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Symmetrick

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November 2022 closed with negative returns:

The situation with bitcoin now does not look the best, and there are no serious prerequisites for the market to finally begin to recover. 2022 currently has 7 red months. Looking at past bearish cycles, 2014 had 9 red months and 2018 had 8.

Personally, I do not expect some miracle from December 2022, where the market will explode with increased volumes and price records. If there is a bullish correction, it will not be higher than 20-24k for 1 BTC.

Symmetrick

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Quote from: el kaka22 on October 23, 2022, 01:53:03 AM

It is time for thinking about sideways to recovery kind of market conditions. just 2% downfall in Q3 must be a typical sign about change in market sentiment which may grow bigger to compare against what we had in Q2. In my opinion we had already bottomed out for this cycle (and if not, we may still see another 10% of fluctuation before reversal). The current bear market started earlier than usual timing of bitcoin cycles hence we could expect the end of it earlier as well. Also, world economy is still in oscillation after pandemic hence we could expect impacts of that into bitcoin market.

Overall, we can expect something different that what we had in Q2 and Q3 which may last for another 10+ months. Usually the year before halving is known for sideways and all market scenarios are favoring that.

What makes you think it started earlier? This bearish 2021-2022 cycle is exactly the same as the 2017-2018 cycle. Growth until the end of the year, then the beginning of the fall, a sharp drop in February, then some recovery until May and then a fall again. In 2018, just like now, the price at the end of the year hung around one support level for a long time. Then it was 6,000, now it is 19,000. There is every reason to believe that bitcoin can continue to repeat the past price movement, that is, collapse in November and only at the beginning of next year finally find its bottom.

Punakawan

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Now we are in December and it seems that there is no significant movement, maybe the price can return to the $ 20K level but I'm sure not long then it will go down below $ 20k, indeed the 2022 market is at a very difficult level because of the many FUDS after the emergence of the case FTX.

Zanab247

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Since the year is coming to an end soon, I expect the price of Bitcoin to reach $50k before the end of October so that it will allow investors to prepare well for Christmas and new year celebration.I don't think, the price of Bitcoin will remain low during Christmas and new year celebration, which is the best season many investors use to release their coins to the market to make a suitable profits that will help them to celebrate the new year very well in the community.

fuguebtc

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Quote from: blue_hurricanger on October 23, 2022, 04:35:32 AM

If wasn't because of the recession looming at large, I would've placed my bet on another bullish Q4 like almost every Q4 as before. But since this recession so no bullish for this Q4. If you're in the manufacturing sector, there was a grim situation. Most new orders are drying up, jobs are cut because of that. Seem like everyone in the US/EU tighten their wallet. The Consumer Price Index is increasing while Purchasing Power decreases indicating clearly the effect of inflation is kicking in.
What does this mean for Bitcoin and crypto overall? It means no more leisurely purchasing gifts and overspending on the Christmas and New Year's Eve seasons. Same for Bitcoin/cryptos, I expect strong sell orders took over the market instead of buying orders.

They are in a bearish cycle and maybe the 4 year cycle is still repeating itself, there are usually short-term rallies. With what's going on in the world, I really couldn't expect more, what we can expect is inflation will drop, and war will end, only these can help us think of a bull run in the last days of the year.

The decline in purchasing power is not only happening in the US and EU, if you live in a poorer country you will see how people are struggling with energy and expensive goods. People don't even have enough money to spend everyday so investing with them now is too far away.

blue_hurricanger

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If wasn't because of the recession looming at large, I would've placed my bet on another bullish Q4 like almost every Q4 as before. But since this recession so no bullish for this Q4. If you're in the manufacturing sector, there was a grim situation. Most new orders are drying up, jobs are cut because of that. Seem like everyone in the US/EU tighten their wallet. The Consumer Price Index is increasing while Purchasing Power decreases indicating clearly the effect of inflation is kicking in.
What does this mean for Bitcoin and crypto overall? It means no more leisurely purchasing gifts and overspending on the Christmas and New Year's Eve seasons. Same for Bitcoin/cryptos, I expect strong sell orders took over the market instead of buying orders.

el kaka22

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It is time for thinking about sideways to recovery kind of market conditions. just 2% downfall in Q3 must be a typical sign about change in market sentiment which may grow bigger to compare against what we had in Q2. In my opinion we had already bottomed out for this cycle (and if not, we may still see another 10% of fluctuation before reversal). The current bear market started earlier than usual timing of bitcoin cycles hence we could expect the end of it earlier as well. Also, world economy is still in oscillation after pandemic hence we could expect impacts of that into bitcoin market.

Overall, we can expect something different that what we had in Q2 and Q3 which may last for another 10+ months. Usually the year before halving is known for sideways and all market scenarios are favoring that.

Sir Legend

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After the bitcoin price has continued to decline since the end of 2021 or almost a year then I don't really expect much with the price of bitcoin, maybe the highest price until the end of the year is around $25k even many people believe the price will continue to decline to potentially below $17k.

