Topic: Your plan if no significant move on Bitcoin price along with the halving? - page 8. (Read 1289 times)
December 21, 2019, 08:35:16 AM
we cant assure the next possible thing to happen since after halving we cant see any changes yet it will appear after few months or it might took a year like what happen on last halving, still we cant conclude that the price moves because of halving due to lots of factors to consider.
December 21, 2019, 08:24:31 AM
- First halving, on November 2012 : Bitcoin increased from $11 to $1,100 in 2013 (one year later)
- Second halving, on July 2016 : Bitcoin increased from $600 to $20,000 in 2017 (one year later)
- Third halving, on May 2020 : Bitcoin increased from $6,000-$8,000 to $??? in 2021 (one year later)
- Second halving, on July 2016 : Bitcoin increased from $600 to $20,000 in 2017 (one year later)
- Third halving, on May 2020 : Bitcoin increased from $6,000-$8,000 to $??? in 2021 (one year later)
I don't think the moves in 2013 and 2017 were anything to do with the halving at all.
The key event of 2013 was the Cyprus crisis where they did bail-ins without warning people. Lots of people lost their savings and some businesses even lost their payroll money and couldn't pay their staff.
That led to people saying, "be your own bank, and use bitcoin, at least the govt won't be able to seize it". And worldwide, this created interest in bitcoin.
In 2017 it was China that was the reason. China has capital controls but people were able to get some money out to buy property abroad. (They'd usually buy a property in Vancouver or Sydney with a mortgage and then take money out of china each year to pay that mortgage. After 25 they'd have got their money out and hopefully made a capital gain as well).
The crackdown on that kind of thing led to people trying to get their money out via bitcoin. Especially after Xi Jingping declared himself president for life. That initial rise in the bitcoin price then got publicised everywhere and millenials in the west started buying.
In order for that sequence to repeat, we need a new story that will compel people to buy bitcoin - but I can't see where that story is going to come from.
December 21, 2019, 08:13:11 AM
Well, first I think this thread should be moved into the bitcoin speculation board.
Reply above was right, no matter what happens accumulating and holding is the best decision despite this current situation of Bitcoin price.
The fact is bitcoin price is unpredictable and no one knows about it. If the first and second block reward halving was experienced a massive pump up after a year, probably at this third one will also be expected to experience the same scenario and yeah, let us just hoping by the same situation repeatedly will happen.
Indeed, we should always be ready for what possibly happens. The risk was always there.
Reply above was right, no matter what happens accumulating and holding is the best decision despite this current situation of Bitcoin price.
The fact is bitcoin price is unpredictable and no one knows about it. If the first and second block reward halving was experienced a massive pump up after a year, probably at this third one will also be expected to experience the same scenario and yeah, let us just hoping by the same situation repeatedly will happen.
Indeed, we should always be ready for what possibly happens. The risk was always there.
December 21, 2019, 07:14:07 AM
- Disappointed and directly trade all holding Bitcoins.
- Keep holding until the next rising.
- No idea. I will think and replan later.
- Others (Write down on your reply).
- Keep holding until the next rising.
- No idea. I will think and replan later.
- Others (Write down on your reply).
Above all of this, just accumulate no matter what, if possible or just do the usual activity of buy-sell-trade.
People's preferred price target might not be reached on their expected year but isn't it better that whatever happened, bull or bear, ups and downs, we must have a decent number of BTC in our stash. If people are really optimistic about bitcoin's future, they should just focus on having more.
Yes, it might be risks to others as putting money regularly on BTC isn't a joke and a big crash can happen anytime but the moment people decided to deal with bitcoin's volatility, they should already aware of this risks.
Trust the process.
December 21, 2019, 07:05:32 AM
Based on the stock to flow ratio and bitcoin scarcity factor, I believe that in the future the value of bitcoin will be even higher than the increase in value in 2017.
The bitcoin stock to flow ratio is high because the addition of supply is relatively low compared to the amount circulating on the market. A higher ratio shows that the commodity is increasingly scarce and therefore more valuable as a store of value. After halving and decreasing the subsidy, bitcoin will be used as a store of value. When the amount of bitcoin reaches its maximum supply (21 million), the supply becomes limited even though market demand will not shrink, causing scarcity and the price will be even higher.
With the assumption above I will hold bitcoin as a long-term asset. But it is possible that I will use a small part for trading with short-term margin goals.
The bitcoin stock to flow ratio is high because the addition of supply is relatively low compared to the amount circulating on the market. A higher ratio shows that the commodity is increasingly scarce and therefore more valuable as a store of value. After halving and decreasing the subsidy, bitcoin will be used as a store of value. When the amount of bitcoin reaches its maximum supply (21 million), the supply becomes limited even though market demand will not shrink, causing scarcity and the price will be even higher.
With the assumption above I will hold bitcoin as a long-term asset. But it is possible that I will use a small part for trading with short-term margin goals.
December 21, 2019, 06:34:32 AM
Uhm replan? I mean, I should have a general idea of how BTC would move after the halving if it doesn't boom off like how we all anticipated. Determining whether BTC would actually drop off the famous coins because of this or it's actually just lazying around, feeling the sun kinda moment is something I should probably get the answer once 2021(end of it) comes. It also depends on what would actually happen in the year of the halving, aka next year. You never know, movement of BTC may actually move up its time frame, happening a little bit after a few months after the exact halving.
December 21, 2019, 04:54:17 AM
- First halving, on November 2012 : Bitcoin increased from $11 to $1,100 in 2013 (one year later)
- Second halving, on July 2016 : Bitcoin increased from $600 to $20,000 in 2017 (one year later)
- Third halving, on May 2020 : Bitcoin increased from $6,000-$8,000 to $??? in 2021 (one year later)
- Second halving, on July 2016 : Bitcoin increased from $600 to $20,000 in 2017 (one year later)
- Third halving, on May 2020 : Bitcoin increased from $6,000-$8,000 to $??? in 2021 (one year later)
We all know based on the historical data, Bitcoin should increase more than $20,000 in 2021. The first and second halving have proven significant moves on Bitcoin values. So, it makes sense if we believe that in 2021 will be another great year for Bitcoin.
However, who knows about it. No guarantee for the rising of Bitcoin value. Since Bitcoin is decentralized and no authority to have the responsibility, a bad scenario may happen to break off our expectations. So, how if there is no significant move on Bitcoin price in the upcoming halving? What is your plan as a Bitcoin holder?
- Disappointed and directly trade all holding Bitcoins.
- Keep holding until the next rising.
- No idea. I will think and replan later.
- Others (Write down on your reply).
*Sorry if this topic was already discussed before. I've used the search button and find out no result.
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