Yellen says economy shows no signs of recession

Theones

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Quote from: LoyceMobile on August 29, 2022, 10:12:51 AM

Quote from: be.open on August 28, 2022, 04:10:15 AM

The task and responsibility of the state is to increase spending on large-scale infrastructure projects in order to compensate for the decline in spending by private households and so that the economy does not slide into a depressive self-rewinding spiral. But if the state is already mired in debt over the years of life with a chronic budget deficit, then this is really a problem.

There's another problem: anti-cyclic investing by government doesn't work if the recession is combined with high inflation caused by shortage of products. Any government investment will increase demand and thus further inflate prices.

In progressive countries - they cope up with the problems very well.
However - the underdeveloped countries are always coming up with excuses. The fact of the matter is - it the need of time to brace yourself for the upcoming calamities. Better safe than sorry!

LoyceMobile

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Quote from: be.open on August 28, 2022, 04:10:15 AM

The task and responsibility of the state is to increase spending on large-scale infrastructure projects in order to compensate for the decline in spending by private households and so that the economy does not slide into a depressive self-rewinding spiral. But if the state is already mired in debt over the years of life with a chronic budget deficit, then this is really a problem.

There's another problem: anti-cyclic investing by government doesn't work if the recession is combined with high inflation caused by shortage of products. Any government investment will increase demand and thus further inflate prices.

be.open

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Quote from: LoyceMobile on August 28, 2022, 03:46:51 AM

Quote from: 2stout on August 28, 2022, 02:31:58 AM

If anything, this will make the general public angry for insulting their intelligence.

Doubtful. Most people just believe it when government tells them there's no recession. And that's the intention of course: if people believe there's a recession, they'll spend less money.

I think it's normal and natural for the average person to spend less money in troubled times and it's hard to blame them for that. The task and responsibility of the state is to increase spending on large-scale infrastructure projects in order to compensate for the decline in spending by private households and so that the economy does not slide into a depressive self-rewinding spiral. But if the state is already mired in debt over the years of life with a chronic budget deficit, then this is really a problem.

LoyceMobile

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Quote from: 2stout on August 28, 2022, 02:31:58 AM

If anything, this will make the general public angry for insulting their intelligence.

Doubtful. Most people just believe it when government tells them there's no recession. And that's the intention of course: if people believe there's a recession, they'll spend less money.

2stout

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This is sort of insulting, like me not believing what I am experiencing but instead believing the total opposite, which is contrary to what is going on. I get the whole reassurance and avoiding panic by the general public, but the signs have been around and haven't disappeared. If anything, this will make the general public angry for insulting their intelligence.

Theones

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Quote from: bittraffic on August 14, 2022, 01:21:21 AM

It's about not making people think they are not in deep trouble. I guess it's working though. The countries that are far poorer are much in trouble than the country who has the reserve. We in the third world are going to suffer more if things become uncontrollable.

Jerome Pal admitted how little did he know about inflation and everything is temporary I guess including this recession. They don't want to start panic.

The whole world is in the state of panic - and I haven't met anyone during this time who says he is happy and things are going perfectly well.
People are unable to find jobs here - but one good thing most of the people are finding ways to earn money online. They are coming in freelancing and that business is blooming.

bittraffic

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It's about not making people think they are not in deep trouble. I guess it's working though. The countries that are far poorer are much in trouble than the country who has the reserve. We in the third world are going to suffer more if things become uncontrollable.

Jerome Pal admitted how little did he know about inflation and everything is temporary I guess including this recession. They don't want to start panic.

LoyceMobile

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When a politician says there are no signs of recession, that statement on it's own is a sign of recession. If it wasn't, there would be no need to say it.

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We live in times of economic recovery in all countries and that has caused some to be in greater recession than others as a result of those two terrible years that will continue to have a long-term effect on some countries more than others.

Quote from: Hydrogen on July 25, 2022, 06:56:23 PM

...//..::
Sometimes, I catch a glimpse of what is being said on televised news. And it is like a completely different world from the articles published on the internet. The content is completely different Has anyone had this experience?

My news sources may be very different from yours, but in the sense that you are asking, both traditional media and those on the Internet have somehow lost the objective of reliable information. Before, any journalistic media would verify that reliable was sources or they could verify it themselves.