STT

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We can expect a breakout, an attempt to move the price from the current drift because rarely is Bitcoin rated as more stable a standard then various other assets and measures. In fact quite ironically if BTC did maintain a very steady price it starts to become higher utility in certain trading swaps for that stability, hence when we reach that point it will very likely change I think a bit like magnetic polar opposites can repel etc. The tendency towards just one price recently is short term and would have to be confirmed in multiple ways just like any other kind of support or resistance, we are right on the weekly average and we've tested downwards a number of times I think we go up a bit to test prices there.

buwaytress

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Yeah, so much for Uptober huh? I still think the fact that Bitcoin's never lived through economic turmoil such as we currently have -- and I won't pretend I don't think it'll only get worse before it gets better for everyone around the world -- means we cannot reliably hope that BTC market trends will shrug off the 3 consecutive quarters with a Christmas rally.

Quote from: Woodie on October 17, 2022, 01:04:55 PM

As for Q4 which is a short term move, am bullish on this one and I see us closing the year around $21k-$25k before the big move Wink

For me closing at 21k is just extending consolidation, still can't tell -- again because of the shitstorm happening around us economically -- if this results in massive drawdown or energised rally.

$25k closing would make me feel a lot better for sure.

Kadal Ijo

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In 2 months we will leave 2022 and if you see throughout the year from January then we can say that the market will be red, it is very difficult to rise because there is no positive sentiment, especially the global economic trend that continues to decline.

kawetsriyanto

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I think Q4 will also end with a red zone, maybe around -10% to -20%.
I agree that the biggest drop should be in Q2 (-56,7%), but I suspect there will be another big drop before a rising trend. Moreover, we hear an issue about the recession, the demand in the market may decrease again. People are focusing on savings, they probably limit their funds to buying crypto coins, including BTC. Because of this reason, I guess the scheme will be similar as in 2018. The difference is in Q3, in 2022 will be no green zone.

cryptomaniac_xxx

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Quote from: lixer on October 19, 2022, 03:05:51 PM

Quote from: Solosanz on October 12, 2022, 07:50:48 AM

I expect Bitcoin price would still stay around $19K-$21K since the economic recession and western economy are still not in good condition, so there's not many huge cash circulation on Bitcoin volume. I heard next year economy will be bad too, Bitcoin might slightly recovering on the next year. Many government also trying to make FUD regarding Bitcoin energy consumption too, so I don't expect Bitcoin price will pump at this and the next year.

There is less money that will enter in btc but many of the btc users would sell some of their btc so to support their life outside making the price of btc decline. If the economy remains the same till next year then I don't think a recovery will happen but the price can rather dump more.

That could be a hard decision for btc holders, I mean the price is already declining, and if they sell they it's a lost for them. But for sure, they will have to buy it back at some time, when the price goes down this year or 2023.

Quote from: lixer on October 19, 2022, 03:05:51 PM

The issue about btc energy consumption isn't new but it was only opened up again after they witness that eth is transferring to proof of stake but I don't think this can contribute a lot in terms of price reduction. Miners can always use renewable energy anyway if they want to and still continue supporting btc. Governments should tell the truth that they only hate btc, not that they look concerned about the environment.

The attack on bitcoin consumption will still be the biggest FUD, even in 2017 it was one of the topic and yet the price goes up because we are in a bullrun. So same thing will happen in 2024, there will be a lot of negative things but the price will grow no matter what kind of attacks or FUD by btc detractors.

lixer

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Quote from: Solosanz on October 12, 2022, 07:50:48 AM

I expect Bitcoin price would still stay around $19K-$21K since the economic recession and western economy are still not in good condition, so there's not many huge cash circulation on Bitcoin volume. I heard next year economy will be bad too, Bitcoin might slightly recovering on the next year. Many government also trying to make FUD regarding Bitcoin energy consumption too, so I don't expect Bitcoin price will pump at this and the next year.

There is less money that will enter in btc but many of the btc users would sell some of their btc so to support their life outside making the price of btc decline. If the economy remains the same till next year then I don't think a recovery will happen but the price can rather dump more.

The issue about btc energy consumption isn't new but it was only opened up again after they witness that eth is transferring to proof of stake but I don't think this can contribute a lot in terms of price reduction. Miners can always use renewable energy anyway if they want to and still continue supporting btc. Governments should tell the truth that they only hate btc, not that they look concerned about the environment.

Franctoshi

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Quote from: Symmetrick on October 04, 2022, 05:06:13 PM

Q3 2022 closed in the red zone. 2022 was the first year with 3 consecutive red quarters:
At the same time, in the entire history of the bitcoin market, there has not been a year in which all quarters were in the red zone. Thus, it is highly likely that the 4th quarter of 2022 will close in the green zone. At the moment, the price is consolidating and approaching a global downtrend, which can break through, marking the beginning of a global market reversal and subsequent recovery and accumulation.
What are your expectations for the end of this year? In what price zone do you expect this year to close?

