Yesterday marked 200 days to Bitcoin Halving

MFahad

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on October 11, 2023, 10:31:41 PM

From what I observe on this current price level and compare it to previous Bitcoin block halvings. I am more positive that we will not see anymore new lows, maybe a very nonstable or sideways will still be there, 200 days are still long plus we are about to end the 2023 year, so we should expect the unexpected.

The price is 26k$ approximately these days and hopefully there will be no dip because before every halving price reduces to such extent and then become elevated as its a sign of positivity towards halving.

we cannot see the continuous increase as at some stages there will be reduction in price but that reduction is not of much worries as it just for little timing and is also beneficial for those who don't have any bitcoin yet.

In 2024 there will be more news for us which will enhance our courage so don't loss hope if for sometimes price reduces because both sides are full of advantages.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Zaguru12 on October 12, 2023, 02:08:18 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 11, 2023, 11:58:06 PM

you are correct as a huge amount of hash could go online and speed it up 🆙 to march and 2024 or a huge amount of hash could go offline slowing it to May 2024.

Or the hashrate could simply go sideways and the ½ ing will be in April

While the hashrate plays a vital role in how the miners get the block confirmed fast. I don’t see it greatly affecting the date of this halving because of the difficulty adjustment that the bitcoin network has. Once we get to see a huge increase of hashrate and the confirmation of block gets lower like below 10 minutes (say lowest 7 minutes, because I don’t see it getting lower than that) then after a confirmation of 2016 blocks the difficulty will definitely adjust to accommodate that high hashrate and if it gets higher again it will still adjust and make it hard to get solve the puzzle that gets the block confirmed and vice verse should it get lower.

Also with the amount required for equipments that would get a very high hashrate and also the vast amount of miners available I don’t see pools or individual miners spending much to get a high hashrate because they will definitely want to maximize profits.

Here are is a link on how hashrate increases and how the difficulty also adjusts.

This also is a difficulty estimator that’s helps in calculating the next difficulty,

you don't understand I can explain. I know a lot about the difficulty I have run difficulty threads on bitcointalk for 10 years.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5431167

the difficulty prediction and pace is my wheelhouse of expertise

Quote

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   811939 (11 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   107.4606% (1508 / 1403.30 expected, 104.7 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   57119871304635.31
Current Difficulty:   57321508229258.04
Next Difficulty:   between 61317880539763 and 61609106425381
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.9719% and +7.4799%
Previous Retarget:   October 3, 2023 at 3:56 AM (+0.3530%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 4:36 AM (in 3d 6h 47m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 6:05 AM (in 3d 8h 16m 11s)

Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 0h 40m 21s and 13d 2h 9m 13s

see the epoch length in black a huge amount of hash is going online this 2 week or 14 day period.

So much is going online we are doing 14 days in 13

So we gain a day in two weeks.

this could happen (unlikely) 14 times as 14 x 14 = 196 about the days left. and each time we could do
13 not 14 days (unlikely) but if paced this way we could speed the ½ ing by 14 days.

other direction could happen.

a jump could take 15 days not the average 14.

we could do about 15 all a day long and end up 15 days slower. also unlikely.

Another way to slow is 1 day into a jump with 13 days left hash could drop 60% and that jump would take around 30 days not 14

unlikely but kind of happened in spring of 2021 when China kicked out a lot of miners.

Realistically if we do a perfect pace (unlikely) we will have ½ ing https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/

in 185 days and 16 hours and 41 minutes.

a safe give or take is 171 to 199 days.

more likely 175 to 195 days as outside those numbers means very odd hashrate moves

Bitcoinpoly

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Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on October 11, 2023, 11:47:43 AM

Bitcoin is 200 days to halving yesterday being the 10th day of October, 2023.
Halving is an event that occurs every four years supposedly, it is a period that historical patterns shows that prices tend to rally, even clearing previous all-time highs once it happens.

In a price chart shared by the “thescalpingpro” on X on October 9, the analyst appears to suggest that the world’s most valuable coin is in the early stages of not only breaking above 2021 highs but registering new highs after the network halves in 2024.
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/10/11/RRpog.png

EARLY SIGNS OF BULL RALLY: 200 DAYS BEFORE HALVING.

Thus far, the trader(thescalpingpro) notes that Bitcoin is down 60% from previous all-time highs in 2021. This formation, the analyst says, appears to replicate the same pattern before Bitcoin halved in 2019. Then, just like it is presently, the coin fell 60% from 2017 highs of around $20,000.