So that promptness for being the first to have exclusive news means that there is sometimes that disparity in the comparison of the news that one consumes in order to be informed.

Gyfts

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Quote from: be.open on July 28, 2022, 12:52:02 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on July 28, 2022, 10:20:33 AM

Quote from: be.open on July 28, 2022, 09:50:33 AM

Financial Times: US economy shrinks for second quarter in a row

Technically, it's a recession.

U.S. government seems to want to change what "recession" means as if the economic numbers don't indicate dire consequences of post COVID fiscal policies. I'm looking for whatever excuse they can find to explain the numbers and don't find anything worthy of salvage. Hiring is slowing for the U.S. economy, wages are not growing, inflation is high. Perhaps the federal reserve is unwilling to recognize reality, or perhaps they are truly as incompetent as everyone thinks.

Or perhaps they think ordinary people are idiots. There are many options and one does not exclude the other.

All the above seems applicable. Wrong about inflation, wrong about a recession. What else aren't they telling us?

Quote from: Silberman on July 28, 2022, 08:53:48 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on July 28, 2022, 10:20:33 AM

U.S. government seems to want to change what "recession" means as if the economic numbers don't indicate dire consequences of post COVID fiscal policies. I'm looking for whatever excuse they can find to explain the numbers and don't find anything worthy of salvage. Hiring is slowing for the U.S. economy, wages are not growing, inflation is high. Perhaps the federal reserve is unwilling to recognize reality, or perhaps they are truly as incompetent as everyone thinks.

This is one of the classic tactics of politicians, they are just moving the goalposts and nothing more, it is similar to what they do with inflation or unemployment in which they modified the criteria to give the impression the inflation and the unemployment are lower, but if we used the previous criteria we can see that inflation and unemployment are way higher than what we thought, so it is not really that surprising they are trying to do the same with the recession term.

Yellen is not even the proverbial politician lying to their constituency in order to win at the ballot box, though she talks like a politician. Unfortunately, these are the types of folks that operate centralized financial institutions. There is no escaping the conflation of party politics and the fiscal policy of a nation's economy. I question Yellen's motive and competency.

Theones

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Quote from: adaseb on July 28, 2022, 10:42:46 PM

Well right now if you ask around, most people will think the same. It doesn’t seem like we are in a recession. We got great job reports and shortage of workers everywhere. People are buying everything like crazy and over paying and causing inflation to go up even higher. People got jobs, businesses make money, everyone is happy. Doesn’t sound like a recession.

However the technicals suggest we might head into one because this path we are on is not sustainable. Inflation can’t go up 1% every month and unemployment numbers can’t be this low. Eventually it will crack, the question is when.

Yellen does not say the right thing - every country is in recession
However they pretend that they will not be in hot water but they are.

adaseb

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Well right now if you ask around, most people will think the same. It doesn’t seem like we are in a recession. We got great job reports and shortage of workers everywhere. People are buying everything like crazy and over paying and causing inflation to go up even higher. People got jobs, businesses make money, everyone is happy. Doesn’t sound like a recession.

However the technicals suggest we might head into one because this path we are on is not sustainable. Inflation can’t go up 1% every month and unemployment numbers can’t be this low. Eventually it will crack, the question is when.

Darker45

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They're now changing the game. They're now shifting into a play of words and meanings. All for the sake of denial. This seems to be an action of last resort. When the hard facts on the ground say otherwise, when reality itself doesn't support their claims, when numbers themselves are not backing up their words, they change the definition.

They're now doing away with the established definition that recession means having negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters. Such definition can't support their denial anymore.

In roughly just a week, there were already 41 attempts to edit the definition of recession. This led to a Wikipedia admin to disable its editing.^[1]

[1] https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/28/wikipedia-change-definition-recession/

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Quote from: Silberman on July 28, 2022, 08:53:48 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on July 28, 2022, 10:20:33 AM

Quote from: be.open on July 28, 2022, 09:50:33 AM

Financial Times: US economy shrinks for second quarter in a row

Technically, it's a recession.

