Yup, still feeling bearish. | Bitcointalksearch.org

rpietila

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Fast forward a few months, "bubble 2.0" may just look like a large correction to the consistent underlying bullish trend for the past year.

Yeah. I was surprised to see a weekly negative Shocked

It really took a second leg down, something which I didn't anticipate. Shocked

That we are currently behind a whole 19 days of gains, boggles me. Shocked

To score a monthly negative, we would need to close below $95 in the end of this month. That would be a possible hint that a bear market (or even a correction/consolidation period) has indeed commenced.

$95 in 10 days. Not impossible, but a rather slim chance. I'd give 25-30% for that happening.

If not, then good bye with your bear market, ~~suckers~~ you uninformed

You'll have plenty of time to wise up, buy back, and still become filthy rich. The Bitcoin Bull is not going to the moon overnight, but it will certainly dilute you out of the bulk of your holdings if you try to trade it meanwhile with inappropriate information.

mp420

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If the price bottoms above the June 2011 high, it is a very bullish signal.

In June 2011, after the peak, many (maybe even most) people thought the trend change was just a temporary glitch in the rally and we'd soon be above the previous high. I'm seeing a similar pattern now. The optimism only started to wane when the price dropped below $10.

johnniewalker

legendary

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Quote from: evolve on April 17, 2013, 03:04:35 PM

Yeah, bitcoin is well on its way to mainstream acceptance...In fact, I was going to buy ~~gas~~, ~~groceries,~~ ~~rent,~~ ~~car payment,~~ ~~any basic neccesity of life~~, drugs, porn, and trinkets with my BTC today! I guess, I'll just hold onto them though, because the price can only go up,uP,UP! Roll Eyes

Dont fool yourself, this price is only justified by rampant speculation, not because metart or whoever decided to accept BTC.

+1 cause you made me laugh, not getting into speculation debates

Kazu

full member

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Rampion on April 19, 2013, 10:20:48 AM

This does not mean we are NOT in a bear market: we are clearly in a bear market. I think the mindset changed for a lot of people: before the crash it was "let's hold to see where it gets". Now its more something like "let's see how soon it arrives to $130 so I can sell". I say $130 but it can be $150 or $160, that point is different for everyone, but I think its clear the mindset changed a lot.

Can you provide factual evidence for the bolded part? Or is this more of a gut feeling? To me it doesn't seem like we can say that we are in a bear market yet, this could easily be a bear trap. Or we could have sideways consolidation for a while. Yes, if the downward trend solidifies over the next few weeks, I think that would paint more a clear picture.

EDIT: I think this graph gives good perspective.

Fast forward a few months, "bubble 2.0" may just look like a large correction to the consistent underlying bullish trend for the past year.

If this graph is supposed to look bearish, then you did a pretty bad job.
If this graph is supposed to induce a great WTF feeling, then you did a pretty good job.

Rampion

legendary

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Quote from: wobber on April 19, 2013, 10:15:07 AM

Quote from: Logik on April 19, 2013, 10:13:46 AM

Think about all the people who bought from ~150 to the ATH - what are they going to do now? Sell as soon as they can, imo. If they were sophisticated enough to hold then they probably wouldn't have bought in at those prices in the first place.

Many sold ad 50-70. And sold lots of coins.

This is true. We have ATH volume the last days. Just a couple of days +500k coins dumped, volume was even higher than in the first bubble. I don't think there are so many who have a significant amount of coins willing to dump - they already did.

This does not mean we are NOT in a bear market: we are clearly in a bear market. I think the mindset changed for a lot of people: before the crash it was "let's hold to see where it gets". Now its more something like "let's see how soon it arrives to $130 so I can sell". I say $130 but it can be $150 or $160, that point is different for everyone, but I think its clear the mindset changed a lot.

wobber

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Quote from: Logik on April 19, 2013, 10:13:46 AM

Think about all the people who bought from ~150 to the ATH - what are they going to do now? Sell as soon as they can, imo. If they were sophisticated enough to hold then they probably wouldn't have bought in at those prices in the first place.

Many sold ad 50-70. And sold lots of coins.

Logik

sr. member

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Think about all the people who bought from ~150 to the ATH - what are they going to do now? Sell as soon as they can, imo. If they were sophisticated enough to hold then they probably wouldn't have bought in at those prices in the first place.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

Yup. I dont think we will be hitting or surpassing the old ATH, for a good long time. We will probably get fairly close though, and likely within a couple days.

