Now all of us knew the winner.
Hope the best for our beloved Indonesia.
Topic: you're choose prabowo or jokowi for PRESIDENT INDONESIAN (Read 2592 times)
Confusing but interesting, can't wait the day when election comission show us real count result.
that is 5 days more or less.. and waiting for it still caused alot of unwanted dispute between people and supporter.. what is far more crazy even friends with friends becoming competitive..
I just hope what ever is our choice, we could still be together and live in peace.
Confusing but interesting, can't wait the day when election comission show us real count result.
*OOT
Jokowi? Prabowo?
*looks at my girl and*
I chose you who are being faithful waiting for me till the end of time.
Jokowi? Prabowo?
*looks at my girl and*
I chose you who are being faithful waiting for me till the end of time.
I know nothing about QC or such similar things, but this is confusing.
One more proof that indicating the survey center has been bought is stupid statement from one of chief of survey center, he said KPU could be exactly wrong if the result is not show same result with their QC result.
One more proof that indicating the survey center has been bought is stupid statement from one of chief of survey center, he said KPU could be exactly wrong if the result is not show same result with their QC result.
Many people who are in the media did not learn statistic or they did not understand it and cause more confusion when they reported.
2 things that I want to clarify, from a scientist point of view :
1. Does it matter if I spend more money ?
May not matter. It is useless, if the sample is not random. But of course it is not cheap to get the true, unbiased samples.
2. Does it matter if I use more samples ?
May not matter. It is useless, if the sample is not random. But of course there is a minimum sample size to get an accurate prediction.
So the first thing and most important is whether the sample is random. It is difficult to get random sampling. My professor always very critical on the way we choose our sample.
I don't understand why there is a debate on the amount of money spent, the number of samples.
2 things that I want to clarify, from a scientist point of view :
1. Does it matter if I spend more money ?
May not matter. It is useless, if the sample is not random. But of course it is not cheap to get the true, unbiased samples.
2. Does it matter if I use more samples ?
May not matter. It is useless, if the sample is not random. But of course there is a minimum sample size to get an accurate prediction.
So the first thing and most important is whether the sample is random. It is difficult to get random sampling. My professor always very critical on the way we choose our sample.
I don't understand why there is a debate on the amount of money spent, the number of samples.
Now both of them claimed their winning based on different quick count result. Have you ever think those survey centers has been bought by the candidates?
I have no opinion on whether any survey centers was paid because I have no idea and no proof.
I am neither pro-Prabowo nor pro-Jokowi.
I did not vote for Jokowi in Jakarta election 2012. I voted for an independent candidate.
I believe all politicians all liars. Some are bigger liar than others.
I am not anti-Prabowo too. I am just anti-government.
Both camps did not want to disclose who will be the ministers so I can't make up my mind based on that but I don't like the current information minister.
I am anti-FPI as they are using physical violence.
What I checked was that there is 1 survey center that did quite a good job in their method. And statistically speaking, I dared to bet based on this statistic.
I am not going to mention which one. I am not working for any center or affiliated. I used to work in Insurance company as Actuary. Now I am running 2 business of my own. None of them are affected by whoever winning.
So my prediction just base on the statistics.
Now both of them claimed their winning based on different quick count result. Have you ever think those survey centers has been bought by the candidates?
Nope. That's why I dare to bet.
I studied statistics in my university, I majored in Actuarial science, I knew who did the correct way and who did not.
Anyway, 5-6% is quite big. It's not easy to manipulate. It is even more difficult considering the rather high turn out.
This one is answered by my conviction to bet.
Now both of them claimed their winning based on different quick count result. Have you ever think those survey centers has been bought by the candidates?
both of quick count surveyor is owned by both successful teamthat's why they support and made their own president candidate become quick count winner
just wait the results from KPU (election commission)
Nope. That's why I dare to bet.
I studied statistics in my university, I majored in Actuarial science, I knew who did the correct way and who did not.
Anyway, 5-6% is quite big. It's not easy to manipulate. It is even more difficult considering the rather high turn out.
idk how quick count method can give accurate results if quick count samples is based on 4000 TPS (polling station)?I studied statistics in my university, I majored in Actuarial science, I knew who did the correct way and who did not.
Anyway, 5-6% is quite big. It's not easy to manipulate. It is even more difficult considering the rather high turn out.
there are more than 300k TPS around indonesia, how accurate 4000 samples from 300k samples?
That's why you need to learn statistics. Please try to learn. Scientists using statistics to check the safety of many things, like millions of food produced. Population size(or the total number of things, like maybe if you are food company producing billions of packed food) can be more than a few hunded million, much bigger than total number of Indonesian voter eligible.
When scientists checked the food company, of course they will use random sample. If sample is truly random, any 2000 samples can give 1% of margin error with 95% confidence. It does not matter the population size of 1 million or 1 billion.
So please try to learn statistics before commenting. Try to ask a professor who knows law of large number. Or learn from scientists who have real working experience working in a lab.
Now both of them claimed their winning based on different quick count result. Have you ever think those survey centers has been bought by the candidates?
both of quick count surveyor is owned by both successful teamthat's why they support and made their own president candidate become quick count winner
just wait the results from KPU (election commission)
Nope. That's why I dare to bet.
