Topic: 1 BTC = 20 USD - page 3. (Read 32098 times)

when miners impact on BTC flow was reduced[which is happen in 2-3 months, regardless mining scale, IMO], its happen.

This is a pretty good analogy.

Except diamonds are easier to control since they were in the hands of even fewer people.

I'm beginning to think that the rally was caused by a very small number of somewhat large investors who were trying to get in.  The market was able to absorb some of that through people selling, but that push has somewhat disappeared (at least for now).  The selling pressure is still there, so that's making the price go down just a bit.

Since the market has so few actually for sale, it takes so little to make it move up, but once that dries up, the slide back down happens.

+1

The problem with setting expectations or goals to high is when you fail to achieve them depression sets into the market. The enthusiasm should be commended but tempered by realistic goals. Don't hype the market, temper it.

NO doubt, maybe more....

I've started thinking bitcoins have nothing to do with gold. They are more like diamonds, with people having stashes filled with them but not releasing them too quickly or the price will drop really quickly
One thing is for sure, if old bitcoiners want to fix a maximum price, (eg 10 €) they can sell those at that price for quite a long time...

Lets see a pic of your wallet?

Are you seriously going to try to cash out? How long do you expect it to take you to liquidate a million dollars of BTC?

i think it definately could reach $20, its weather or not the us govt fucks it up or not by then.

holy crap.

way to totally trample on motivation, dude.

forgive me if i just ignore you forever... 

As an early investor who came across 300 BTC today, and then found a backup of his 46,850 BTC wallet, the prospect of a $20 exchange rate pleases me.

I'd like a million dollars, please.

It might be better to post estimates independently first just to make sure we don't bias each other.

I definitely consider my estimates to be a wild-ass guess.  However, it was pretty remarkable that my numbers came out to be almost exactly the mtgox price at the time, it was quite scary.

Agreed.

Okay, so you have a range of outcome scenarios and estimated a likelihood (probablity) of each of those occurring (with a pessimistic/conservative bias). Sounds like a good starting point and a worthwhile exercise. What about you put up the range of values of probabilities and we'll have something to discuss ... (yes I'm bored) ... to your benefit we may collectively come up with a better estimate on the likelihood probabilities than you on your own ....

... we'll can call it the "pizza guy analysis", after the guy who delivered 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC (maybe he did a similar thought process).

Obviously it is rough estimates.

I picked a bunch of various possible endpoints for BitCoin that weren't based on speculation.  They ranged from "be as significant as gold" to "totally worthless".  I of course had a few points in between.  I then tried to come up with the likelihood that each scenario is reached.  I tried to be somewhat pessimistic on it.  Multiply probability by value, and you get a rough value.  Then discount the longshot scenarios to account for the variance (I wouldn't risk $3,000 for a 1 in a million chance of $3 billion with no other possibility, for example).  Sum it up.  I based each scenario on actual value.  I based each likelihood based on pulling things out of my ass.

So yeah, it's not going to be exact, and have a huge margin of error.  But to invest serious money into something, putting in *some* effort is better than hoping and praying.

Care to elucidate us on what those "fundamentals" may be?

Besides, "I just pulled this figure out of my backside and it seems about right."? (as fundamental as that is doesn't make it believable. Anybody who believes they have a fundamental way to value bitcoins is in la-la land. There are just impossibly many variables involved.

 

How does that matter?  You don't need to sell many to drive things down a LOT.  Once that happens, maybe those who "aren't really interested" start thinking "crap, I could have bought a new car, now I have enough to buy new shoes".  If enough people are true believers and believe they can sell a few thousand for $200 next year, they'll hold even in a big drop, and even buy enough to bring the price back up.  It's hard to predict where things will go because it's so much psychology.

If the majority of holders got in when it was dirt cheap, then you'll see a lot less panic since they aren't really losing anything (even though they are).  The people who bought at $2 panic when it hits $3, $5 when it hits $6, etc...  People tend to be very terrified of losing money on something.  They'll hold onto losers far past their entry point just to try to break even.

But I do suspect that the holders of BTC will hold on longer than the general public in a panic since it's not really money to them but points in a video game.  And due to the younger demographics, they don't have actual obligations to pay for things, so the money is not as valuable (it's easier to risk $10,000 for $10 million on a longshot if you don't have mouths to feed, a mortgage to pay, etc...).  Add in a bit of irrationality in how high it may go (replace all money in the world), and you have even less of a panic.  The cult mentality actually helps a lot during any kind of panic that may occur.

I actually did some calculations and based on fundamentals and future values, I put a fundamental value at about $5/BTC.  It's super rough, so anywhere in the $2.50-10 range is probably within reason, but most outcomes are either valueless or very valuable, so it's a big risk.

I think that those people who bought them cheap, and have not sold until now, will not sell them now. I speak for myself, because I'm one of them (bought a few thousand for 0.7$). At least I hope so.

Moreover, I plan to stop watching the stock exchange within 1-2 months. It is very tiring:)

I have a feeling that the dolt who least care about their bitcoins, will be the richest in the end.

Those with the most bitcoins aren't really even paying attention to the price, because they aren't really interested in selling.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.