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Symmetrick

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Quote from: adaseb on April 25, 2022, 09:35:56 PM

Today is proof how correlated Bitcoin is for nasdaq. When it was confirmed that Musk bought Twitter it rallied along with the nasdaq 100. Pretty much correlation very close at 90% or so. This is what has been happening pretty much since the start of covid and will be this way for a while.

Right now I have no idea what will happen with stocks. They should go down however everybody is calling for a recession and most likely that won’t happen. So there is a good chance they bottom somewhere where nobody is expecting. Also many stocks are like 80% from ATH pretty much. Many already capitulated like with Facebook and Netflix.

But there are people on the forum who stubbornly refuse to believe that bitcoin correlates with some markets, think that bitcoin is an independent asset Cheesy

Well, of course it is not. Bitcoin is very closely correlated with technology stocks, and this shows up very often. I think that bitcoin will decline following the stock market, because the Fed's policy for 2022-2023 will contribute to this.

I can't predict how much bitcoin will fall in the medium term, but I would like the price to hold 30,000. If we break the key support at 30,000, then this could be the beginning of a deep bearish trend.

Vatimins

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Blue0x.com

While I am expecting crypto assets to follow the movements of stocks when a significant movement happens, I also am more leaned on the idea of bitcoin being a protective asset having the same reasoning as what OP mentioned. This is how I am seeing it : short-term, big movements on stocks will affect crypto assets mainly bitcoin. Long-term, little to no affect or would more likely push bitcoin further up. Still though, I am not sure enough with this thus I do not bank on it that much yet. What I plan to do for now is slow investing and observe.

adaseb

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Today is proof how correlated Bitcoin is for nasdaq. When it was confirmed that Musk bought Twitter it rallied along with the nasdaq 100. Pretty much correlation very close at 90% or so. This is what has been happening pretty much since the start of covid and will be this way for a while.

Right now I have no idea what will happen with stocks. They should go down however everybody is calling for a recession and most likely that won’t happen. So there is a good chance they bottom somewhere where nobody is expecting. Also many stocks are like 80% from ATH pretty much. Many already capitulated like with Facebook and Netflix.

Poker Player

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I think we just need to zoom out. Perceived correlations between Bitcoin and indices such as the Nasdaq or S&P 500 have occurred only over short periods of time. If we take long periods, of at least one cycle, we see that there is no such correlation but small coincidences.

Regarding this year, we have not yet seen a crash per se, but we have seen a downturn and bear market, although it was to be expected in the stock market after the recent returns. If there was a crash such as a 30/50% drop from where we are in a short period of time, I believe that Bitcoin would also go down, but that as happened with the coronavirus, the subsequent rise would be much higher than that of the stock market and other assets.

adaseb

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It won’t be the reason why Bitcoin will crash if stock crash. Sure it makes sense for funds who want to show a quarterly profit they will sell their winning positions to look good if they had too many losing positions, however this is a small percentage.

Go and look at the correlation right now with the nasdaq index, it follows it very closely. We got tons of earnings out soon and if they are bad then crypto will be affected also because all those correlation traders will start to dump when stocks are dumping.

Silberman

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Quote from: davis196 on April 19, 2022, 05:37:36 AM

Quote

You think that there is no correlation and that the market has no cyclicality. I think there are correlations and the bitcoin market is cyclical. You think that bitcoin has not yet reached its top to go for a correction, I believe that it has already reached its top a long time ago and now bitcoin will fall, not rise this year. No 100,000 this year and other dreams will not come true.

I agree that Bitcoin most likely won't hit another ATH this year.
However,I don't agree about the BTC price being correlated to the stocks prices.Such correlation would exist,if the investors had to choose between two options only-Bitcoin and stocks.This cannot happen in the real world and the investors can choose between multiple options:stocks,commodities,precious metals,real estate and government bonds.
The debate about the Bitcoin price being cyclical would continue forever.Maybe there is a cycle,caused by the BTC halvings,but I think that other factors are way more important for influencing the BTC price in one direction or another-the fear&greed index,the monetary policy of the big central banks,mining Hashrate,bullish and FUD news,etc.The BTC halvings are important for creating hype and bullish expectations about the BTC price.

