Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 928. (Read 3314350 times)

Long live The Honey Badger!   

Don't overthink the initial allocation.  Just go 50/50 Bitcoin/Monero.

The hard part comes later, when you must use sound judgement and self-discipline to reallocate, diversify, and rebalance.

Right before the price explosion, I sold off my beloved technologically interesting but less socially/economically viable coins (ETH, XPM, XCN, BBR, XDN, VIA) and went 50/50 BTC/XMR.

Best move I've ever made.  But now I am entirely unable to bring myself to rebalance my completely lopsided allocation.

That's because I see Monero becoming what Bitcoin is now (worth ~$750).  And this time I'm not going to sell out too early.

Thanks to the benevolence of the Moon Goddess, the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for less than $8 is here again; act (and hodl) accordingly.

Only 2800 unconfirmed on my node, no big deal....
Roll on larger blocks!

What I found really interesting was the introduction by O'Brien Makore. He is a young enthusiastic Bitcoin supporter in Zimbabwe who believes that Bitcoin can help the people of his country. The reality is very different: If even a small percentage of the population of Zimbabwe actually use Bitcoin the Bitcoin blockchain with its 1 MB blocksize limit will grind to a halt. Wait a minute blockchain.info is showing over 80 K unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions at the time of this post. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

BitcoinMeister speculates on Monero becoming number 2 crypto currency replacing Etherium.
He has been pretty accurate recently about Monero so perhaps this is good news.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNEpuSTJ8wE

So, large Chinese corporations are now going to start buying BTC instead of doing multi-billion dollar overseas M&A deals now? Right. Smartest thing they could do would be to by ASIC producers and mining farms IMO. When that starts to happen then it is would have to agree that it is game on. Until then I remain unconvinced that the current China price premium is doing anything other than (correctly IMO) discounting the probability of further USD strength/Yuan devaluation.

The most surprising thing about this article is that ZH did not actually mention Gold and Bitcoin (or India!)

@bitebits : I see the logic in your theory, but it only holds as long as those BTC whales already own enough XMR to suppress the price, or can acquire enough to sell by borrowing/buying/mining, without affecting the price.
Otherwise you are left with a situaion where current XMR whales control the market, and may do exactly as you say in order to accumulate more, but there will be an order of magnitude more buyers trying to buy back in at those lower prices. So how low can it go? The recoil would be epic though if this played out!

Interesting line of thought. This argument however only flies when the whales are already owning their stake in Monero.

Because of the recent pump, Monero got on the radar of a number of new people. Surely some of them being Bitcoin whales. These whales obviously want to pay as less bitcoin as they can for their admired stake in Monero.

Now their problem is that the price still is more than 5x the price before the recent pump (+0.01 btc instead of 0.002 btc, even worse in terms of dollars). Therefore I expect a constant xmr/btc price pressure applied for the next six to twelve months, especially with a still bullish Bitcoin after it's painfully long bear market. Whales are way more patient and experienced than average Joe traders.


Disclaimer: I have my fair Monero share so I don't care much, except for the fact that I might currently be a bit over-exposed in Monero because of the recent rise in price.

the thing is, the ratio was much lower when i was accumulating the xmr. but then the price went up and my investment went up ~20x.  

similar to the early btc days, its hard to manage such changes in wealth distribution. BUT, and its a big but, i am trying to make the kind of investment in xmr as i would have done for btc if i had known what btc would have become, if that makes sense. so here we are after huge gains in xmrbtc and while i have reduced the ratio, im just not willing to part with such a huge lottery ticket. thats why i sort of say "is what is"... i'm trying to further reduce that ratio (as i do with btc-usd ratio), but if the xmr price keeps pushing upwards, its not the kind of train i want to miss out huge on (and im already set with the amount of btc). i probably would not invest that ratio of btc into xmr now, so i should probably reduce a little, but big risk big reward, etc...

Thanks for posting... that's a little more aggressive/optimistic than where I am: I'm about 10-1 BTC to XMR still, even though my overall Monero position has long since left my overall Bitcoin returns in the dust, just thinking about maybe bumping it up to 15%-ish

Anyone else have suggested ratio they believe in?

