AsicMiner testing an 0.25 W/GH board.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9794133
Topic: . - page 2. (Read 24722 times)
Here's my take.
The Math: (extract from an internal report)
• First difficult y drop seen in 2 years occurred 2 Dec 2014
• Over the next 85 weeks (21 months) a total of 2.1 million Bitcoins will be mined
• USD $735 million at $350/BTC, $1 billion at $500/BTC, >$2 billion at $1000/BTC
• 280 MW estimated Bitcoin network size today (compared to Google's estimated 260 MW, Facebook 78 MW)
• Block reward halving ETA July 2016 (85 weeks, 5 days as of today)
• Bitcoin output from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC per block (next halving estimated 2020)
Historical Bitcoin Network Data:
Nov/Dec 2014 (today):
Hashrate: 290 PH/s (+35%)
Total Megawatt: 280 MW (home mining almost gone)
Megawatt Industrial/Data Center: 270 MW (+35% 0.85W/GH new capacity)
August 2014:
Hashrate: 214 PH/s (+375% or 94%/month)
Total Megawatt: 214 MW
Megawatt Industrial/Data Center: 200 MW (>1000-2000%)
April 2014:
Hashrate: 57 PH/s
Total Megawatt: 250-500 MW (mostly at home miners)
Megawatt Industrial/Data Center: 10-20 MW
Bitcoiners are in fact the first ones to heat complete greenhouses.
The Math: (extract from an internal report)
• First difficult y drop seen in 2 years occurred 2 Dec 2014
• Over the next 85 weeks (21 months) a total of 2.1 million Bitcoins will be mined
• USD $735 million at $350/BTC, $1 billion at $500/BTC, >$2 billion at $1000/BTC
• 280 MW estimated Bitcoin network size today (compared to Google's estimated 260 MW, Facebook 78 MW)
• Block reward halving ETA July 2016 (85 weeks, 5 days as of today)
• Bitcoin output from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC per block (next halving estimated 2020)
Historical Bitcoin Network Data:
Nov/Dec 2014 (today):
Hashrate: 290 PH/s (+35%)
Total Megawatt: 280 MW (home mining almost gone)
Megawatt Industrial/Data Center: 270 MW (+35% 0.85W/GH new capacity)
August 2014:
Hashrate: 214 PH/s (+375% or 94%/month)
Total Megawatt: 214 MW
Megawatt Industrial/Data Center: 200 MW (>1000-2000%)
April 2014:
Hashrate: 57 PH/s
Total Megawatt: 250-500 MW (mostly at home miners)
Megawatt Industrial/Data Center: 10-20 MW
If only we could conduct the heat generated by big ass miners into tubes that would deliver free calefaction for people, bitcoin would be something even greater.
Bitcoiners are in fact the first ones to heat complete greenhouses.
Soooo ...
For the first time since the beginning of the ASIC era the difficulty has dropped today.
It is not a large drop, the network has lost "only" something like 2,000,000 GH/s since the last adjustment. It may not look impressive today but you have to remember that it was the whole network hashrate as of october 2013, a bit more that one year ago, just before the beginning of the last "bubble".
It also means that more miners have left than miners have join the network. The only reason a miner leaves the network is that he thinks the coins he gets are worth less than the money he spends to get them.
For the first time since the beginning of the ASIC era the difficulty has dropped today.
It is not a large drop, the network has lost "only" something like 2,000,000 GH/s since the last adjustment. It may not look impressive today but you have to remember that it was the whole network hashrate as of october 2013, a bit more that one year ago, just before the beginning of the last "bubble".
It also means that more miners have left than miners have join the network. The only reason a miner leaves the network is that he thinks the coins he gets are worth less than the money he spends to get them.
But that just happened last two weeks. It will keep on rising in the (near) future.
So you would need 0.038 of these high output Nuclear Power Plants to power the Bitcoin network. That is fucking mind boggling!
One more fix needed I think 
I was just wondering how much power the bitcoin network was consuming and ran some numbers myself:
Let's assume everyone mining bitcoin was running Antminer S3s or at least a equally efficient rig(which we all know isn't the case) and just to make things a little easier well say the S3 runs at 500Ghs and consumes 350W
Right now were up to 214PHs on bitcoin so thats 428000 of these S3s consuming 350W each so 149,800,000 Watts
Now I found this: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=104&t=3
"The Palo Verde plant in Arizona has three reactors with the largest combined generating capacity1 of about 3,937 megawatts (MW)."
Which I assume comes out to 3,937,000 Watts
So you would need 38 of these high output Nuclear Power Plants to power the Bitcoin network. That is fucking mind boggling!
