it has been possible to buy it for about $1 million, which is peanuts.

However, acquiring such a stake from the market does not serve any logical purpose. Manipulating the price for trading gains can be done with 100k. Becoming filthy rich is Monero succeeds also happens at 100k (or much less). Supporting the coin by buying at dips and thus amassing a fortune that does not make any difference in the positive case, and can never be sold in the negative case, is not rational. Aiming to be the biggest holder for the sake of it, nah. Buying a shitload for the future nefarious purposes is implausible, as the very act of buying a million coins would have been the thing that kept Monero alive (imagine the price without the million coins buying pressure over the months!)

My belief is that the holdings distribution table quoted above is rather well indicative concerning the largest holdings. The bottom tranches depend heavily on the number of XMR holders, which was assumed to be 25,000, but can as well be 10,000 or only 5,000.

I am coming to the Berlin meetup in 23.-24. May with a small delegation. Accepting invitations to events

Top holders probably have a bit bigger stake, tabel you were looking for is beneath.

 
 
Probably the top holder or two has that much.   Where was that rpiella chart showing probable #s of owners by amounts again?

No.  It's impossible.  And I wish I had 80K XMR...  but I do not.

As Changetip said, "Whoa! What happened here?" 
 
Did he socially figure this out?

Wow.  You're dead on.  But what address again?

One post deleted for this reason. One arguably within this rule I barely let go by because it at least asked a question

 
  
That actually is me.  For some reason (likely a dead account of mine), plain old 'americanpegasus' isn't available.  
  
I realized that with 18k Monero I could join the 1/1000 club, and since I feel like a double bottom at 200ish has been reached, it seemed like a good time to acquire my stake.  
  
As far as me being a rookie at a poker table, I would say that I know just enough to hurt myself.  I understand the bid/ask stack game, but am not great at it, and have never been able to consistently profit at it.  Probably for the same reason that I inevitably lose at poker:  
  
I play an amazing game at first, and then get impatient and start fucking with the bets for my own amusement, because watching other players' frustrations is worth more to me than winning.  Seriously, nothing better than carefully establishing that you are a tight-aggressive player (not to be fucked with) over the course of a couple of hours, and carving out respect, then switching to absurd river rat bluffing and watching the wheels and steam spin.  
  
Anyway, what I'm getting at is that I don't intend to dance with you silver spooned bitcoin ballers.  You got algos and deeper pockets than me.  I'm just gonna acquire and hold, and slowly take Monero out of circulation.  I'm not interested in taking other early speculators money; I believe XMR will organically rise in value by such magnitudes that won't be necessary. 
  
So a lot of the recent volume has been me acquiring my 0.1% of all Monero.  Does that mean that the bearish trend line is broken, just because one famous autistic mystical beast just sat down at the table?  
  
I don't know.  
  
You're the pros.  
  
You tell me.  
  
I know this though, I'm pot committed now.  A dip back into the 100's will hurt, but they won't free up any of my chips.  
  
I'M HODLING