U.S. government seems to want to change what "recession" means as if the economic numbers don't indicate dire consequences of post COVID fiscal policies. I'm looking for whatever excuse they can find to explain the numbers and don't find anything worthy of salvage. Hiring is slowing for the U.S. economy, wages are not growing, inflation is high. Perhaps the federal reserve is unwilling to recognize reality, or perhaps they are truly as incompetent as everyone thinks.

This is one of the classic tactics of politicians, they are just moving the goalposts and nothing more, it is similar to what they do with inflation or unemployment in which they modified the criteria to give the impression the inflation and the unemployment are lower, but if we used the previous criteria we can see that inflation and unemployment are way higher than what we thought, so it is not really that surprising they are trying to do the same with the recession term.

I think the US has been in a recession for a long time, so we don't have to wait until the second quarter GDP growth report is negative to really say they're entering a recession. The primaries are about to start so the government will do its best not to notify the people of this, it will have a profound effect on the upcoming primaries. Everything has to do with politics and it's no surprise that they do this.

Silberman

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Quote from: Gyfts on July 28, 2022, 10:20:33 AM

Quote from: be.open on July 28, 2022, 09:50:33 AM

Financial Times: US economy shrinks for second quarter in a row

Technically, it's a recession.

U.S. government seems to want to change what "recession" means as if the economic numbers don't indicate dire consequences of post COVID fiscal policies. I'm looking for whatever excuse they can find to explain the numbers and don't find anything worthy of salvage. Hiring is slowing for the U.S. economy, wages are not growing, inflation is high. Perhaps the federal reserve is unwilling to recognize reality, or perhaps they are truly as incompetent as everyone thinks.

This is one of the classic tactics of politicians, they are just moving the goalposts and nothing more, it is similar to what they do with inflation or unemployment in which they modified the criteria to give the impression the inflation and the unemployment are lower, but if we used the previous criteria we can see that inflation and unemployment are way higher than what we thought, so it is not really that surprising they are trying to do the same with the recession term.

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Quote from: Gyfts on July 28, 2022, 10:20:33 AM

Quote from: be.open on July 28, 2022, 09:50:33 AM

Financial Times: US economy shrinks for second quarter in a row

Technically, it's a recession.

U.S. government seems to want to change what "recession" means as if the economic numbers don't indicate dire consequences of post COVID fiscal policies. I'm looking for whatever excuse they can find to explain the numbers and don't find anything worthy of salvage. Hiring is slowing for the U.S. economy, wages are not growing, inflation is high. Perhaps the federal reserve is unwilling to recognize reality, or perhaps they are truly as incompetent as everyone thinks.

Or perhaps they think ordinary people are idiots. There are many options and one does not exclude the other.

amishmanish

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Rich guys are pulling levers to make poor work. Its nothing more. Many of our current miseries are created ones. Be it Ukraine war, be it banking crisis in china or high pricxes of oil. These are nothing but rich men trying to push the poor into poverty and keep them enslaved. For some it is a black swan.

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Quote from: be.open on July 28, 2022, 09:50:33 AM

Financial Times: US economy shrinks for second quarter in a row

Technically, it's a recession.

Sure I don't think it will have to take all continent economy to go back to zero before we get it that economies of today are not same 10 years back especially with the sec increase and inflation hike. This is to some economy as recession because they are going through hard times and policies not working, they go borrowing to finance capital projects and pay salaries, that is recession.

Gyfts

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Quote from: be.open on July 28, 2022, 09:50:33 AM

Financial Times: US economy shrinks for second quarter in a row

Technically, it's a recession.

U.S. government seems to want to change what "recession" means as if the economic numbers don't indicate dire consequences of post COVID fiscal policies. I'm looking for whatever excuse they can find to explain the numbers and don't find anything worthy of salvage. Hiring is slowing for the U.S. economy, wages are not growing, inflation is high. Perhaps the federal reserve is unwilling to recognize reality, or perhaps they are truly as incompetent as everyone thinks.

LoyceMobile

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What happened that we all fear a recession nowadays? Isn't that a normal "wave" in a normal economy? Let it happen, ride it out, and let the economy grow stronger. Isn't that how the economy used to work?

Topic: Yellen says economy shows no signs of recession (Read 325 times)