It depends, now that bitcoin has way more volume as it did in the past and now we have institutional investors more traders that were only interested in the stock markets are coming here, this means that during a stock market crash those same traders are in need of some money and a great deal of them could decide to sell their best performing assets to make up for that loss, and without a doubt bitcoin could be included there causing the price to go down days or weeks after a stock market crash.

Reid

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Tradition should change. Once the stock market is down, something must be up. And it should be bitcoin in the front being reported by mainstream media.
That's the only problem in my opinion. Whenever the stocks are down, they want them cash and never invested in anything else.
Options. There should always be one whenever a drought happens. But because of the negative news being fed in traditional investors they would never try to use new kinds of investing and just let it be. Traditions passed down to new generations. But I believe there will be growth somewhere in the future. Change.

davis196

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Quote

You think that there is no correlation and that the market has no cyclicality. I think there are correlations and the bitcoin market is cyclical. You think that bitcoin has not yet reached its top to go for a correction, I believe that it has already reached its top a long time ago and now bitcoin will fall, not rise this year. No 100,000 this year and other dreams will not come true.

I agree that Bitcoin most likely won't hit another ATH this year.
However,I don't agree about the BTC price being correlated to the stocks prices.Such correlation would exist,if the investors had to choose between two options only-Bitcoin and stocks.This cannot happen in the real world and the investors can choose between multiple options:stocks,commodities,precious metals,real estate and government bonds.
The debate about the Bitcoin price being cyclical would continue forever.Maybe there is a cycle,caused by the BTC halvings,but I think that other factors are way more important for influencing the BTC price in one direction or another-the fear&greed index,the monetary policy of the big central banks,mining Hashrate,bullish and FUD news,etc.The BTC halvings are important for creating hype and bullish expectations about the BTC price.

crwth

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https://linktr.ee/crwthopia

Let's get everything cleared out first, and no one would know what would happen to the market; it's always going to be speculation. When it comes to holding positions, it's usually always going to be the risky ones first that will be let go, and I think that's one of the approaches of those institutions that have invested in BTC. But that would depend on whether or not they need to be liquid with what they have. Bitcoin can serve as a protection against the loss of value of certain assets.

777Jolami

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i think if the stock market crash investors immediately move capital into cryptocurrencies and bitcoin becomes attractive as a safe haven asset bitcoin could become one of the only assets offers the opportunity to make a substantial profit and the price of bitcoin will skyrocket

OgNasty

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It’s tough to say really what will happen to Bitcoin when the recession becomes apparent in the markets. I’ve never been alive during a period of inflation like we’re seeing now, so I don’t know what an inflationary recession looks like. It’s quite possible that Bitcoin and markets won’t fall as much as might be expected due to spiking inflation eating away at the value of things. I do believe that Bitcoin won’t be the safe haven during the next recession that some people think and it will more likely act as a speculative asset, but I guess we’ll figure that out sometime in the next 6-18 months.

mu_enrico

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I've measured S&P 500 and BTC correlation some time ago. It was positively correlated but not significant. So if the stock market (S&P 500) crashes, there's still a possibility that the BTC price won't crash as well.

But since the result was pretty near to significant, I think BTC price will follow the stock market just like what happened in the Covid crash.

adaseb

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Bitcoin is not a good hedge against risk off environment. Prior to 2020, Bitcoin was never traded during a recession. It was created after the housing crisis and people for years were saying that during a recession stocks will go down but Bitcoin will go up.

After March 2020 we saw that it clearly wasn’t the case. When the stock market took a nasty dip, so did the crypto markets. Since they we saw it basically trade like a tech stock and it does so today. So during a recession most stocks will be down and so will crypto.

cryptomaniac_xxx

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Quote from: adaseb on April 16, 2022, 09:33:31 PM

Even though Bitcoin is international and trades 24 hours, most of its largest moves are happening in the NY session right before and after when the NYSE opens and closes.

