The future of brick-and-mortar payments is away from secure payment terminals and towards a mobile solution. The consumer should see the merchant's payment request on a device he trusts (e.g., his phone), and authorize this payment if correct (e.g., using biometrics). Credit card details could be transferred encrypted (for example using a Diffie-Hellman shared secret) or, better yet, the mobile device could sign a bitcoin transaction (without revealing its private keys). Secret keys (or card details) could be stored in a secure computing environment on new processors, safe from malware. If the merchant's payment request is signed (using some sort of certificate system) so that the user can verify that the payment is indeed going to the right entity, then we've almost got an almost ideal solution.
Apple's touch-ID combined with NFC is a great platform to begin this much-needed transition away from the archaic payment terminal. The NFC component links the mobile device with the merchant's register, and the touch ID links the individual with the mobile device. Displaying the price on the user's phone reduces the risk of fraudulent overcharges. Logistically, merchant's who already have NFC payment terminals may not require new hardware as NFC devices (including
sigsafe) are based on the ISO/IEC 14443-4 standard to ensure interoperability. Speaking with a former Versapay executive, I learned that the software running on the terminals can be update remotely (subject to extensive certification and testing). Given Apple's immense power, I'd expect that all these details are taken care of and at
t=0 numerous merchant terminals across the country will just start to work with iWallet. But this also means that in a more distant future, another software upgrade could seamlessly enable NFC bitcoin payments across the country.
I am on the fence whether this will be short/medium-term helpful or hurtful to bitcoin adoption. The payment system will attract media attention, and I'm sure Apple will do a good job of making it simple to use. But it won't address any of the problems outlined in Satoshi's white paper:
Commerce on the Internet has come to rely almost exclusively on financial institutions serving as trusted third parties to process electronic payments. While the system works well enough for most transactions, it still suffers from the inherent weaknesses of the trust based model. Completely non-reversible transactions are not really possible, since financial institutions cannot avoid mediating disputes. The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for non- reversible services. With the possibility of reversal, the need for trust spreads. Merchants must be wary of their customers, hassling them for more information than they would otherwise need. A certain percentage of fraud is accepted as unavoidable. These costs and payment uncertainties can be avoided in person by using physical currency, but no mechanism exists to make payments over a communications channel without a trusted party.
What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party.
Furthermore, the Apple hardware (touchID + NFC + secure computing) is more suited to bitcoin than the legacy payment networks, so we should be thankful that we'll have new hardware to write bitcoin apps for. Long term we are evolving to an open global payment system, and for this electronic cash is critical. This is the age of disintermediation.
I should also add that I really hope the iPhone has 2-way NFC like the Samsung phones (so the phone can act as a NFC passive target or as a NFC initiator), but I'm doubtful. It would be better for bitcoin if it's two-way NFC.