Your valuation of bitcoin in the year 2033

Tomatocage

legendary

Activity: 1554

Merit: 1222

brb keeping up with the Kardashians

Quote from: bullioner on March 06, 2013, 12:39:11 PM

Please stop being innumerate.

Do you really think the price of a durable commodity is inversely proportional to its rate of production? Reductio ad absurdum: if gold mining were to approach zero, the price of gold would approach infinity, even though the total amount of gold in the world remains the same. Please.

Please show me a block chain that DIDN'T double in value when the block reward halved. Please. Any will do.

bullioner

full member

Activity: 166

Merit: 101

Quote from: Tomatocage on March 06, 2013, 12:12:30 PM

If the block-reward halves every 210,000 blocks (or every 4 years'ish), then it will halve 5 more times by the time 2033 rolls around. History has shown (not only with Bitcoin but with alt chains as well) that when a block reward halves, supply halves, and thus the market value doubles. There's some "ramp up" of the price in the weeks preceding the halving, so it's hard to isolate the actual dollar value that will be doubled.

Please stop being innumerate.

Do you really think the price of a durable commodity is inversely proportional to its rate of production? Reductio ad absurdum: if gold mining were to approach zero, the price of gold would approach infinity, even though the total amount of gold in the world remains the same. Please.

Tomatocage

legendary

Activity: 1554

Merit: 1222

brb keeping up with the Kardashians

If the block-reward halves every 210,000 blocks (or every 4 years'ish), then it will halve 5 more times by the time 2033 rolls around. History has shown (not only with Bitcoin but with alt chains as well) that when a block reward halves, supply halves, and thus the market value doubles. There's some "ramp up" of the price in the weeks preceding the halving, so it's hard to isolate the actual dollar value that will be doubled. But if we take today's value (around $48/BTC) and double it 5 times, ignoring all other organic price fluctuations, we arrive at $1536 per Bitcoin.

josiahgarber

member

Activity: 82

Merit: 10

My guess would be somewhere around $500,000 per bitcoin or Zero.

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

Quote from: KTE on March 06, 2013, 07:08:39 AM

Look back to 1993 and think how little of what we do now you were able to predict.

nobody knew that by 2013 looking at digits on a screen would be the preferred way for most humans to earn their living

KTE

member

Activity: 69

Merit: 10

Look back to 1993 and think how little of what we do now you were able to predict.

blackreplica

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Cool story bro but you forgot to bring this back with ya (you were probably too doped up to remember but I forgive you)

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

nice story but it looks like you brought some of that legal drugs back home

sgravina

sr. member

Activity: 451

Merit: 250

I traveled to the year 2033 to get a definitive answer to the question. I met myself and asked nicely. Unfortunately I am quite the asshole in 2033. It's a side effect of time travel. Future me stole my wallet and spent it on drugs. Then called the police and accused me of insulting Connecticut. I spent a several weeks in a Connecticut dungeon until my time "Vacation" wore off and I returned home.

Nobody in the future talks about bitcoins. While imprisoned awaiting trial I watched a lot of TV. I saw no mention of bitcoins. Drugs are legal in 2033 and most TV shows revolve around drugs, preparing drugs, using drugs, buying drugs, correct drug manners, etc.. I can't explain it but most of this TV is actually quite good, and I wasn't on drugs. They don't let you have drugs in prison because it makes the torture ineffective.

My best guess is that nobody in the future knows about bitcoins. I didn't see any credit cards either. They were buying their drugs with cash, Connecticut dollars. My 2013 US dollars were accepted too, at an exchange rate of about 5:1.

No more time travel for me. I kind of wish I had looked up my children, but with all my problems I didn't think of it and future me didn't show the least bit of consideration.

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

Quote from: julius on March 06, 2013, 05:02:20 AM

Quote from: psybits on March 06, 2013, 03:27:34 AM

I think the greatest threat to Bitcoin on this kind of time scale is the emergence of quantum computing or some other method which allows the Bitcoin cryptography to be cracked. Seriously.

Well, if such computer is designed, I think Bitcoin would be the least important of our problems. The entire finantial system would be in jeopardise.

But bitcoin will be the entire financial system by then Wink

julius

member

Activity: 82

Merit: 10

Quote from: psybits on March 06, 2013, 03:27:34 AM

I think the greatest threat to Bitcoin on this kind of time scale is the emergence of quantum computing or some other method which allows the Bitcoin cryptography to be cracked. Seriously.

Well, if such computer is designed, I think Bitcoin would be the least important of our problems. The entire finantial system would be in jeopardise.

