Topic: You Can't Mine Bitcoin Profitably (Prove me wrong!) (Read 1009 times)

You are thinking in hard way.

Forget about the USD price, you dont need it.

Simply consider that:
Cost of hardware + cost of electricity*time / BTC production

Considering:
- 150 EH/s of hashrate growing at 145 PH/s per day.
- 144 blocks per day.
- fee reward is not included.
- 6.25 BTC block subsidy.
- 100 TH/s, one miner.
- 3250 W power consuption.
- 8000 USD cost of hardware.

This give you a graph like this:
https://imgur.com/tsA90ya

*Where Y axis is Price in USD and X axis is days passed since start of mining

When this curve will be UP related to Bitcoin price, then mining will be profitable. You can take a better pic seeing this table

https://imgur.com/LSBI7T1

*Where x is days, X is USD price and B is the amount of BTC obtained at given X value.

As you could see, mining allow you to obtain BTC at a price below to 50k for almost 10 years.

Ya don't say...

Um, that's how it works in most of the world...

Yes, getting miners for a good price is key, but at the moment miner prices are far higher than what they were when I started this thread.

I live where it gets cold in the winter, but hotter in the summer.

I can, if I don't use Compass, get the miners for a good price, and this is the thing for me - I use miners to at least partially heat my home with some creative duct work.  And my electricity rate is 0.10$/KWH... So your mmv but if you are ever faced with oil heat, the fact that you can capture heat for your own use may change everything.

All parties here are bullish, in general, on BTC. The question isn't whether mining BTC is more or less profitable than buying BTC. The opportunity cost is having any fiat to begin with. If you are already loaded up to the gills with BTC then you are measuring your ROI in terms of BTC. Spend 1BTC on a mining contract, then as long as you mine back that 1BTC, you have broken even. How BTC has performed during this time period is irrelevant.

I know, I know, I'm just saying 6.5% average monthly growth for the mid-term future is not that outrageous, it's certainly less than various historic moving averages.

Statements like 'this wont be possible' and 'where does the money come from' of course can be countered to some extent with increased inflation of fiat currencies. Like, the money comes from their money printers The more USD tanks, the more BTC rises (even though purchasing power of said Bitcoin might not increase too much).

A 6700% growth for the next two periods of 5 years means BTC would reach $2.8 million in the next 5 years and then $188 milllion in 10 years.
Of course, it won't be possible.

Also statistically, looking at peak points in the last 4 years, bitcoin has grown from 20k to 60k, that's 300% in 40 months, that's 7.5% a month.

Rather than looking at percentages, you can look at the price a thing people are may time ignoring since it's not that spectacular, Bitcoin has grown by 40k in 4 years, a similar performance over the next period would put the price at around 100k in the next 4.
This growth is just like economies work, you can have a series of 20% GDP increase in poor countries but at the economy begins to find its place in the developed world there is no room for such growth as you simply don't have resources of any kind to keep the same momentum. Where are we going to find the 60 trillion?

The thing that makes people believe it rises 6.5% per month is evidence by the past 10 years. I mean, the number is an average and I'm not even sure it's the correct number. But if you really zoom out, Bitcoin price is constantly increasing. Actually kind of linearly on the log scale, so in other terms it's increasing exponentially on the linear scale.

Bitcoin price increase in the last 5 years is 6700%, 1340% per year, or 111.66% per month. So looking back, 6.5% per month is quite conservative. But you must be prepared to possibly take a 30% or 50% loss for a few months or years, just to recoup that loss manifold in years to come. Keep in mind I don't think it's really possible to time the market, that's why I say 'be prepared...' because statistically my statement holds true from historic data, without any speculation. Short-term, nobody can guarantee 6.5%/moth, of course!

and if you purchased coin in april 2021 at 64k you are now down 30%

basically as I said I do not believe any one should compare mining to buy and hodl.  Yet people do over and over and over again.

By the way buying  an s9 for 75 bucks with a psu was doable last summer July 2020.

see how they did if they purchased it and mined and held. they whaled

If I rode correctly,

"After 3 years:

 - ROI of mining - 181%
 - ROI of purchasing BTC - 351%"

what did I do lol
Such a wast of time for me xD 

if he purchased at 60k a coin he is at 43k a coin today. so buying in april 2021 and hodl til sept 2021 he is off a lot.

oh i likeed your post so i read your other posts ? I gave you enough merits to make next rank.
keep posting away.