Many Asian sessions and Europeans sessions are chop but usually NY session has activity. Sometimes the European session has some activity that continues into the NY session however most of the volume is during NY.

Hence why it’s correlated to stocks and such.

And it's probably the same players who are in both markets, so somewhat we can see correlations that when one dumps, the other follows.

Of course there could be argument on both sides of the equation, so still boils down as to how investors look at stocks and crypto specially bitcoin. If they see bitcoin as a good hedge then maybe there will be a shift.

GreatArkansas

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There will be always an impact for me on Bitcoin, especially before when COVID 19 started to spread all over the world, we saw a huge drop in all markets, crypto or non-crypto, stocks, etc.,
So, it will depends what is the reason behind, if it is natural cause, I believe there will be effect on Bitcoin <-> stocks.

lornadane

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Quote from: Dhaniii on April 15, 2022, 11:23:03 AM

most of the markets fall due to turbulence between some of the powers or countries that play an important role in the growth of the stock or bitcoin business. I think if the stock market crashes because of an international incident, then the bitcoin market will have an impact too, although the impact is not that significant.

Even though the differences between the two markets are very different, there will still be a negative impact from what is happening with the current stock market.
However the current state of the stock market has not brought down the bitcoin market because there are other forces that keep bitcoin intact.

adaseb

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Even though Bitcoin is international and trades 24 hours, most of its largest moves are happening in the NY session right before and after when the NYSE opens and closes.

Many Asian sessions and Europeans sessions are chop but usually NY session has activity. Sometimes the European session has some activity that continues into the NY session however most of the volume is during NY.

Hence why it’s correlated to stocks and such.

Emitdama

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Unfortunately stock market of USA is somehow connected to bitcoin these days. I do not know why and I have no idea how, but I have seen it go down with bitcoin and go up with bitcoin. The most probably reason could be bitcoin being connected to it, instead of stock market being connected to bitcoin since stock market is bigger. But, I have zero clue why.

First of all bitcoin is an international thing, it is not only the Americans who use it, second of all we should be seeing Americans react to crypto differently compared to stock market, like literally opposite moves if you ask me. Interesting to see it move like this, but it just happens. So if 2022 brings a stock market crash, it will bring a crypto crash as well.

pooya87

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I still say there is absolutely no correlations between bitcoin or any other market or index you can think of. Keep in mind that the lack of correlation doesn't stop people from panic selling/buying though.
Claiming otherwise is like saying there is a correlation between bitcoin price and Elon Musk tweets because it dumped when he tweeted something negative once or twice.

Quote from: Symmetrick on April 15, 2022, 07:01:55 AM

During periods of market instability, investors will first of all get rid of risky assets, which Bitcoin is now, having a strong dependence on other financial markets.

That logic works for domestic assets not global ones. Bitcoin is not an American "asset", it is a global currency. You think 8 billion people in the world sell their assets just because NASDAQ 100 dumped?!!

Quote from: Symmetrick on April 15, 2022, 07:01:55 AM

Do you think the fall in the stock market will affect the price of bitcoin negatively or positively?

It will definitely have a negative affect short term. Mainly because people are now brainwashed into believing that this correlation (that only appeared in the past couple of years and didn't exist before that!!!) exists so they will panic sell.
It is the same human behavior during halving where they panic buy bitcoin about a month or two before the halving and start panic selling a week before the actual date comes.

In long term the same thing that happened in 2020 will repeat meaning US stock market crashes then people panic sell bitcoin. US stock market continues crashing or struggling while bitcoin recovers and reaches a new ATH.

cabron

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Its the future we are foreseeing so its unsure. When there is a crash on stocks normally crypto also takes a dive.

But it could also be positive effect. Seeing that robinhood was listed on SHIB, the stock traders will likely get to have access to cryptocurrency that don't crash thoroughly like BTC and if they only are exposed to SHIB, its likely that its one altcoin they'd buy. But because BTC is also there in robinhood, they'd prefer it. Also like Alex Mashinsky, influencers had spread the word that when everything is crashing, its BTC that will have the highest probability that will survive which investors look for.

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