P.S. One thing to consider just as a "fun thought" in my opinion is: the days of any ordinary average Joe being able to become a billionaire using just BITCOIN is long gone... if any cryptocurrency is ever going to achieve the Holy Grail of world domination and be valued at today's equivalent of $1 Million dollars purchasing power PER UNIT of coin, you'd need to have already stockpiled 1,000 bitcoins to see that happen.

Even back when bitcoins were only trading for $100 each, that would've been a commitment of the value of a small HOUSE, which most people cannot and should not attempt!!  And nowadays it's already requiring from a half million to a million dollars value, so yes a millionaire today can become a billionaire with just bitcoin now (and some out there may yet accomplish this, Risto? LOL) but it's clearly long been out of reach for just an average Joe.

But... with XMR even Joe Average *might* still be able to pull this off!! 

A thousand XMR is still "only" the value of a shitty used car... about $5000 to $10,000

Personally I'm not there yet (pretty far away, sadly) but I'm keeping it in mind IF ONLY somehow, soon enough, I may be able to stockpile 1,000 Moneroj...?

If so, *maybe* I still have a small shot at retirement as a crypto billionaire some day on my own private island somewhere LOL

Monero is still a very speculative coin. On the plus side it is one of the very few altcoins that have made a higher high than when trading started. While it is fun to consider $100 Monero remember that the September high of .0265 has to be taken out first and that is not going to be easy. 95% bitcoin to 5% Monero is a conservative ratio. I have a hard time recommending more because a reliable hardware wallet for Monero does not exist yet. Other than an official GUI release of a hardware wallet should drive price up.

as a very long-term holder of btc and an early investor in xmr. at current prices, im sitting at ~75-20-5% btc-xmr-other.
is what is.

It is possible to drive the price of Monero up by accelerating its demand. It is in the best interest of a large holder(s) to drive the price up since it is relatively cheap way to inflate the wealth of a Monero whale. And the rising price will attract more people into Monero which will further drive the price of Monero higher.
I agree Monero should be at 100 usd a piece currently so it is severely underpriced asset.

Btc probably more likely to up imo.... Bullish news from China

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-26/china-unveils-new-capital-controls-freezing-ma-frenzy

The harder decision for me lately has been what percentage of overall crypto to keep in BITCOIN versus MONERO.

XMR clearly has more long-term upward potential, from this current sub-$10 that really IMHO should already be $50-$100, and maybe even better short-term upward potential with possibly less downside too.

So, logically if true, that'd mean "all in" on ONLY XMR would be best, but I somehow can't bring myself to completely abandon Honey Badger either LOL

I still hold more bitcoin than anything else but my ratio of XMR/BTC probably really SHOULD be higher. 

Just can't really decide how much is "correct" lately

I am holding about what I want to.  So, I am not selling to buy back, I am buying a few extra to sell my average down.  If I buy and can't sell it, I have extra to HODL, but if the chance to sell the extra comes I am not emotionally attached to it.  Works for me.   And a big dip is always possible.  Just make sure you have a few buys set 'just in case'.  It makes holding easier if you know you have a little bonus coming because of a sudden dip.

Long term Monero is a good bet, so it's not so stressful ;-)

My gut says up as a result of BTC heading down. I think that is the fuel we are wiating for.

@KeyJockey -  thanks for your detailed review of the GUI. very cool  . Gonna wait for the compatable Daemon b4 trying the Windows version. Kinda glad I am at least experiencing the CLI version for a bit first too.

Yeah that's probably a reasonable way to do it, but really only works with something like XMR in it's current state-of-being... basically this is the "BTFD" strategy (funny video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4 )

It works as long as the oscillations are fairly stable, but if/when there's a Big Dip you're screwed.  Go ask the ZCash early buyers how well BTFD is working for them, LOL, they're gonna be waiting forever to get back to their million-dollar coin LOL

OTOH if there's a Big Dip in XMR then HODL'ers are screwed too... so... no free lunch in any case I guess.

Supply times 100 000 (marbles?).

How much would the Market Cap have to be for each one to be 100 000?

It is really hard to tell short term.
In the mid term I think it will go up (spring is coming).
In the long term my gut says it will be 100 000 usd each.

EDIT: Sorry, I meant the price in the long term is 1 000 000 usd each for obvious reasons.  
EDIT2: Sorry, I meant the price in the long term is 10 000 000 usd each for obvious reasons.  

does your gut say up or down?