As historical pattern shows, Bitcoin prices tend to bounce back strongly after posting sharp losses from previous highs. These upswings are often accelerated by the halving event momentum, pushing prices further away from cyclical lows.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/10/11/RRDxI.png

Every four years, Bitcoin halving occurs, where the reward for mining a Bitcoin block is reduced by half. This feature is built into the protocol to slow the issuance of new Bitcoin. Due to the decrease in the number of coins released to circulation during halving, inflation is reduced, which supports prices, as previous price action has shown.

Although the impact of halving has been well studied, the sequence of events preceding this event appears to be stirring demand. As aforementioned, 200 days before the 2016 and 2019 halvings, Bitcoin fell roughly 60% from all-time highs.

The asset’s prices are at a similar price point precisely 200 days before halving. For this “near-perfect” replication of events, “thescalpingpro” is bullish that the coin might follow a familiar pattern of past cycles.

Bitcoin Race To $48,000 Before Halving?

The spike to all-time highs and beyond, as previewed, is a scenario that could happen once the halving happens. Before then, however, another analyst is convinced the coin could rally to $48,000.

The analysis is based on crucial support and resistance levels formed by the Fibonacci retracement levels. The analyst is convinced that the coin will retest the 61.8% of the swing high low of the recent 2021 to 2022 range, placing Bitcoin at $48,000 once it recovers.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/10/11/RRWPd.png

The race to this level will be further driven by “halving momentum” and the “bear-to-bull transition from various indicators,” including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and the on-balance volume of major exchanges, which appear oversold.

REFERENCE... https://www.binance.com/en/feed/post/1295002?ref=25201067&utm_campaign=app_share_link

I came across this post and was actually amazed, it got my hopes high on bitcoin concerning the coming halving, but i cant on my own confirm is what the trader(Thescalpingpro) claimed is true, this is why i decided to share here, to get an idea of what you guys think.

I think this is just the best time to buy more and hodl, a lots benefits to accrue when the bull market comes, though we can still invest our assets while hodling any token we have, just like the Bitget Flexible savings.

Cryptomultiplier

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BTC halving is so much talked about that it would be a colossal waste of time if the halving fails to achieve its aim. The frame is sometime in April and I know it is a process and would be effected earlier than the deadline for completion of the halving.

200days or not, is just but days being counted to a possibility that has happened before with little knowledge. As compared to now when more miners and customers and users and technology has helped it retain a dominant spot on the crypto heirachy, the halving will make some millions in profit or loss, but the bottom line is the bull markets after it, that's where the advantage is.

kryptqnick

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While many people pointed out that measuring halving up to the exact day is tricky, I want to address another thing.
I don't buy into this kind of chart analysis, to be honest, primarily because I believe it's very easy to manipulate charts to make all sorts of points by playing with the scope and the scale. What I do believe in is that Bitcoin will rise eventually, probably during next year, but I don't think it's relater to halving or to 200 days before halving in any way.
It can look fancy and sound legit, but that doesn't mean it's true.

Dave1

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Regardless though of what will be date as we really don't know exactly when it's going to fall, It's obvious by now that it will be +/- 200 days. And with that we still have some time to really accumulate before the bitcoin halving comes. And we all know that this is the catalyst for the next bull run.

And just like previous pre-halving, we are given enough time to save and buy BTC as they are still very cheap and discounted.

It's probably a reminder to us from the OP, we all know that time flies so fast, and we have to take advantage of it.

benalexis12

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Quote from: Cantsay on October 11, 2023, 11:51:13 AM

Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on October 11, 2023, 11:47:43 AM

Bitcoin is 200 days to halving yesterday being the 10th day of October, 2023.

Can the exact date of bitcoin halving be known?

I remember opening a thread concerning this topic and I got to know that any date you’ll see online is purely based on predictions and no official date can be known prolly till we get very close to it.

And if you search you’ll see that there are different dates for it online, some April, October (as you have stated in your post).

No one here can provide an exact date for when it will actually occur. Remember that all of the experts' supposition is based on forecasts made by numerous indicators, and as you say, you are also using historical data to determine whether or not it is still completely reliable.

The only thing that is crucial for the approaching bitcoin halving is that you have some money saved up so that you don't lose everything on that day. This is because it's likely that the price of bitcoin will be over $40,000 when the halving begins.

Blitzboy

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Bitcoin halving: yes, it happens every four years, and, sure, it affects the reward for mining. We get it. The reduced reward means there’s a decrease in the number of new bitcoins entering circulation. A decrease in supply often means – you guessed it – potential for an increase in demand and, hence, price. So, historically speaking, yes, after halving events, Bitcoin's price has rallied.

