Your link gimme this usefull info :
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Also i have not said about EXPONENTIAL growth,
but about rise of productability due to progress and innovation.
Topic: : - page 8. (Read 12716 times)
No, the myth is that exponential growth can continue:
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/
Phenomenal post! Thanks for sharing
we are soooo fucked 
Not at all! As Murphy suggested at the end of the discussion, future economies and growth will be unrecognizable.
Quote from: Tom Murphy
It’s not growing GDP, growing energy use, interest on bank accounts, loans, fractional reserve money, investment. It’s a whole different ballgame, folks. Of that, I am convinced. Big changes await us. An unrecognizable economy.
The way Bitcoin is structured allows for development/growth (to use Murphy's terms) in a way so totally foreign to contemporary views that any lack of a deep understanding leads people to think it's a scam, when a decade from now we'll be laughing at how anyone could've even entertained that thought.
There's also a historical pattern in which slowing or stagnant growth builds pressure until a new direction for growth breaks out. Going the 'space cadet' route means it's likely that humanity will approach the limits possible on Earth, then expand outward from there - like the surface area of the light bulb to a body, activity from Earth will spread to other planets.
As long as we don't send ourselves into oblivion first
Post growth economy is a myth
Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
I agree, with the current financial system, an economy that does not grow is doomed. And because the current financial system isn't going anywhere, economic growth is only going to go faster and faster, and we'll kill the F'in planet in the process...
Oh well... we tried!
i find interesting how you say "Soon (years) technological progress will resume"
your right we should wait for technological progress to allow us to grow in a sustainable manner .... ( never gana happen -_- )
i think the biggest technological challenge in the next 100 years, will be figuring out how to feed 1 trillion people.... could we maybe PRINT more MONEY? or right no more F'in trees! damn it
we are soooo fucked
buy some bitcoins today, let it symbolize your anger toward the financial system that has played a key role in the destruction of ourselves
Your link gimme this usefull info :
Error 403
We're sorry, but we could not fulfill your request for /do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ on this server.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also i have not said about EXPONENTIAL growth,
but about rise of productability due to progress and innovation.
Error 403
We're sorry, but we could not fulfill your request for /do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ on this server.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also i have not said about EXPONENTIAL growth,
but about rise of productability due to progress and innovation.
Works fine for me... also WTF is "productability"?
Post growth economy is a myth
Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
No, the myth is that exponential growth can continue:
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/
Look for a lot of stories in the upcoming news about 'investment' in Africa. The Asian story is so last decade.
"...at any moment there might be a special bulletin from the Ministry of Peace. The news from the African front was disquieting in the extreme. ..."
- Orwell
What most have considered a cautionary tale, others have recognized as prophecy.
Some aspects of our present condition when compared Orwell's material are so striking that I have to wonder if the story has been used as something of an inspiration to certain segments of our leadership.
Whatever the case, comparing the book against reality (and especially as reality evolves) is one of the more chilling and awe-inspiring things I can think of off-hand.
What most have considered a cautionary tale, others have recognized as prophecy.
The end result remains the same.
Look for a lot of stories in the upcoming news about 'investment' in Africa. The Asian story is so last decade.
"...at any moment there might be a special bulletin from the Ministry of Peace. The news from the African front was disquieting in the extreme. ..."
- Orwell
By 'dilution' I take it that you mean 'inflation'. I do not expect the USD to inflate (hyperinflate) more than currencies as a whole. In the short term it will inflate less, which is part of the Fed's strategy. As we face diminishing growth, and post growth, the debt based markets will surely crumble. The Fed will use the IMF and other means to funnel wealth to US interests.
Oh I was using dilution in regard to global usage of the dollar, not monetary inflation. Much like the Gox share of BTC trading has declined (dilution of the market by number and quality of competitors eroding Gox' share), usage of the USD around the world is declining relative to other currencies. Inflation is one reason for that decrease in usage.
Nah, exploitation of African resources can keep this zombie limping along for another few decades.
Look for a lot of stories in the upcoming news about 'investment' in Africa. The Asian story is so last decade.
Questions arise: to what extent will exploitation occur vs long-term productive enterprise, and by whom? Exploitation tends to result in difficulties later on, making continued exploitative activity more costly than more equitable ventures. Africa has been on China's & South American nations' radar for some time, with a lot of wealth engaged in such long-term dealings.
The USD will die, by the hands of the federal reserve, we just need to count down the days. Manipulation of economies is what they do best...
It has already lost its world reserve currency holding, its all downhill from here.
It has already lost its world reserve currency holding, its all downhill from here.
The day that treasury rates begin to rise is the beginning of the end.
I don't know what the new reserve currency will be, but the dollar's last stand will be during the current debt crisis. Then it will go the way of the sterling IMO.