Let's assume everyone mining bitcoin was running Antminer S3s or at least a equally efficient rig(which we all know isn't the case) and just to make things a little easier well say the S3 runs at 500Ghs and consumes 350W
Right now were up to 214PHs on bitcoin so thats 428000 of these S3s consuming 350W each so 149,800,000 Watts
Now I found this: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=104&t=3
"The Palo Verde plant in Arizona has three reactors with the largest combined generating capacity1 of about 3,937 megawatts (MW)."
Which I assume comes out to 3,937,000 Watts
So you would need 38 of these high output Nuclear Power Plants to power the Bitcoin network. That is fucking mind boggling!
I think one way to slow the growth is reduce the block reward from 25 coins to just 1 coin per block, there is no way the BTC price will jump 25 fold to compensate as more then half the coins are already mined so there is no shortage of supply, and no reason for that much fiat to enter the market.
The block subsidy will be reduced to under 1BTC. Great minds, yours and Satoshis, do think alike. 
Bitcoin is completely totally useless if you intend to use it to transport electricity. You can burn as much electricity as you want where it is cheap, it will not give you a single milliwatt where it is needed.
That seems correct but work has been done. Cotton notes are not able to save or give energy either but they can convey work. That work can be used in exchange for energy elsewhere and btc will do this also.
The second argument is btc work useful or not, its describing secure and unique hash codes. The world has found some use for btc in security and so energy spent is useful and can be used in one place and then elsewhere the btc can be reused to pay for energy just like notes are.
Im not saying btc has to be valued by all and Im not sure any energy company takes btc as direct payment, probably not but in effect btc is conveying energy or if you prefer, work
Places like lakes in the Himalayas have massive amounts of free power available for relatively low investment costs but its too hard to transmit the power to anywhere useful. In those cases bitcoin mining is one of the best ways to make use of that power but the hashrate would need to stabilise first, the risk is too high for that kind of investment while its rising exponentially.
It does seem viable that places with excess energy will be connected to the internet more easily then they can transport large amounts of electricity ? If that is the case, btc is being useful to convey work/energy usage ?
Here is an article from end of last year on the this topic:
The Power Consumption of the Bitcoin Network:
Are we destroying the planet?
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Lb_iLMmH5sIiYfGeHr9tCTnaoWjK25zDlvO0nXXgEng/edit
6 Months old and already totally outdated though ;-)
Original thread is here (the author is Xyver):
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-power-consumption-and-future-difficulty-381518
The Power Consumption of the Bitcoin Network:
Are we destroying the planet?
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Lb_iLMmH5sIiYfGeHr9tCTnaoWjK25zDlvO0nXXgEng/edit
6 Months old and already totally outdated though ;-)
Original thread is here (the author is Xyver):
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-power-consumption-and-future-difficulty-381518
There's some off topic there but I wouldn't consider the energy production methods to be off topic, we've been discussing alternative use cases for remote areas with easily accessible renewable energy and so far Bitcoin mining is the ideal transportation method.
You can have this thread.A new thread specifically discussing estimating the power consumption of the Bitcoin network is here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/estimating-the-energypower-consumption-of-the-bitcoin-network-694401
All off topic. This thread is about energy consumption of the Bitcoin Network. You should go start your own thread discussing how you think energy should or should not be produced.
Thanks.
No worries, we can just let this thread die then.Thanks.
All off topic. This thread is about energy consumption of the Bitcoin Network. You should go start your own thread discussing how you think energy should or should not be produced.
Thanks.
No worries, we can just let this thread die then.Thanks.
Why would nuclear energy not be able to replace other, dirtier forms of electricity? Nuclear energy is near unlimited, very cheap, reliable and clean.
I didn't say nuclear couldn't replace other forms of energy I said "There is little evidence that nuclear is going to save the day" with the exception of China, the nuclear industry seems to be contracting.
China is putting more GE Gen5 reactors online and India is starting phase 3 of it's thorium based long term plan. I think the rest of the world has pretty much given nuclear a kick in the pants. The US hasn't even approved construction of a single new reactor since the 70s.
Hydrogen can also be very cheaply transported if we ever get over the hangups from the Hindenburg.
Hindenburg fireball isn't caused hydrogen. Its the coating or paint on the outer skin that burned
Energy storage would still be important even in an ideal system as there will always be variable loads but generators gets the highest efficiencies at a consistent load. That's why I mentioned the hilltop land, if there's a competitive market for electricity then even without the erratic output of renewables there's still a market for energy arbitrage, buying at low load times and selling back at peak load times.
As to fossil fuel becoming unaffordable, it could happen very soon if some of the regulatory changes I'm seeing are anything to go by, a lot of european states are opening the doors to anyone and everyone that can come up with renewable systems. Energy company lobbying put a huge tax on Chinese made solar panels in europe but that's about the only place they've forced out competition lately.
