Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2037. (Read 3313076 times)

I remain neutral.. I will not sell even the trading position (this might be a mistake once again). However I am not a buyer neither. It is kind of neutral zone, and anyway I have invested probably more than I should into XMR.
I really hope this will go much higher than 0.0029 at some point. And no, not because I am planning to dump. Dumping is not the way money is maximized. My selling strategy is to put small "walls" or fences I would rather say when the price approaches my target prices.
When XMR gets big (if it gets), there should be functioning OTC markets, too which will squeeze the dumps from guys who wish to have complete/partial exit. Thi screates the much needed liquidity to the markets at those days... However it is probably more current thing to be considered in 5-10 yrs from now though... These low exit points (like sub 100 usd public markets can handle I assume).

It is in uptrend when the price breaks resistance levels, as long as it has not broken any levels, it is still in bearish trend. Higher bottoms are not a sign of a bull trend. As long as the previous highs are not broken, it could be in best case a neutral/stabilizing but definetely not bullish.

They know nothing.. Probably tricking you to give them buy support?

I on the other hand feel short-term bearish. The price had a good chance of reaching or breaking the previous top of 194, but the high so far is ominously 192 and both the price and the volume are in a decline. There is a good chance that this is a major intermediate top, and many traders will feel that the uptrend is in question and trade accordingly.

We must remember that the organic growth of interest towards Monero is exponential, with a very low starting value. The nature of exponential growth is such that in the beginning, the absolute numbers grow only slowly, but over time they become very large. It is therefore prudent to compare the speed of the uptrend to the possible actual growth of interest. Otherwise the uptrend will tip over as soon as the traders so decide.

This uptrend has been in force for 16 days, which is quite a bit longer than the Christmastime one, which lasted only 6 days. The position now is much stronger, with (so far) mainly the (so far) failure to take 194 when it was possible (only 5k XMR or so to 194 at its lowest, now 28k) being the alarm signal.

Many things can happen, the interest may renew quickly and buy up the asks in the 190-200 range. Or perhaps the traders smell blood and exit the speculative positions that the long uptrend has caused to pile up. Equally many are speculative "short", which may ease the decline. Sometimes the market also stays the same.

I am going to sleep and predict that we wake up in the low 160s. If that indeed happens, it means that a longer corrective phase lasting weeks and reaching as low as 134 is in the cards. Bears will call it the end of the uptrend, which I disagree with. Even if we make a higher high now, I would still be wary. It was clear that nobody wanted to step in the 194-land even when it was open. It takes a strong push from here to deep in the 200s to get to the next resistance zone above 290. My clients have the funds for doing it, but my feeling is that the coins will be able to be bought cheaper during the breather. As usual, I exhort to prove me wrong, this time by using the green button

Why do you care about this "BCX"? It's very unlikely who you believe it is. Same goes for his account on bitcointalk, most likely sold since a while.

BCX on polo says 500 BTC will be poured in the next 24h hour. He said yesterday there will be 600 in the next 48hours. User "TomCruise" says a lot of things about btc being poured in xmr in the coming hours.

http://www.polonibox.com/?username=BCX
http://www.polonibox.com/?username=tomcruise

WTF do they know that we dont?

sigh 

Please explain yourself.

everybody should sell

I am not planning to sell even my trading position.

This is indeed a green moment. The ask wall at 19 just vanished.

Really showing some strength lately. Definitely the coin of the day when taking volume into account.

it is quite easy - it will be the 2.0 projects as well as the anonymous coins.

what these 2.0 projects are really worth will be seen once ethereum as well as counterparty have released their turing complete smart contracting systems - in both cases I assume that investing in their native currency is not neccessarily the most promising idea - but I assume we can directly invest in the systems build on top of these technologies.

TBH (and i recently switched views regarding this) I wouldn't be surprised that when the next goldrush on crypto happens (whenever that may be) a decent chunk of the incoming money-wave will be directed towards a selection of alts. This time, opposite from last, the picks will be made differently though (ie: more based on promising tech). I still need to find rationalising arguments to support this thesis tho

However I do think that this, again, will be speculative rather then based on usage/adoption. IMO a 'rush' is always speculative, since based on adoption would mean a natural growth (aka slow grind up) adjacent to user/usage growth. I think it's inherent to human nature (cause of herding/group think) that a market behaves like a drunk manic. Especially the illiquid kind we're having here. Don't some people argue that using this phenomenom/trait was Satoshi's strategy to bootstrap/kickstart the crypto-adventure.

Absolutely. Most of the moves down (with a few exceptions of course) have been slow steady erosion due to miner dumping and too little absorbed by investors at existing prices. The moves up have been due to people actually deciding to buy.

Once BTC gets moving again (and I don't mean so much due to speculation), I think we are going to see the next rush into alts and how that plays out is probably BEYOND most anyone's guess.
Once Cryptocurrency becomes more a part of our lives (e.g. an accepted payment system for even a few % of people, investment, store of value, payment system, etc.), then that will be huge adoption, by definition, forget about the rush to get it.

Are we going to continue to Primarily measure these alts in BTC once adoption takes place or will it be in $$$? Does a XMR price of .1 BTC mean that it is 10% of BTC's network strength, use, value to users, etc? Can something anonymous go up that much? Because the before mentioned .1 or .2 BTC price seems impossible to say to me. I think as BTC goes up in price, after an optimal bell curve price in $$$ is reached, I think we will see alts go down in price (BTC ratio), especially the 2.0 stuff. Calling that point will be key.
Tough one to call for a variety of reasons.

Regardless, buy your lotto tickets coin now and take a seat. The show is about to start. 

It is most definitely possible for xmr to reach the above mentioned values per unit. Will it be tomorrow, no. Will it be the coming months? Probably not. In the long run however, anything is possible.

If cryptocurrency develops itself as a new asset class, all those uber-bullish scenarios are very real. The ocean of capital is immense. Even a tiny percentage of it can move worlds, that's why this bet is so much fun. Downside is limited all the while potential upside is huge. It is an enormous IF though, and the "else" would be a lot less positive. The trick is to find a well founded probability for it, which, at least is believed by other actors.


Anyways, I've been studying the charts a little. Anyone else noticed that the moves up are on heavy explosive volume, while the descents are on a fraction of it? With the current bids (and risto's weighted average volume data in the back of our heads) it looks pretty great! reaching the 20's will be a pretty hefty journey , but man oh man what will happen after it....

I agree.

However it was a simplified example of my point. If the community thinks the coin is more valuable than the current price and as a community decides not to sell at any given price (at least any significiant amounts), the price indeed can go anywhere.

I hate also bullish talk since it makes people too excited and they over-position themselves and end up being the victims of pump. However, my scenario is very likely. At some point this could be more expensive than we can even imagine within the wildest dreams.

In the end this is a battle of how strong are the hands of the hodler.
The one who has the most strength will be the richest.

I hope Risto and others with contacts are able to find enough the strongest bagholders for Monero so that it could get to serious price range.

If you hold such a high percentage then no one else is investing in it, and that says something. For your 99.99% to actually mean something there would have to be another buyer out there who wants it. Otherwise its just a dog turd that you've written a big number and a dollar sign on.

If you held that high a percentage of a currency i don't think anyone would want to invest in it.

Well sure. I said 0.1-0.2 BTC. To get to $100 at the low end of that range requires BTC at $1000, at the high end $500. So either way a pretty big increase in BTC is needed for the scenario to happen as I described it.

I do think XMR can increase a lot regardless of what happens to BTC though. Many multiples.


This doesn't really affect the upside potential (which is inherently conditional on such a thing not happening), only the probability of failure.