Right now I would guess that DHL is the lion's share of the darknet economy, and as I haven't been invited, I don't think I can see what is going on there. Can we get a report from inside please?
My suspicion is that XMR is a small minority of darknet xns, BTC being the bulk still, but that this will change when a new open-to-the-public DNM takes the lead. eMule, Kad, BitTorrent dominate over DirectConnect, for example. DHL will not lead for long, and with Cazes dangling by his neck in Bangkok, I think that coming leader will use XMR exclusively, p > 90%, to avoid a similar fate.
The big gains in XMR are yet to come. Not so sure the same can be said for BTC or ETH. Whether they first come from Evergreen or from DNMs, I will not concern myself. As Jesse Livermore noted: You don't get paid to trade; you get paid to wait.
Rising difficulties always have the effect of upward price pressure, since the marginal miner is forced to hold out for higher prices, to remain profitable. Pricing equilibria are determined at the margins.
Current pricing seems fair to Fisher's law, but discounts the upside speculation far more than could be called rational, presumably because the tarnish affecting ICOs after bubble phenomena like FileCoin is creating a short-term contraction of the whole crypto sector. But that won't last long. The sector is much more diverse now, and the time preferences of the players are longer on average. Duration is being bid. That means the dip will be much shallower and shorter than, e.g. the post-Gox debacle.
As regards taking a flyer on a whitepaper, the false positive rate is a deal-killer right now: Too many pikers chasing too few punts. I would keep my punt in XMR.
P.S. the secular gold bull, dollar bear is looming again.
My suspicion is that XMR is a small minority of darknet xns, BTC being the bulk still, but that this will change when a new open-to-the-public DNM takes the lead. eMule, Kad, BitTorrent dominate over DirectConnect, for example. DHL will not lead for long, and with Cazes dangling by his neck in Bangkok, I think that coming leader will use XMR exclusively, p > 90%, to avoid a similar fate.
The big gains in XMR are yet to come. Not so sure the same can be said for BTC or ETH. Whether they first come from Evergreen or from DNMs, I will not concern myself. As Jesse Livermore noted: You don't get paid to trade; you get paid to wait.
Rising difficulties always have the effect of upward price pressure, since the marginal miner is forced to hold out for higher prices, to remain profitable. Pricing equilibria are determined at the margins.
Current pricing seems fair to Fisher's law, but discounts the upside speculation far more than could be called rational, presumably because the tarnish affecting ICOs after bubble phenomena like FileCoin is creating a short-term contraction of the whole crypto sector. But that won't last long. The sector is much more diverse now, and the time preferences of the players are longer on average. Duration is being bid. That means the dip will be much shallower and shorter than, e.g. the post-Gox debacle.
As regards taking a flyer on a whitepaper, the false positive rate is a deal-killer right now: Too many pikers chasing too few punts. I would keep my punt in XMR.
P.S. the secular gold bull, dollar bear is looming again.
Profound reading as always. Thank you.
So you're as bullish on XMR as always my G?