Nah, exploitation of African resources can keep this zombie limping along for another few decades.
they will do everything and anything to keep the current system alive
theirs no reason it should fail... the rules can be changed.
The USD will die.
You must be new to this whole "American Backed Dollar" thing.
So long as the USA has an army and a choke hold on the worlds oil supply, the USD isn't going anywhere.
The USD will die, by the hands of the federal reserve, we just need to count down the days. Manipulation of economies is what they do best...
It has already lost its world reserve currency holding, its all downhill from here.
It has already lost its world reserve currency holding, its all downhill from here.
The day that treasury rates begin to rise is the beginning of the end.
I don't know what the new reserve currency will be, but the dollar's last stand will be during the current debt crisis. Then it will go the way of the sterling IMO.
The USD will die, by the hands of the federal reserve, we just need to count down the days. Manipulation of economies is what they do best...
It has already lost its world reserve currency holding, its all downhill from here.
Not sure which economy will pick up the slack when it tanks, the european maybe but not likely, my guess would be the far east. For all we know, it could be a domino effect taking one out after another.
It has already lost its world reserve currency holding, its all downhill from here.
Not sure which economy will pick up the slack when it tanks, the european maybe but not likely, my guess would be the far east. For all we know, it could be a domino effect taking one out after another.
Actually, I would expect the opposite effect with greater proportional dilution of the USD compared with other currencies. The scenario I have put forth assumes a relatively strong USD. Which is also essential for the US to push its AML/KYC agendas globally.
In what market do you expect USD will be diluted, traditional markets, or Bitcoin? I see a spillover effect from USD to other currencies. In looking at the overall trend formed by the cyclical dollar strength patterns, I agree that the dollar will be diluted more than others (in both traditional and Bitcoin markets), largely because of its periods of relative strength and compliance efforts.
So, what do you think this means for Bitcoin?
I maintain that there will be a continued erosion in the percent of USD/BTC share and so a continued erosion of Gox's overall market share. Which I think it good for Bitcoin.
I maintain that there will be a continued erosion in the percent of USD/BTC share and so a continued erosion of Gox's overall market share. Which I think it good for Bitcoin.
The dilution of USD is a global effect, and I think inevitable that it's being reflected in the Bitcoin environment. Definitely a good thing for Bitcoin - increasing global mindshare with decreasing USD-exclusive exposure means that Bitcoin will be on the receiving end of wealth flows from multiple sources.
Gox may see a similar decrease in USD flows, but the overall BTC market share depends much more on policy. The recent AML/KYC moves have been very discouraging.
There will be no direct QE from the Fed, but it will be done through the back door of inflating currencies other than the USD. Because, their aim is not to create a net inflation for the USD, but for all the world's currencies as a whole. The net effect will be the world chasing after USD.
Yes.
First, funds are loaned via swap agreements:
Fed($)->Banks
Banks on the receiving end lever up through FRB:
Banks($)*X->($$$$$$$$$$)
Then initial funds are returned, but the levered funds remain:
(X)Banks($)->Fed
The difference between the two can be multiples of the initial funding made available:
(X)=($$$$$$$$$$)-($)
The end result is that fractional reserve fuel is provided for local/regional currency inflation (e.g. Euros):
Banks($$$$$$$$$)->Euros
The process begins all over again from the swap agreements. As the world ramps up its base monetary supply, the dollar remains relatively stable by comparison because the same amount of dollars are repeatedly lent out, so dollar value rises versus other currencies. That keeps going until strain develops at a sufficient level and the dollar finally has to be eased, which is where we are now.
This indirect form of QE has been continuously ongoing, and even accelerating. It's hard to say what form of direct QE we'll see, but it will be before the end of the year. The dollar will then sharply decline relative to other currencies and the inflationary cycle will repeat again.
Post growth economy is a myth
Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
-------------------
Of cause , if humans will not try WWIII with nuclear "bombing accidents" ...
Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
-------------------
Of cause , if humans will not try WWIII with nuclear "bombing accidents" ...
All the Fed has to do is sit on its hands.
Everyone else will ease.
Everyone else will ease.
All the fed has to do is make sure Oil can only be bought with USD. That's their thumb, if you will, and the whole world is under it.
Post growth economy is a myth
Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
-------------------
Of cause , if humans will not try WWIII with nuclear "bombing accidents" ...
Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
-------------------
Of cause , if humans will not try WWIII with nuclear "bombing accidents" ...
I hold that we humans are a lot more similar to bacteria than we are different. Once we run low on energy we'll start to die off. When we do see an economic boom it will likely follow a significant population reducing incident. We saw a similar scenario following the black plague for instance. Growth happens as we fill up to the carrying capacity of the environment, and it looks to me like we are getting close. Even if not, a glance at the exponential nature of various curves indicates that it won't be terribly long when measured in time anyway.
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