make or break nightowls...what will it be?
busted.
edit
weekend....
Topic: zero hour for the downtrend (Read 2643 times)
make or break nightowls...what will it be?
busted.
edit
weekend....
make or break nightowls...what will it be?
busted.
All Hail Eris!
Whoever just cleared the last of my old sells at $6.50 has my gratitude. Of course, if it hits $7 before it hits $6 from here, I'll wish I hadn't said anything publicly.
Kudos for patience. I sold another batch too low, frankly I didn't believe they would rally this high, especially not right away.
@Thread:
Are trends some kind of new religion? Why should the trading price over time be aligned to straight lines, and even if they are at times, why should it have some special meaning?
Support and Resistance.
That is basically an un-tested hypothesis... Have you ever done a Bayesian analysis of the probability for breaking a trend? I assure you, it is not uniform along the trend. And a straight line does not inform you of that probability... It's just a 'totem'.
All I'm saying is, I see buying and selling trends that are supported by Support and Resistance lines.
Traders are creatures of habit, they tend to repeat their actions and the support and resistance lines point that way.
My criticism of trends is not exactly that they are meaningless, but that they are meaningless in isolation. It is the superstitious treatment of trends that I object to. So often someone will just throw up a chart with a trend or a triangle and just say up/down... But there are many such inferences that can be drawn with nothing to support why one or the other should be more 'correct'. What is worse is when they are randomly correct and use the experience to build on a complex but unsubstantiated rule set that produces more random results et cetera...
I understand what you're saying, I view these as lowest common denominator indicators, nothing more.
they are often good predictors of action
direction is, of course, always murky
direction is, of course, always murky
I see your Kelly Criterion and raise you a Proebsting's paradox. 
I see your paradox and inaugurate you as a genuine and authorized Pope of Discordia.
Is that a religious conflict with the Church of Sub Genius now?
haha, sorry, just realized Bob is the church of the sub main guy... 
Thought so, just checking!
Thought so, just checking!
must have slack
Chodpada, your a fan of the church of the sub genius yes ?
Whoever just cleared the last of my old sells at $6.50 has my gratitude. Of course, if it hits $7 before it hits $6 from here, I'll wish I hadn't said anything publicly.
Kudos for patience. I sold another batch too low, frankly I didn't believe they would rally this high, especially not right away.
@Thread:
Are trends some kind of new religion? Why should the trading price over time be aligned to straight lines, and even if they are at times, why should it have some special meaning?
Support and Resistance.
That is basically an un-tested hypothesis... Have you ever done a Bayesian analysis of the probability for breaking a trend? I assure you, it is not uniform along the trend. And a straight line does not inform you of that probability... It's just a 'totem'.
All I'm saying is, I see buying and selling trends that are supported by Support and Resistance lines.
Traders are creatures of habit, they tend to repeat their actions and the support and resistance lines point that way.
Support and Resistance.
The trend lines I see drawn here are too extreme to be a level of some stable market equilibrium. It would be psychological reverse-engineering at best.
But this is a double-edged sword. It will skew the probability distribution of short-term price, which may give a better-than-50% chance to guess right, but much more punishment if one guesses wrong. Kind of like the margin trading of predictions. Gets especially interesting when used in margin trading for maximum short-time profits but heavy risk.
Have you ever done a Bayesian analysis of the probability for breaking a trend? I assure you, it is not uniform along the trend. And a straight line does not inform you of that probability... It's just a 'totem'.
It's skew. Third moment, no? Expectation value is current equilibrium price (first moment), variance is related to volatility (second moment) and skew is related to an ongoing trend (third moment). You can disassemble a situation into these three (and the higher ones if you feel like being cool).
With that, trends would be allowed to exist without allowing to profit off them in average, apart from risk analysis à la Kelly Criterion.
Whoever just cleared the last of my old sells at $6.50 has my gratitude. Of course, if it hits $7 before it hits $6 from here, I'll wish I hadn't said anything publicly.
Kudos for patience. I sold another batch too low, frankly I didn't believe they would rally this high, especially not right away.
@Thread:
Are trends some kind of new religion? Why should the trading price over time be aligned to straight lines, and even if they are at times, why should it have some special meaning?
Support and Resistance.
Trends, walls, triangles... You might as well put your faith in Bob!
+1 Trend lines are drawing to reinforce the trend drawers opinion... plain and simple..
I could draw a million different trend lines for any opinion...
I could draw a million different trend lines for any opinion...
It's how often the predictions are correct is what counts.
Whoever just cleared the last of my old sells at $6.50 has my gratitude. Of course, if it hits $7 before it hits $6 from here, I'll wish I hadn't said anything publicly.
Kudos for patience. I sold another batch too low, frankly I didn't believe they would rally this high, especially not right away.
@Thread:
Are trends some kind of new religion? Why should the trading price over time be aligned to straight lines, and even if they are at times, why should it have some special meaning?
Much of it is self-fulfilling - but I think there is a grain of objective phenomena in them - if you want to buy and you see the price climbing you try to adjust your offer and people do that adjustment as if the price was moving linearly.
Trend lines are drawn to reinforce the trend drawers opinion... plain and simple..
I could draw a million different trend lines for any opinion...
I could draw a million different trend lines for any opinion...
@Thread:
Are trends some kind of new religion? Why should the trading price over time be aligned to straight lines, and even if they are at times, why should it have some special meaning?
Are trends some kind of new religion? Why should the trading price over time be aligned to straight lines, and even if they are at times, why should it have some special meaning?
if everyone believes in them they become self-fulfilling prophecies, of course market adjusts and takes turns when confidence on a direction is overwhelmed.
Whoever just cleared the last of my old sells at $6.50 has my gratitude. Of course, if it hits $7 before it hits $6 from here, I'll wish I hadn't said anything publicly.
Kudos for patience. I sold another batch too low, frankly I didn't believe they would rally this high, especially not right away.
@Thread:
Are trends some kind of new religion? Why should the trading price over time be aligned to straight lines, and even if they are at times, why should it have some special meaning?
Wow, someone sold 288btc and that 5k wall disappeared, probably another fake bitcoinica position.
There's a big red bar around 5k large showing in clarkmoody, at around 8.00, so my guess is it was sold into.
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