By the time the generation born today reaches adulthood, China will have used up most of it's coal reserves making electricity, and many other countries will have run out altogether. The world will be a different place energy wise.As to fossil fuel becoming unaffordable, it could happen very soon if some of the regulatory changes I'm seeing are anything to go by, a lot of european states are opening the doors to anyone and everyone that can come up with renewable systems. Energy company lobbying put a huge tax on Chinese made solar panels in europe but that's about the only place they've forced out competition lately.
There is little evidence that nuclear is going to save the day, that leaves solar, wind, an a bit of hydro depending on the country, fresh water which kind of competes with hydro electricity is a growing problem.
Your other "green" energy sources are unlimited, however are expensive, and unreliable.
RE: Huge Opportunity That Bitcoin Is Perfectly Suited For - When you start to look beyond the traditional constraints of the existing grid and fuel transportation networks you will find that Bitcoin is perhaps one of the best suited technologies to leverage abundant energy resources that are hiding in plain site. Rather than spoil it by elaborating too soon I am curious to know if any of you smart people know what I am referring to. Anyone?
An easier option than these super advanced solar beaming technology would be to have people in the Dakotas build wind turbines and host miners on behalf of other people. The Dakotas have been described as the Saudi Arabia of wind and have the potential to generate enough power to power the entire United States. The catch is, of course, that being ridiculously cold much of the year, almost no one lives there and much of the power generated would likely be lost to power line inefficiencies. But the turbine powered miner technique wouldn't have this problem as the product being sent elsewhere would be bitcoins, not power, which wouldn't require the creation of a whole new system of power lines.
It's definitely a potential market for anyone who lives in this area. They could even use the miner as a space heater during the winter months.
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RE: Huge Opportunity That Bitcoin Is Perfectly Suited For - When you start to look beyond the traditional constraints of the existing grid and fuel transportation networks you will find that Bitcoin is perhaps one of the best suited technologies to leverage abundant energy resources that are hiding in plain site. Rather than spoil it by elaborating too soon I am curious to know if any of you smart people know what I am referring to. Anyone?
This may or may not be what you are looking for, but one option would be to take advantage of variable electric prices that are present in some places of the country. For example, the price of electricity is cheaper at night when people are sleeping as this is generally an off peak period for electric usage. You could only run your miners during this time if it would be unprofitable to run it during the day. Another potential option would likely not be something that an individual could do, but rather a public policy that an individual could attempt to change - to try to get more nuclear energy to be provided to the electric grid.
Interesting discussion...
RE: Solar and Wind - For every megawatt of solar or wind power added to an ISO there must be a megawatt of NG, coal or nuclear power deployed in order to maintain stability of the grid. ISOs such as ERCOT must have the ability to maintain stable supply / frequency which means if a wind farm is feeding the grid then ERCOT must have adequate firm fixed generation capacity such as NG fired spinning reserves to ramp up as the wind stops blowing.
The only way to avoid the need to provide an equal amount of traditional generation to pair with your wind or solar is if you have the energy storage capacity to create an adequate reserve. Batteries are still cost prohibitive as are most other methods. The other option would be to curtail operations as the wind and sun stop blowing or shining.
RE: Huge Opportunity That Bitcoin Is Perfectly Suited For - When you start to look beyond the traditional constraints of the existing grid and fuel transportation networks you will find that Bitcoin is perhaps one of the best suited technologies to leverage abundant energy resources that are hiding in plain site. Rather than spoil it by elaborating too soon I am curious to know if any of you smart people know what I am referring to. Anyone?
RE: Solar and Wind very interesting point that the solar/wind people fail to realize or fail to mention when they push build out of these technologies.RE: Solar and Wind - For every megawatt of solar or wind power added to an ISO there must be a megawatt of NG, coal or nuclear power deployed in order to maintain stability of the grid. ISOs such as ERCOT must have the ability to maintain stable supply / frequency which means if a wind farm is feeding the grid then ERCOT must have adequate firm fixed generation capacity such as NG fired spinning reserves to ramp up as the wind stops blowing.
The only way to avoid the need to provide an equal amount of traditional generation to pair with your wind or solar is if you have the energy storage capacity to create an adequate reserve. Batteries are still cost prohibitive as are most other methods. The other option would be to curtail operations as the wind and sun stop blowing or shining.
RE: Huge Opportunity That Bitcoin Is Perfectly Suited For - When you start to look beyond the traditional constraints of the existing grid and fuel transportation networks you will find that Bitcoin is perhaps one of the best suited technologies to leverage abundant energy resources that are hiding in plain site. Rather than spoil it by elaborating too soon I am curious to know if any of you smart people know what I am referring to. Anyone?
RE: Huge Opportunity That Bitcoin Is Perfectly Suited For sorry, not smart enough to guess.
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