Now, “thescalpingpro” - oh, what a name! - claims that Bitcoin is showing a similar pattern to 2019. Really? I mean, if history is any indicator, patterns tend to repeat, right? But - and this is a BIG but - past performance isnt an exact blueprint for future results. Remember, there's a pseudo-problem here: just because it happened before doesn't guarantee it’ll happen again. Especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin! Sure, the indicators like RSI, MACD, and on-balance volume might be showing particular patterns, but folks, always, ALWAYS, do your research and never blindly follow one analyst's view.

Zaguru12

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Quote from: tbct_mt2 on October 12, 2023, 09:23:47 AM

Each difficulty epoch is about 14 days, 2016 blocks and if from today till block 840,000 the Bitcoin network has many times of hashrate shocks, the estimate date of Bitcoin halving will be changed more, later than expected.

2016 blocks will trigger the difficulty adjustment but if within 2016 blocks, you have like 6 hours of longer time, you can multiply it to 10 shocks like that and the halving date will be 60 days later than estimated. If it is an issue to estimate correct halving date, it will be not a delay you like.

That’s my point, I don’t see a big variation from the current date we, like either later than 20 days or more of it. Because even if the bitcoin hashrate rate increases which with my guess wouldn’t be a significant increase with the current situation we have around energy been expensive, so I expect this current rate not to vary significantly. But should there be a change the Difficulty Epoch will address that issue.

So a variation of many days isn’t viable but we will definitely would have a variation on the current date and time but it will not be high enough.

tbct_mt2

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Quote from: Zaguru12 on October 12, 2023, 02:08:18 AM

While the hashrate plays a vital role in how the miners get the block confirmed fast. I don’t see it greatly affecting the date of this halving because of the difficulty adjustment that the bitcoin network has. Once we get to see a huge increase of hashrate and the confirmation of block gets lower like below 10 minutes (say lowest 7 minutes, because I don’t see it getting lower than that) then after a confirmation of 2016 blocks the difficulty will definitely adjust to accommodate that high hashrate and if it gets higher again it will still adjust and make it hard to get solve the puzzle that gets the block confirmed and vice verse should it get lower.

Each difficulty epoch is about 14 days, 2016 blocks and if from today till block 840,000 the Bitcoin network has many times of hashrate shocks, the estimate date of Bitcoin halving will be changed more, later than expected.

2016 blocks will trigger the difficulty adjustment but if within 2016 blocks, you have like 6 hours of longer time, you can multiply it to 10 shocks like that and the halving date will be 60 days later than estimated. If it is an issue to estimate correct halving date, it will be not a delay you like.

I don't have problem with inaccurate halving estimate date because it is not my interest. What I need is in 2024, Bitcoin block reward will be halved and it will give a Bitcoin market very good force to rise.

Zaguru12

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Quote from: philipma1957 on October 11, 2023, 11:58:06 PM

you are correct as a huge amount of hash could go online and speed it up 🆙 to march and 2024 or a huge amount of hash could go offline slowing it to May 2024.

Or the hashrate could simply go sideways and the ½ ing will be in April

While the hashrate plays a vital role in how the miners get the block confirmed fast. I don’t see it greatly affecting the date of this halving because of the difficulty adjustment that the bitcoin network has. Once we get to see a huge increase of hashrate and the confirmation of block gets lower like below 10 minutes (say lowest 7 minutes, because I don’t see it getting lower than that) then after a confirmation of 2016 blocks the difficulty will definitely adjust to accommodate that high hashrate and if it gets higher again it will still adjust and make it hard to get solve the puzzle that gets the block confirmed and vice verse should it get lower.

Also with the amount required for equipments that would get a very high hashrate and also the vast amount of miners available I don’t see pools or individual miners spending much to get a high hashrate because they will definitely want to maximize profits.

Here are is a link on how hashrate increases and how the difficulty also adjusts.

This also is a difficulty estimator that’s helps in calculating the next difficulty,

bluebit25

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Most of us are expecting positive changes in the market but I speculate that before entering a bullish period we will have a sharp decline. To be honest, before previous halving events, there were big changes in cryptocurrency values, but there were also insignificant changes. So the data we're seeing a lot can be seen as a launching pad for a new wave, although there's no accurate way to predict the exact impact of the halving on the market. Perhaps the harshness in the crypto environment recently has made us feel a lot of doubts about its future. Personally, although I also have a few doubts, my trust in Bitcoin will not change. You don't have to go through a few bull cycles to have a lot of confidence in Bitcoin. But really what I have felt in recent years is that acceptance of Bitcoin is increasing, interest in it is growing, anyway, this is one of the information that we will There is still much more discussion to be done before the halving takes place.

AprilioMP

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Quote from: SquirrelJulietGarden on October 11, 2023, 11:02:37 PM

Data is estimation and has inaccuracy, big or small differences between different websites.

