Original article here:
http://ecoinomist.com/xpm-primecoin-price-bottomedEver since Primecoin has been on exchange, we have seen quite a radical price swing from as low as 0.0019 to as high as 0.019 (x10 times fluctuation) just within the space of one week.
This is by the far the most profitable altcoin to date for speculators to trade with the typical price swing of 10-20% per day if sold/bought in the right time, with huge initial volume of trading that no other crypto has matched for such an early release stage.
So why has the price hit the floor recently?Some possible explanations:
A)While it's not profitable to mine with VPS, such as DigitalOcean or Amazon EC2 any more, the early miners like myself, who mined XPM in the first few weeks were able to mine at a profit even at the current exchange rate of 0.0061, mainly because the difficulty back then was way lower than now. But just like many miners, I saw a very rapid price increase x10 times just within the space of one week, thus suspected XPM might be on big exchanges like BTC-e soon. So I held on and did not sell much.
Now many VPS miners end up with a stash of XPM that they have paid hard cold real world cash for, which for some, due to economical reasons, they might have to sell some in order to recoup back the initial investment.
These are the kind of reluctant sellers, who would only sell just enough to cover his/her overhead -> thus we observe low volume of Primecoin trading lately.
The major Primecoin exchange mcxNow has hit the lowest XPM trading volume ever at ~170 BTC per day.
B)The only people remain mining XPM right now are the botnets (zero overhead) and VPN operators who have access to server computers at much cheaper prices.
For botnets, obviously the is no need for price consideration when it comes to selling - they make profit at any rate.
This might well be what the current reality is, if we look at the infrequent trading volume that tends to spike out of nowhere:
Whereas in the peak period the trading volume was spread quite evenly between all hours of the day.
In ConclusionThe current Primecoin market is dominated by a few big XPM holders and speculative buyers.
But we shall see some changes very soon, when a working GPU miner comes out, which will certainly even out the playing field for everyone.
Dus tot he difficulty machenics of Primecoins, higher mining power means higher difficulty, which results in fewer XPM rewards per block. And because Primecoin has dynamic difficulty adjustment that changes on a per block basis, it means Primecoin will become a lot more scarce then it is now.
The question is...
How well will Primecoin be received by the GPU community?Based on this thread, the interest seems to be astronomical.
Also, considering that fact that Litecoin has become increasingly hard to mine, and all the other altcoins really have no true innovation or future, besides pure hype and speculation, Primecoin is the only one at the moment to fill that gap for large and small GPU rig owners.