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

the day we'll see a QC prototype that is theoretically capable of cracking sha256 is the day the encryption would be upped. long before it will have any impact

drawingthesun

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1015

Quote from: blackreplica on March 06, 2013, 02:40:19 AM

Quote from: Cubic Earth on March 06, 2013, 02:33:12 AM

Already, the "All" or "Nothing" dichotomy is emerging. I went with "Nothing" because I think Bitcoin will have turned in Bitcoin 2.0 or higher by then, and this version will become a dead end fork.

It's interesting you mention Bitcoin 2.0. IMO if a new version bitcoin was to succeed, it would have to be based on it's previous version and allow some form of backwards compatibility or wealth transfer from Bitcoin 1.0, just like with USB - USB2 - USB3. In which case, it could be argued that Bitcoin would still have a value then, as opposed to 0. Unless by Bitcoin 2.0 you mean a totally new cryptocurrency like LTC now, then I would agree with your 2033 valuation though.

I guess one could argue that anyone voting for a nonzero valuation of bitcoin in 2033 is already in the 'All' crowd, as opposed to 'Nothing'. The final price they vote on (assuming it's nonzero) would probably reflect only how prevalent bitcoin would be in 2033 society

If another crypto-currency wanted to take the spotlight and move Bitcoin out the way, one of the best things would be to allow for wealth transfer. (Perhaps creating a fork of the blockchain as a type of genesis block for Bitcoin 2.0)

psybits

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1000

I think the greatest threat to Bitcoin on this kind of time scale is the emergence of quantum computing or some other method which allows the Bitcoin cryptography to be cracked. Seriously. But I suppose then you could have a hash rate which could withstand quantum computing efforts to decode it (perhaps formulated by some kind of artificial intelligence). Maybe that would be Bitcoin 2.0?

blackreplica

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: Cubic Earth on March 06, 2013, 02:55:31 AM

I don't understand that rational behind any vote between $1 and $5,000. We are talking 20 years out, people. BTC is going to either grow or die. It will not just hover at $100 indefinitely, or even $1,000 for that matter. If you think it will, please present your scenario that would support it.

Something like gold. Mostly a store of wealth, minor transactional value. Been around long enough so that it won't disappear. Isn't powerful enough to keep growing into infinity.

Cubic Earth

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1020

I don't understand that rational behind any vote between $1 and $5,000. We are talking 20 years out, people. BTC is going to either grow or die. It will not just hover at $100 indefinitely, or even $1,000 for that matter. If you think it will, please present your scenario that would support it.

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

Quote from: blackreplica on March 06, 2013, 02:40:19 AM

Unless by Bitcoin 2.0 you mean a totally new cryptocurrency like LTC now

Hm? What is totally new about LTC, I'll have to ask?

LTC is like a brandless Coke, absolutely the same thing only without brand recognition, and costs many times less.

kjlimo

legendary

Activity: 2114

Merit: 1031

Quote from: Cubic Earth on March 06, 2013, 02:33:12 AM

Already, the "All" or "Nothing" dichotomy is emerging. I went with "Nothing" because I think Bitcoin will have turned in Bitcoin 2.0 or higher by then, and this version will become a dead end fork.

Good point, you should buy some here:

https://vircurex.com/

I think PPC has the largest new thing to offer to the cryptocurrency world; however, the market hasn't switched much over yet.

Also, this is a useful link for monitoring the Market CAPs for some of the alt chains:

http://dustcoin.com/

blackreplica

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: Hyena on March 06, 2013, 02:33:45 AM

fuck I read 2013 instead of 2033 and chose 100 - 1000 Tongue

You can change your vote at anytime

blackreplica

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: Cubic Earth on March 06, 2013, 02:33:12 AM

Already, the "All" or "Nothing" dichotomy is emerging. I went with "Nothing" because I think Bitcoin will have turned in Bitcoin 2.0 or higher by then, and this version will become a dead end fork.

It's interesting you mention Bitcoin 2.0. IMO if a new version bitcoin was to succeed, it would have to be based on it's previous version and allow some form of backwards compatibility or wealth transfer from Bitcoin 1.0, just like with USB - USB2 - USB3. In which case, it could be argued that Bitcoin would still have a value then, as opposed to 0. Unless by Bitcoin 2.0 you mean a totally new cryptocurrency like LTC now, then I would agree with your 2033 valuation though.

I guess one could argue that anyone voting for a nonzero valuation of bitcoin in 2033 is already in the 'All' crowd, as opposed to 'Nothing'. The final price they vote on (assuming it's nonzero) would probably reflect only how prevalent bitcoin would be in 2033 society

Topic: Your valuation of bitcoin in the year 2033 (Read 2378 times)