For me the Market will continue to consolidate and we will still be getting the little pumps and dumps within this zones were are in right now. I do think that the Q4 will still end in red, Literally there is no volume in the market right now, secondly I'm still expecting that the Fed will continue to raise interest rate come November and the market will take a beating for that.
Therefore, until the fundamental holders of Bitcoin starts getting stronger and stronger, that's the only time when I do think that the market will bounce back.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: BobK71 on October 17, 2022, 02:22:53 PM

We are almost at the end of Q4 2022. But the current situation can never be positive for Bitcoin. It's not just cryptocurrencies. The entire economy has come to a standstill ‍situation. However, several events are representing it positively for crypto. But when the world conditions will be good, we will definitely see the crypto at the top position. At this point we need to be more patient.

While I agree that the world economy doesn't look great and this is bound to be a problem for bitcoin (and other investments) price, you've confused something: we're only at the beginning of Q4. You know, Q4 means October, November and December; and we're just a little over half of October.
I am a bit worried, but I still hope the trend turns this year.

BobK71

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We are almost at the end of Q4 2022. But the current situation can never be positive for Bitcoin. It's not just cryptocurrencies. The entire economy has come to a standstill ‍situation. However, several events are representing it positively for crypto. But when the world conditions will be good, we will definitely see the crypto at the top position. At this point we need to be more patient.

Woodie

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So this is my analysis based on the weekly time frame, and from this, I can safely say markets are getting ready for the pullback...which is popularly known around here as the Bullrun & looking at how long markets have been consolidating at the current low we are getting ready for the counter trend and bullish move at the same time. And using my gann box tool to draw my premium and discount clearly shows that the best targets price will want to sell from are around $44k-$48k or the top zone of $64k-$68k but the first zone does stand out as a good area to target.

As for Q4 which is a short term move, am bullish on this one and I see us closing the year around $21k-$25k before the big move Wink

philipma1957

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Quote from: Symmetrick on October 04, 2022, 05:06:13 PM

Q3 2022 closed in the red zone. 2022 was the first year with 3 consecutive red quarters:

At the same time, in the entire history of the bitcoin market, there has not been a year in which all quarters were in the red zone. Thus, it is highly likely that the 4th quarter of 2022 will close in the green zone. At the moment, the price is consolidating and approaching a global downtrend, which can break through, marking the beginning of a global market reversal and subsequent recovery and accumulation.

Although this does not mean that there will be a mega-pump at the end of the year, which will give us again prices of 50-60k for 1 bitcoin. But there are some chances to close the annual candle in the region of 30-35k. I also do not rule out such a scenario that before breaking above the downtrend, Bitcoin may once again test 17600 or go below this mark.

What are your expectations for the end of this year? In what price zone do you expect this year to close?

Well if the Russian vs Ukraine conflict ends shortly. There will be a huge rally across the board in stocks and in crypto. Along with a drop in inflation.

If the conflict does not end inflation will not be stopped for a minimum of 2-3 years.

Which means huge bond prices such as the US savings bond the I bond in particular is at 9.62% for at least six months once you buy it.

So it is perfectly pegged to the dollar why on earth invest in a pos coin or even btc when you are certain to get 9.62% for the next six months.

since 330 million people can buy it and with proper management they can buy up to 15000 worth a year that means as much as 330 mill x 15000 usd = 4.95trillion is available year after year after year.

even if only 500 billion is purchased it sucks the money away from crypto especially pos crypto which is essentially no more than a bond.

So all depends on the speed of that conflict ending.

My guess is the conflict continues one and on and on. Usually conflicts like this do exactly that.

So bitcoin will drift down and or sideways in quarter 4 of 2022 and quarter 1,2,3,4 of 2023 and Quarters 1,2,3 of 2024. But the 2024 election will alter it. That is worst case .

Best case we wake up tommorrow and the Russian conflict with Ukraine has ended.

Yatsan

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Quote from: michellee on October 17, 2022, 09:37:47 AM

Quote from: Ararbermas on October 17, 2022, 09:14:01 AM

Probably it will be the time for bitcoin to bulish again, wherein at least on the current all time high because obviously bitcoin really making correction below and after the good progress last quarter it didn't came back again. So i believe the cycle still the same and before this year end for sure bitcoin will glow again in the market and will skyrocketed like what always happen after the massive decline. This is all a temporary situation for bitcoin.

It could be but maybe bitcoin still needs more time to start bullish again. The price of bitcoin is still around $19k-$20k so maybe we have to be patient again because it is not easy to move the price to start rising again. Besides that, the current price is not a guarantee of the lowest bitcoin price because the current price may drop again to a lower price than now.

But in the end, the price of bitcoin will definitely increase and we may not realize it later and we only know that it turns out that the price of bitcoin is already at its highest price. But we still hope that in Q4, this bitcoin price can start to increase, even if a little. If the price of bitcoin can return to $25k-$30k, maybe that is a sign for bitcoin to experience another bullish phase.

We never saw Bitcoin being the only token in a bullish movement, definitely other tokens should also be in an upward motion. At the present we are seeing the opposite wherein majority of cryptos are struggling to break margins and barriers. Now that we are already in the fourth quarter of the year, I guess it would be more realistic to view this year end as something not as most of us hoped and expected. Hopefully, early next year would be a better year for this industry. Many factors affected our assumption for this year such as economic crisis and conflict between countries, and this simply shows there are many things that could affect price predictions.

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