1. BuyBitcoinWorldwide - 17 April, 2024
2. CoinGecko - 25 April, 2024
3. BitcoinBlockHalf - 25 April, 2024
4. Nicehash - 13 April, 2024
5. CoinmarketCap - 25 April, 2024
6. CoinWarz - 24 April 2024

According to various data from several sources providing analysis that the 2024 bitcoin halving will occur in April with different estimated dates as estimated by several of these sites.

The halving turned out to be the most important event in the bitcoin blockchain when mining rewards were cut in half¹.

As a person who is still dark in terms of analyzing things related to things that can still change, such as the Bitcoin halving and only relying on sources from other people to understand something that I have never experienced myself, I will keep it as a note about the 2024 halving that will occur in April.
But, as someone who believes in bitcoin will reach its highest price, just watch and observe every event that will occur without caring too much about the current price situation until a new high price comes.

Husires

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48,000 are possible levels because the price is currently struggling to break the $31,000 level and may do so at the beginning of next year, which means the possibility that we will close at the levels of $38,000 to $42,000 before January of next year, or $42,000 to $48,000 before March, which This means that we will be at that level between March and April, which means that during Bitcoin Halving the price at that level will be possible and will not lead to panic.

If this does not happen, it may lead to the pump failing and being limited to only $100,000.

sunsilk

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While the exact time for halving are given inaccurately as all of them are estimations, it doesn't matter to me since no matter what the speculated date it will happen, we're sure that it happens every 210,000 blocks.

The cycle does shows that every time halving's done, the demand increases as the reward for the miners decreases and cut into half.

And the most awaited thing every halving is the price increase that we usually get. As for this year, the lowest for Bitcoin's price is close to half from it is right now and with that chart shows, the skyrocketing of it is very likely and sky is the limit when it comes.

Onyeeze

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Congrats for bitcoin halving for marking 200 days, but their something I want to understand in bitcoin having because I do get a little confused in bitcoin halving, what the essence of bitcoin halving and what are the impact of Bitcoin halving for bullrun and bearish season, this two things is something I want to know properly before any other things in bitcoin, if the halving is necessary why do we still be hoping for bitcoin to be out of bearish season and jump for bullrun, this halving is it what brings bitcoin to increase, I don't know the point of everyone talking of halving and no halving.

Latviand

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on October 11, 2023, 10:31:41 PM

From what I observe on this current price level and compare it to previous Bitcoin block halvings. I am more positive that we will not see anymore new lows, maybe a very nonstable or sideways will still be there, 200 days are still long plus we are about to end the 2023 year, so we should expect the unexpected.

Even if the halving happens, we're still probably going to wait a long time for any significant pump in the prices because it was the same for the last market pump, it took bitcoin a year before it can get to a new ATH, and besides the halving we probably need another significant market move because other than halving for us to truly see another ATH but you're right, expect the unexpected.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Cantsay on October 11, 2023, 11:51:13 AM

Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on October 11, 2023, 11:47:43 AM

Bitcoin is 200 days to halving yesterday being the 10th day of October, 2023.

Can the exact date of bitcoin halving be known?

I remember opening a thread concerning this topic and I got to know that any date you’ll see online is purely based on predictions and no official date can be known prolly till we get very close to it.

And if you search you’ll see that there are different dates for it online, some April, October (as you have stated in your post).

you are correct as a huge amount of hash could go online and speed it up 🆙 to march and 2024 or a huge amount of hash could go offline slowing it to May 2024.

Or the hashrate could simply go sideways and the ½ ing will be in April

MusaMohamed

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Quote from: OgNasty on October 11, 2023, 11:39:58 PM

It is exciting to think we’re getting so close to the next halving. While it is likely that we’ll be seeing an upward swing in price leading up to the halving, it’s important to also remember that the major price peaks after the halving usually don’t take place for another 18 months, so don’t expect a massive bubble around halving time.

The last halving with Covid-19 affected Bitcoin a lot but I believe after failing to reach $100,000 in the last halving, Bitcoin will make it done in 2024 halving.

I believe $100,000 is very possible for 2024 halving because if Bitcoin breaks out from $69,000, FOMO will make it rise 30% more easily because rising 30% is seen in Bitcoin history. The challenge is only will Bitcoin touch its past all time high about $69,000?

I think it will do it.

OgNasty

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It is exciting to think we’re getting so close to the next halving. While it is likely that we’ll be seeing an upward swing in price leading up to the halving, it’s important to also remember that the major price peaks after the halving usually don’t take place for another 18 months, so don’t expect a massive bubble around halving time.

Topic: Yesterday marked 200 days to Bitcoin Halving (Read 226 times)