Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 528. (Read 3314316 times)

Agree on this: interesting too that the BCH "new" community seems to be composed perhaps of more "old(er) school" traditionalists bitcoiners who want the scaling effort attempt to proceed more simply, i.e. Just blocks get bigger and all depends mostly on Metcalfs Law continuing, hardware to keep advancing, bandwidth growing and getting cheaper etc etc

Isn't this kinda also what Monero believers think?  i.e. XMR blockchain getting so big but we're not worrying about it too much around here...

More interesting to see too AFTER this 1x-2x BTC fork, what will happen between the "winner" and BCH... if/when the transaction backlogs come again and what transaction fees will be.... AND what USERS will DO, then...?

Such Speculation. So confuse. Very CryptoTypical. Wow.  

BCH fork created a new crypto wth a new community, based largely on tech considerations on scaling.

November fork is about control, and not tech, so chances of both forks continuing successfully is very small IMO.

2x fork is a winner take ALL, BCH was a divorce

If you buy XMR with BTC, you get about 12% more than you would have gotten yesterday.   Yet XMR USD price is only down about 1%.  I just converted a bit more BTC to XMR, but going to stop for now.

That's not inconsistent. The key question is whether the resulting split-off new coin gets buyers. For it to get buyers it has to have some sort of community supporting it and believing that it has a chance (including maybe even small in numbers but large in wealth, or some such). If not then it will crash to a very low value (much lower than BCH) quickly and then people trying to buy now to get more out of the split will be disappointed. Clearly that can't be the expectation, but it could be the result.

cant disagree with anything here

but i doubt most people think that through the way you just presented it.
i think many speculate like "eh it will be bch all over again but this time i buy before so i get more out of the split"

Immediately after the BCH fork, BTC price dropped. This was predicable and expected, and unlike more efficient markets, in crypto it was actually possible to profit from this drop in a few slightly obscure ways.

Some time later, the BTC price went up, but there is no clear evidence this was a direct result of BCH or that BTC would not have gone up more had some of its value not been split off.

Since we can't really know what causes BTC to rise (or fall), it is difficult to ascribe the rise to BCH and its 'free money'.

There is a viable argument that when beliefs and values differ significantly within a community, the total value might be increased by splitting and giving the two sides the opportunity to each express their full support for a platform consistent with their values rather than a continued fighting over a compromise that satisfies neither. The trade off here is against reduced network effect, but the magnitudes of both factors are completely unknown, so it is certainly possible. This is contingent on both sides of the split actually surviving and amounting to something. The situation with BCH seems still unclear, but it certainly hasn't died yet.

Economics dictates that any such increase in combined value should occur once the split is expected though (not after), so it is possible we could say that the current rise in BTC might be tied in part to the upcoming split(s) (obviously need to balance that against risks that the split(s) could fail or cause other damage, such as by not having replay protection, etc.)

sure but it would really surprise me if the next fork will just create free cash again.

what i mean by that is that bitcoin just holds its price while the new chain has its own value

Not everyone sold it, some obviously bought and continue to buy. It still has a market price of over 300 USD and #4 by CMC.

Its not overturning BTC's lead any time soon but it isn't disappearing either.

I know not smart to buy on weakness, but I added some more XMR today.  It allowed me to take some profits on BTC, and I still feel that XMR will be pulled up by BTC eventually, most likely.

Ok yea it looks like my guess was exactly right. They are calling it "bitcoin gold". This is so stupid. This is why I will never consider any cryptocurrency to be a replacement for gold bullion in hand.

Here's a chart I made that summarizes the major corrections Monero has seen in terms of USD.
(Doesn't embed for some reason.)

I'm not sure that is right in any signifiant way. For a long time we were stuck at rank #10 on CMC and now we are #9. While Monero has lost ground against BTC other high marketcap coins have lost more.

Numerically it is possible Monero's share of the total has decreased modestly but I don't see anything qualitatively significant at all here.

you mean loost?

quite much made on that lost when sold at almost 0.020....

Look at that, you spell losing like that looser walonek, and have the same current agenda. Hmmmm....I must research and see if this means something? Twins, separated at birth? Clones?

The BuyOrders at Poloniex are SO SMALL! if 0.016 will not hold hell is at 0.010.
Hey you "overhyped moroneros" my predicted 0.016 happens and now what? You still belive in yourself? My "meme analysis" makes money and you dissaprove that. noMore. Facts are facts! Better go for ETH. HF is there in ETH should bounce up more than any coin.

i indeed think people expect that they just get free money again like with bitcoin cash.

i mean i get it. bitcoin cash was released, people sold it, and btc went even higher.

but is it likely to happen again? it might but i really doubt it.

also damn my bags are getting heavy. liquidation price still below 0 but not for long if this trend continues

We have been around long enough ( for me less than two years ) to know that coin value doesn´t correlate with project quality. It relies mostly or marketing, FUD, Hype and market manipulations. As the market matures things will be different and strong projects will grow. Not only Monero, but Monero for sure.

Supply diminishes drastically from here.

Looks like monero has been dropping a lot in the last week, i dont know the real reason of it, but it is weird to see it dropping a lot because this is one of the most strong altcoins that are on the market right now.
it is so weird.. What do you think guys? will it recover soon or not? it is $86 atm, and it touched $80 on today's morning, i dont know what to expect from monero, i thought it was going to reach $200.