Stop looking for news events to move the market.
The market moves when the market wants to move and the news events get stapled to it with hindsight.
Perhaps China is already priced in? (doubt it), perhaps it is still to be priced in? (most likely). Either way, you don't know the myriad of mechanisms involved that will lead to certain players dumping coins or eating up as many as they can buy, even if you have a 'news event' to refer to.
Mat appreciate your opinion - unfortunately I hear most current eventS via the media. Bitcoins price is multivariate, but a lot of folks on here have attributed recent drops due to China's present situation, that's why I felt it pertinent. No offense intended.
Obviously news events affect the price of Bitcoin in that they often relate to real world Bitcoin investing phenomena.
i.e. PBOC intends to shut down all Bitcoin exchanges.
This leads to Joe Blow in China fleeing from the market in a panic. But, had Bitcoin been trading flat for months, would this news have had the same effect? Bitcoin was already through the roof parabolic and had already formed a very ominous double top and was ready to take a plummet anyhow. The news only hastened and perhaps accentuated what the market was wanting to do anyways.
What I am saying is don't go chasing headlines.
Reading through Yip Yip's responses, he is probably right in that the trend is set to reverse, but that doesn't mean that Bitcoin won't go right down to the $200 range first. It might, it might not. Question is that if you buy NOW, with such a large chunk of your savings and thus future security at stake; how are you going to react if/when the market goes against you? I have seen me closing short positions right at a point where I am advocating other people short. i.e. my rational thinking 'knows' that the market has ran it's course and is about to correct but my emotional state can't take the torture of the chance of having my whole position liquidated and taking a 100% loss. So I cemented a very large loss on that one grossly misguided short trade and guess what? Had I just held out and adjusted my position a bit (cos otherwise my liquidation price point would have been triggered and I would have been wiped out), then I could have broken even. So, just consider how rationally
you will behave if you take Yip Yip's advice and buy-in NOW only for the market to take another leg down. Last time I seen him give someone this advice, it was me he was 'advising', and Bitcoin was at $520.
Get your self to the TA drawing board and mark down the two important long term trendlines. One of which is going to be breached within a few days. Actually, here is a screenshot for you:
The long term resistance line dates back to the Dec 2013 highs. If this were to be breached, that would strongly suggest that the down wave has completed and would be bullish. The long term support line goes way back to the foot of the big ramp up, when Bitcoin was still just around $10. If that were to be breached, it would suggest that the phase of the grand cycle for which that line was a support is over, at at some point in the future,
Bitcoin would need to be testing the 'even grander cycle' support line beneath it, which intersects the support line shown in the screenshot, but dates back to the Nov 2011 low, and is presently hovering around the $100 mark (I amn't suggesting that Bitcoin will go to $100 btw). Also shown in the screenshot is a resistance trend line that has been in force since Jan 6th 2014. What I am doing, is that I am waiting for that to be breached and confirmed before taking a long in the $400 range. Currently that would mean prices of around $470. If it were to occur (I really don't think it will), then I would be watching like a hawk for price action up and around the major resistance trend line above it. If Bitcoin fails to take out that then I would close 100% my position.
Right now, with Bitcoin hovering around $440 on ultra low volume. The only wise investment decision to take is do nothing and wait for a breach of the trendlines for the market to show you unequivocally what it's intentions are.Hi Mat, how's it going mate - Cheers for the post and sorry for the late reply, been busy all day
Yeah YipYip makes a good point about the potential reversal. As a safe guard, we were thinking of immediately liquidating 80% BTC funds on Localbitcoins and then buying back equivalent amount @market, in this case, $200 range, if the market turns south. This is only way I can think of?
Thank for the chart! Projected resistance and trend-lines, intriguing. Good tactic your using there, took me a while to get my head around
Volumetric based barriers. Mate, reckon you got decent chance for $470 action.
Volume is low, all round! Effectively being patient and waiting for high volume movement.
We are currently still at the $360 wall on Bstamp. Brother it's gonna take days, weeks to make this acquisition
Virtuous Bitcoins