However, at the first sign of another crash, people will be abandoning ship en masse, only this time it'll be faster and harder. Within a few weeks the volatility swung from <15% to 20% to 50% at the time of the crash...I wouldnt be surprised to see a 70%-75% drop in value this time (and if we get that low, we wont be recovering for a while).

Manticore

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Quote from: BrightAnarchist on April 19, 2013, 04:27:31 AM

Quote from: evolve on April 19, 2013, 01:23:44 AM

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.

...what could possibly go wrong?

Bear market rally

If it was a new bull, nobody woud be euphoric about it

That's why bulls climb a wall of worry, and bears slide down a slope of hope

Surprising how fast the euphoria returns.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

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Quote from: BrightAnarchist on April 19, 2013, 04:27:31 AM

Bear market rally

If it was a new bull, nobody woud be euphoric about it

That's why bulls climb a wall of worry, and bears slide down a slope of hope

Yeah, I am one of the bulls here and I'm going to short that sucker. No euphoria, thank you. It's a bear market rally.

Zaih

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Just chuck it in Cool

BrightAnarchist

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Quote from: evolve on April 19, 2013, 01:23:44 AM

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.

...what could possibly go wrong?

Bear market rally

If it was a new bull, nobody woud be euphoric about it

That's why bulls climb a wall of worry, and bears slide down a slope of hope

Photonfrog

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Its worth to keep in mind that anyone who invests in better infrastructure tech for bitcoins will do so with the ambition to get a solid ROI. This return will come from trading volume measured in fiat.

This type of project is a big investment, so before we can expect better infrastructure we need to see a much higher BTC price, or people will need to increase the frequency of trading by magnitudes. While the price is low the best we can hope for is small incremental improvements and that will take its time to make a noticeable change.

Low BTC price leads to bad infrastructure

High BTC price leads to good infrastructure

These relationships have a direction. Anyone building a good infrastructure now will possibly influence the BTC price a bit but not as reliably as a high BTC price will lead to a better IF.

mp420

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I think the price might just touch $150 before correcting back down.

BTC Books

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Well, for what it's worth, here's my fearless prediction:

We'll break $250 within a week from today. $300 by the following Monday or Tuesday. The next weekend there will be a very steep drop down to around $150 or so. All followed by a much slower but steady rise after that.

Why?

Because I don't think the very few big players who are pushing the price care that much about what bitcoin is costing them. They want the coin - and price, as they say, is no object. This is long-term thinking by people who are putting relatively small amounts of money into bitcoin: relative, that is, to their more conventional investments.

So they need to move quickly by pushing the price up as much as possible - because there is a lot of lingering regret in some long-term holders: "Shit! I coulda sold a thousand for a quarter mil! Goddammit! I will NOT let that go by again!"

The quicker the price gets pushed back up, the fresher those regretful memories will be. And the more bitcoin these top players will be able to shake loose.

The steep drop afterwards will be for the benefit of the weak-hand holders who get scared that the 'crashes' are too close together and "Oh Crap! Maybe evolve is right."

I'm probably wrong. I'm hopeless at trading, myself. But WTF - that's what I'm thinking.

Hello bears. Tongue

Let's see what happens...

Hfleer

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Changing avatars is currently not possible.

Quote from: evolve on April 17, 2013, 02:48:44 PM

Investor confidence seems to be back on the rise, and some people are saying the bottom is in...I don't buy it for a second; I think its just the calm before the storm.

However, if I am wrong, and we start to bubble up again, I think the results will be catastrophic.

Neither situation is good for BTC, IMO...but I think another bubble would be much worse.

Good luck with that.

Frozenlock

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Activity: 434

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Quote from: evolve on April 19, 2013, 01:23:44 AM

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.
...what could possibly go wrong?

Everything! Isn't it exciting?! Grin

fitty

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Quote from: evolve on April 19, 2013, 01:23:44 AM

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.

...what could possibly go wrong?

Bear? Is that you? Stop it!

evolve

hero member

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daytrader/superhero

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.

...what could possibly go wrong?

Manticore

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

See, the media pump is on. Western Union/MoneyGram simply mention 'Bitcoin' and BTC it goes haywire.

MoneyGram's senior vice president of U.S. and Canada says, "But we've not committed and don't have any imminent plans to announce anything."

This is a rehash of old Western Union news. They mentioned this over a month ago. They basically repeated the same thing in a new interview and apparently it's a whole new world for Bitcoin.

Topic: Yup, still feeling bearish. (Read 8881 times)