Topic: 08/05/2014 Anyone else waiting to buy back in next down turn? - page 3. (Read 4661 times)

I'm thinking scenario C most likely but hoping for B first     So if you had an extraordinary amount of FIAT to acquire BTC, you would personally shoot low for now and wait?

Which scenario do you think is most likely?

Haha, interesting chart, thanks for that!

Fun and Games  



UPDATE: I'm still locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp atm.

I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

A. Based on a lack of sellers, supply gradually falls to meet and exceed the lack of fresh fiat. In this scenario 420 or slightly below would be our bottom and we'd range trade for a while, maybe months before slowly going up.

B. Lack of demand + new coins to the markets + Chinese squeeze on new fiat + Chinese abandonment of exchanges leads us to test low of 340 and with likelihood, break through it. Bear market continues, possible retest of 270.

C. Market rally's from here to mid 500s to low 600s then comes back down to retest high 400s before moving into a slow bull market.

Take your pick, there are reasons why each could happen.

Your saying what a lot of us are thinking - Thanks for post!

So $50-75 at most $390-375

Have the same fears too that we're non-stop to $500 now. But PBOC might restrict to the point at which Chinese bitcoiners can only acquire with physical CNY/RMB.

and this is how it develops over next 8 months...



clearly we are all far too optimistic

fwiw this is the end of may consensus of the players in our little game of predict the price...

I'm getting the feel that nothing significant will happen on May 10th. Perhaps even a rise after the weekend.  However, we've heard that the PBOC is concerned about bank accounts being used to purchase bitcoin (which makes absolutely zero sense, as it is legal to own and the Chinese have to use Yuan to actually purchase it, duh).  If the PBOC perceive a rise, ANY rise in price, as some kind of threat or against the spirit of their wishes, they will try to exact further measures with more FUD and threats to the Chinese exchanges.  And this could take weeks to play out, as the PBOC does everything on a delay.

The only real question remaining is a) how many total bitcoin is owned by the Chinese out of the total out there in circulation, and b) of what percentage are these folks willing to sell on more China bad news (i.e., possible Chinese exchange shutdown).  My guess is not many left.  Those with the most fear of the PBOC or the weakest hands would have sold long ago.

My feeling is the amount of bitcoin owned by the Chinese is now a much smaller subset of the total bitcoin in the world, than it was back in November.  And so, this has now become an elaborate game of Chicken.  Can a Chinese selloff affect the price that much from here?  My bet is nay, maybe $50-75 at most.  The PBOC cannot hold back the tide forever, because bitcoin is global.

Well said mate! Was thinking along the same lines. I do understand staggering offers some protection but I too am waiting for that one last dip 

Problem is, in my experience those dips never arrived with respect to China. Well at least not on time 

Is there anybody else expecting something to happen on 10-11th May?

Must still be profitable for them, think they're trying their best to get Fully complied. Other banks within china are still currently processing withdrawals/deposits for now.

Agreed, I wouldn't lock in at any price. I'd probably stagger my buys from now over the next two weeks, since I and several others are expecting a market reversal soon, but there could be one last dip beforehand.

Yeah hear you bro! However largest proportion at lowest price, would be ace  

I think most would suggest not to 'lock-in' at one price.

Both good points! Agreed, would take something Epic to filter down Media channels and reach $360-380 range.

That would be a movement of $60-80.

If you were me, what price would you lock-in Kireinaha?

Oh yeah, someone please explain to me how they are still alive?

I don't discount the possibility that it could happen, in fact I've spent much of last night awake crunching numbers and going over recent graphs and I've come up with the possibility that we could see a dip to $380 in the next two weeks, but it would need the proper catalyst. The market has been shrugging off most of the China FUD at this point, so it would probably take closures BTC China and Huobi at this point to reach that price level again.

True say mate! The last move took us down to around the $420 range and I would need a much larger net volume "dump" so hit $360's.

I must concede that current market price will turn out to be the best deal, will keep on toe's with you brother 

Nice one MTC, so you're shooting low. In fact you are using my current strategy - For now will keep locked-in @$360

Everyone is just waiting for someone else to make a move.
We're beginning to come to the breakout point of a few TA's and waiting for the stars to align imo.
I would be hesitant on relying on it going down much further and keep on your toes.

The old Sheep effect     You're probably right

Good man!