Topic: You can not cancel a order at Butterfly Labs - page 2. (Read 5240 times)
Hail Zerlan.
1) For the ones who bought in BTC, it's more important to b/e in BTC, so the exchange rate is secondary. Imagine how angry are those who bought in BTC when the exchange rate was 10 times lower ($6 in July 2012). They will NEVER b/e in USD, and keeping those BTC was the right choice to make.
Well, how is the exchange rate secondary? For the people you mentioned it would have been smarter to keep those bitcoins - because of the exchange rate. Also non of them will cancel their order - also because of the current exchange rate. They'd have no loss in $, but a huge loss in btc.
2) You can quite safely estimate that difficulty in July will not be over X (I say not over 60.000.000), and therefore you can calculate the amount of BTC your machine will generate in worst case scenario. The big question is not what will the difficulty be in n months, but WHEN are you going to get your BFL machine.
With n months I meant the point when one gets his machine. No one knows when this will be due to the amazing information politics of BFL.
It is a guessing game.
lets say the difficulty quadruples to 20.000.000 until July 1st. And lets say that's the date one gets his Single SC, mining 60 GH/s. You'd make ฿45.87 per month or $3.200 at an exchange rate of $70.
so the players in the game basically are
- difficulty
- exchange rate
- your fraction of the total hashpower of the network
It's not rocket science, still you have do do some estimations and some math.
the big question is what will the difficulty be in n months - if you consider all of the 900 avalons and all of bfls 60.000 chips mining. I did this calculation but the only result I remember was "I'm okay with that". Maybe someone else has the numbers.
lets say the difficulty quadruples to 20.000.000 until July 1st. And lets say that's the date one gets his Single SC, mining 60 GH/s. You'd make ฿45.87 per month or $3.200 at an exchange rate of $70.
so the players in the game basically are
- difficulty
- exchange rate
- your fraction of the total hashpower of the network
It's not rocket science, still you have do do some estimations and some math.
the big question is what will the difficulty be in n months - if you consider all of the 900 avalons and all of bfls 60.000 chips mining. I did this calculation but the only result I remember was "I'm okay with that". Maybe someone else has the numbers.
Well, I'm disagree with you on some points:
1) For the ones who bought in BTC, it's more important to b/e in BTC, so the exchange rate is secondary. Imagine how angry are those who bought in BTC when the exchange rate was 10 times lower ($6 in July 2012). They will NEVER b/e in USD, and keeping those BTC was the right choice to make.
2) You can quite safely estimate that difficulty in July will not be over X (I say not over 60.000.000), and therefore you can calculate the amount of BTC your machine will generate in worst case scenario. The big question is not what will the difficulty be in n months, but WHEN are you going to get your BFL machine.
It's possible that the answer to the big question is NEVER. So the real gamble is: when I will get my machine?
It is a guessing game.
lets say the difficulty quadruples to 20.000.000 until July 1st. And lets say that's the date one gets his Single SC, mining 60 GH/s. You'd make ฿45.87 per month or $3.200 at an exchange rate of $70.
so the players in the game basically are
- difficulty
- exchange rate
- your fraction of the total hashpower of the network
It's not rocket science, still you have do do some estimations and some math.
the big question is what will the difficulty be in n months - if you consider all of the 900 avalons and all of bfls 60.000 chips mining. I did this calculation but the only result I remember was "I'm okay with that". Maybe someone else has the numbers.
lets say the difficulty quadruples to 20.000.000 until July 1st. And lets say that's the date one gets his Single SC, mining 60 GH/s. You'd make ฿45.87 per month or $3.200 at an exchange rate of $70.
so the players in the game basically are
- difficulty
- exchange rate
- your fraction of the total hashpower of the network
It's not rocket science, still you have do do some estimations and some math.
the big question is what will the difficulty be in n months - if you consider all of the 900 avalons and all of bfls 60.000 chips mining. I did this calculation but the only result I remember was "I'm okay with that". Maybe someone else has the numbers.
That's the whole point of this exercise.
How do you mean? Personally you're in it to get rich or that Bitcoin is some kind of Pyramid scheme?
Bitcoin is an experiment in unrestrained ultra-capitalism.
+1
Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?
And addition to what was mentioned above; the difficulty rises, and will rise exponentially. But, even at a difficultly several times higher than it is now, asics will still be profitable. Just not as at such a high degree (or % profit margin) as today. Albeit BTC value is going up and will continue to rise; that margin may remain close (so % profit margin may remain true). I'm betting on the BTC value rising.
So how big is the window of opportunity after ASICs ship? Let's say you bought an ASIC a year after the first ones shipped could you still make a few yarrips? I'm not talking mega bucks. Or is it a case that they will have a very short shelf life because they've mined all the coins so fast that only the very difficult ones are left and they have to mine in pools again? I guess what I'm saying is how long is it going to take these bad boys to mine the easier coins before they hit the real hard stuff? Days, weeks??