I studied statistics in my university, I majored in Actuarial science, I knew who did the correct way and who did not.
Anyway, 5-6% is quite big. It's not easy to manipulate. It is even more difficult considering the rather high turn out.
idk how quick count method can give accurate results if quick count samples is based on 4000 TPS (polling station)?I studied statistics in my university, I majored in Actuarial science, I knew who did the correct way and who did not.
Anyway, 5-6% is quite big. It's not easy to manipulate. It is even more difficult considering the rather high turn out.
there are more than 300k TPS around indonesia, how accurate 4000 samples from 300k samples?
Now both of them claimed their winning based on different quick count result. Have you ever think those survey centers has been bought by the candidates?
Nope. That's why I dare to bet.
I studied statistics in my university, I majored in Actuarial science, I knew who did the correct way and who did not.
Anyway, 5-6% is quite big. It's not easy to manipulate. It is even more difficult considering the rather high turn out.
Now both of them claimed their winning based on different quick count result. Have you ever think those survey centers has been bought by the candidates?
Nope. That's why I dare to bet.
I studied statistics in my university, I majored in Actuarial science, I knew who did the correct way and who did not.
Anyway, 5-6% is quite big. It's not easy to manipulate. It is even more difficult considering the rather high turn out.
Now both of them claimed their winning based on different quick count result. Have you ever think those survey centers has been bought by the candidates?
which candidate accept bitcoin for donation ?
you can send it to me instead.. loli vote for prabowo for the next president election, he's doing better than jokowi in many ways, like communication skill in english as we need it in our international relationship with other countries. Jokowi is also good candidadte, but i am affraid of his supporting party will take control over him too much, you know what i mean
I dare to bet 0.1 BTC for Jokowi win.
If Prabowo coalition wins, and PKS minister gets to be information minister again, more blocks on website. They are crazy, I don't mind blocking pornography, but they blocked Oanda, myfxbook. Next they might block bitcointalk.org, btc-e and who knows what.
if they blocked it, just try to find a way to unblock it
it's very simple anyway, just need to search and learn
Of course. I use my private server. There are other ways but internet access speed becomes slower.
Freedom in internet is like human rights now. Don't try to violate my rights.
which candidate accept bitcoin for donation ?
you can send it to me instead.. loli vote for prabowo for the next president election, he's doing better than jokowi in many ways, like communication skill in english as we need it in our international relationship with other countries. Jokowi is also good candidadte, but i am affraid of his supporting party will take control over him too much, you know what i mean
I dare to bet 0.1 BTC for Jokowi win.
If Prabowo coalition wins, and PKS minister gets to be information minister again, more blocks on website. They are crazy, I don't mind blocking pornography, but they blocked Oanda, myfxbook. Next they might block bitcointalk.org, btc-e and who knows what.
if they blocked it, just try to find a way to unblock it
it's very simple anyway, just need to search and learn
which candidate accept bitcoin for donation ?
you can send it to me instead.. loli vote for prabowo for the next president election, he's doing better than jokowi in many ways, like communication skill in english as we need it in our international relationship with other countries. Jokowi is also good candidadte, but i am affraid of his supporting party will take control over him too much, you know what i mean
I dare to bet 0.1 BTC for Jokowi win.
If Prabowo coalition wins, and PKS minister gets to be information minister again, more blocks on website. They are crazy, I don't mind blocking pornography, but they blocked Oanda, myfxbook. Next they might block bitcointalk.org, btc-e and who knows what.
I will up my bet to 0.5 BTC if I lose, I don't mind receiving just 0.1BTC if I win
Anyone dares to take up the offer ?
which candidate accept bitcoin for donation ?
you can send it to me instead.. loli vote for prabowo for the next president election, he's doing better than jokowi in many ways, like communication skill in english as we need it in our international relationship with other countries. Jokowi is also good candidadte, but i am affraid of his supporting party will take control over him too much, you know what i mean
I dare to bet 0.1 BTC for Jokowi win.
If Prabowo coalition wins, and PKS minister gets to be information minister again, more blocks on website. They are crazy, I don't mind blocking pornography, but they blocked Oanda, myfxbook. Next they might block bitcointalk.org, btc-e and who knows what.
PRABOWO for Indonesia.
I thought J0k0wi is liar...
I thought J0k0wi is liar...
You think Prabowo is not liar ? He is a bigger liar.
Anyway, I am anti-government, all government, anywhere in the world, that's why I support cryptocurrency.
Selamatkan Indonesia ? Kalau ga kepilih, mereka akan bilang, bukan urusan gue untuk selamatkan Indonesia.
One thing that I have seen in my own eyes that Indonesian bureaucracy has done well is the Kartu Jakarta Sehat by Jokowi. 2 workers in my company was sick recently, one goes to Jakarta hospital with kartu Jakarta sehat, the other went back to his kampong and goes to the hospital.
The one in Jakarta recovered in 4 days, paid less than Rp 100 000, the one in kampong spent over Rp 2 000 000 for 4 days, still sick.
i choose JOKOWI he is a good person 
PRABOWO is good, but when he have so many coalition it will be like SBY era. nothing change.
PRABOWO is good, but when he have so many coalition it will be like SBY era. nothing change.
PRABOWO for Indonesia.
I thought J0k0wi is liar...
I thought J0k0wi is liar...
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