Will the jackpot % win rate scale to my bet or is it a static % and caps at 20BTC? Because if it's the latter that means the max bet is 2000 bits which is way too small. But if it's the former and larger bets have a higher % of hitting the 20BTC jackpot that's way better.
I am very interested in your opinions about the math and chances of this JP cause we also want to add a JP to our sweeper
but we have a bit of headache as user @Bunt said > every click is a new bet so lets try to do the math
one bet the HE is 2%
https://www.moneypot.com/bets/640070101and the probability is 0.00007997732609510422% translated in chance to hit the JP is 1 in 1 250 354 bets
the payout is wager x 10 000
another one is 0.52% HE
https://www.moneypot.com/bets/640069650and the probability is 0.0000476837158203125% translated in chance to hit the JP is 1 in 2 097 152 bets
and the payout is wager x 10 000
another one is 0.20% HE
https://www.moneypot.com/bets/640070136and the probability is 0.00007997732609510422% translated in chance to hit the JP is 1 in 1 250 354 bets
and the payout is wager x 10 000
payout is always wager x 10 000
please help me to understand why the 0.52% HE and 0.20% HE bets are accepted by MP (regarding the JP)
the 2% HE sounds fine to me
but if each click is a new bet then I dont understand that the 0.52% HE and 0.20% HE bets are accepted by MP and MP would pay wager x 10 000
what did I miss here cause I thought only +EV bets are accepted by MP/Investors? and thankful to everyone who can explain
thx
That's a good question. I haven't looked into it in depth but I'd guess it might have something to do with rounding to two decimal places.
The 0.2% house edge bet is still +ev for MP and the investors. The theoretical return on those rates & percentages yields ~1.205134 bits, and the bet was 1.21 bits. The player still pays a relatively high total house edge, since they are repeatedly gambling the wager and payout if they use the same board.
You're correct in the bet being +ev for MP/investors, but incorrect as far as how much theoretically. You're looking at the results (the bet lost) and assuming it's theoretical, but it's not, it's just what happened that specific time. Theoretically, the player loses .2% of that bet every time he bets. .2% of 1.21 is .00242. The player also wouldn't pay a "relatively high total house edge" because every bet is independent of each other. Yes, if someone keeps clicking boxes they have a higher chance of losing their initial bet, but you can say that about any gambling game ever.