I would do some studying on what exactly is this difficulty level. Basically it is designed to increase to ensure that a block of bitcoins is only discovered every 8-10 minutes. When the network expands in strength, the difficulty rises up to keep the block discovery at this 8-10 minute window (albeit I've seen it drop into the 7 minute range and a bit lower, but the network soon levels off). Right now we are mining 25 coin blocks. That will diminish in half in a while. As far as asic's being cost prohibitive or not in the near future; it really is a guessing game. the key is educate yourself on the in's and out's. this would be a good start to help make future projections. There are a set number of bitcoins and it will take years to discover all of them. Many theories, much math is involved as well.
Cheers man. That makes sense. I need to crack the maths behind this to better understand it.
Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?
And addition to what was mentioned above; the difficulty rises, and will rise exponentially. But, even at a difficultly several times higher than it is now, asics will still be profitable. Just not as at such a high degree (or % profit margin) as today. Albeit BTC value is going up and will continue to rise; that margin may remain close (so % profit margin may remain true). I'm betting on the BTC value rising.
So how big is the window of opportunity after ASICs ship? Let's say you bought an ASIC a year after the first ones shipped could you still make a few yarrips? I'm not talking mega bucks. Or is it a case that they will have a very short shelf life because they've mined all the coins so fast that only the very difficult ones are left and they have to mine in pools again? I guess what I'm saying is how long is it going to take these bad boys to mine the easier coins before they hit the real hard stuff? Days, weeks??
I would do some studying on what exactly is this difficulty level. Basically it is designed to increase to ensure that a block of bitcoins is only discovered every 8-10 minutes. When the network expands in strength, the difficulty rises up to keep the block discovery at this 8-10 minute window (albeit I've seen it drop into the 7 minute range and a bit lower, but the network soon levels off). Right now we are mining 25 coin blocks. That will diminish in half in a while. As far as asic's being cost prohibitive or not in the near future; it really is a guessing game. the key is educate yourself on the in's and out's. this would be a good start to help make future projections. There are a set number of bitcoins and it will take years to discover all of them. Many theories, much math is involved as well.
That's the whole point of this exercise.
How do you mean? Personally you're in it to get rich or that Bitcoin is some kind of Pyramid scheme?
Bitcoin is an experiment in unrestrained ultra-capitalism.
I guess it is. Good luck to anyone who went for it early. Seems like they took a chance and it's just about to pay off big time for them. If I had a few grand I'd be tempted to buy bitcoins right now.
That's the whole point of this exercise.
How do you mean? Personally you're in it to get rich or that Bitcoin is some kind of Pyramid scheme?
Bitcoin is an experiment in unrestrained ultra-capitalism.
That's the whole point of this exercise.
How do you mean? Personally you're in it to get rich or that Bitcoin is some kind of Pyramid scheme?
Seems like some people are going to get very rich. Not cool that the BitCoins will be distributed so unevenly
That's the whole point of this exercise.
Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?
And addition to what was mentioned above; the difficulty rises, and will rise exponentially. But, even at a difficultly several times higher than it is now, asics will still be profitable. Just not as at such a high degree (or % profit margin) as today. Albeit BTC value is going up and will continue to rise; that margin may remain close (so % profit margin may remain true). I'm betting on the BTC value rising.
So how big is the window of opportunity after ASICs ship? Let's say you bought an ASIC a year after the first ones shipped could you still make a few yarrips? I'm not talking mega bucks. Or is it a case that they will have a very short shelf life because they've mined all the coins so fast that only the very difficult ones are left and they have to mine in pools again? I guess what I'm saying is how long is it going to take these bad boys to mine the easier coins before they hit the real hard stuff? Days, weeks??
Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?
And addition to what was mentioned above; the difficulty rises, and will rise exponentially. But, even at a difficultly several times higher than it is now, asics will still be profitable. Just not as at such a high degree (or % profit margin) as today. Albeit BTC value is going up and will continue to rise; that margin may remain close (so % profit margin may remain true). I'm betting on the BTC value rising.
Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?
Because as more ASICs come online, the difficulty will rise, making it more difficult for people getting on the boat late to make their investment back.
Seems like some people are going to get very rich. Not cool that the BitCoins will be distributed so unevenly
Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?
Because as more ASICs come online, the difficulty will rise, making it more difficult for people getting on the boat late to make their investment back.
Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?
WHAT ? i can't cancel my mini-rig payed 5000BTC @ 6$ ?
Value : $350.000 today !
Whorst, no1 no one can show a picture of it functional
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibq7QFqok5A
Value : $350.000 today !
Whorst, no1 no one can show a picture of it functional
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibq7QFqok5A
Probably a scam, there's no way he can guarantee BFL will ship in 30 days, they are masters of delay!
i was thinking about that same helix 
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