You leave out one big thing.  What if BTC doesn't rise 6.5% a month?  Yes, it jumped up, but what happens when it goes the other way and how does that influence your "buy" model?  Prices rise, prices fall... factor that in please.

so to visit this add 60 days of mining say .30 cents a th. or 33 a day x 60 =  1980 say 2k

my fee is ½ the coins or 1000

so i am at 4000 in coins and the gear is worth 9000

that is 13000. buying and holding is .25 x 48000 = 12000

so i am at 13000 and the buy and hold guy is at 12000

i calculated the coin value as turned to cash.

so i started with 2500 cash and got back 4000 cash a certain profit of 1500 no matter what happens.

yeah my gear can brick but no matter what I am 1500 ahead.


while the guy that purchased .25 btc and held has no certain profit since he hodl.

so if btc crashes his 12000 is at risk much as my 9000 value for the used s19pro.

I really dont like tossing buy and hodl against buy gear and mine comparisons since they are completely different animal.

so far the  buy and mine is working into a price increase from 10 k to 48k.

and i make my mined coin into cash. on a fast basis.

of course the s19 pro can brick 🧱 which may be a bigger risk than coins tanking to 16k

 

I have heard that argument before, it's simply based on the fact that mining pools operate and can operate without any regulations , license or KYC of any sort, so most mining pools won't be forced to handle information regarding their clients, so think about it this way.

A fresh block > miners, this is a single transaction which says pool xyz sent x bitcoins to abc and that's all about it, so even knowing the mining pool that created that output you can't do much with that information, unless the pool hands you the information of that miner such as their IP address, total hashrate and other addresses they might have used on the same account.

With exchanges however, since most of them involve the use of fiat money wether to buy or to sell crypto, they are subject to regulation, exchanges that require no KYC will soon be history , we saw how binance turned around recently, it's just how things are, if you own an exchange and want to operate freely worldwide you will have to obey the rules of  world (more so the U.S law).


But then, under some circumstances, regulation can get to mining pools as well, the government can even access the pool's server with court warrant, a less "democratic" government can detain the pool's owner/s' and force them to hand out those information, so mining to a pool isn't really as "private" as most people think.

With that said, there are still better and more secured ways that ensure better privacy, using a good mixer makes your coins a lot harder to track than mining to a mining pool.

Oh really?
To actually have a credible chance of mining a solo block you will need at least 30 miners, that would be around 100kw of power, getting over the fact of importing gear worth hundred of thousands on and get it pass customs, setting a farm, consuming 100 times the average us household electricity or 300 those of Germany, do you think you will get undetected?

Miners leave far more traces than a guy giving 10 bucks to a homeless guy to buy some coins at an BATM, besides, if you're mining on a pool, the moment the pool sends those coins your way they are already used or dirty, so, at what could you use them different than coins purchased for an exchange?

Except that every block mined says who found it except for the exceptionally rare lucky people who mine a block solo on their own systems, don't have it orphaned, get the reward and no one can work out 'where' the block came from - which is also rare since block distribution speed is critical to not being orphaned and thus it's usually easy for well connected node networks to see the IP of who found the block ...

There are extremely few of these such blocks ... I have a screen that tells me who mined each and every block as it is found and it's been a while since it said it didn't know ...

There is a legitimate reason for people to mine until the end of the world though and pay a little overhead compared to buying already-existing BTC:

Mining is a way to create completely new, fresh BTC with zero history, at least until the 21 million BTC network hard limit is reached.
Coins that have never moved on the blockchain, have no history and can't be traced to any exchange or other wallet.

No tax authority, third party, investigator can ever know who owns these freshly minted BTC with any amount of effort or pressuring exchanges to give out their wallet addresses.
Because there is no trail to follow at all.

Which kinds of people need these fresh BTC from new mining blocks is up for speculation, but they exist.

You are wrong :v.  If you dont have to spent money on electricity  then its profitable  for you :p prove me wrong. People cant make profit because they have to spent huge money every month on electricity

It really all depends. Yes you can trade and buy low and sell high but it’s easier said than done. With mining it is what is it.  You generate BTC daily. It’s up to you to decide when to sell whatever amount you want. Your money spend is on the machine. Once you pay it off your only upkeep is ensuring it runs and electric. It could run for another year with no issues and you only paid one amount for the setup and nothing more. You generate more every day as opposed to buying. Unless your are investing more often or DCA if it dips your 1BTC is always 1 unless you are swing trading it putting it at risk. You make a few bad trades you quickly are lower with no way to get more without putting it back at risk trading or buying more.  Once your miner is paid off the risk much lower while the profits become infinitely higher. In addition you still have the value of the miner if you choose to sell.