1% of offshore tax haven bank accounts in bitcoin = $2.8million/btc -trace mayer - page 2.

Anon136

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Quote from: drnick on November 29, 2013, 09:33:21 PM

I think the error is in saying "Just 1%", which IMHO is more than would be allocated to bitcoin even at it's prime.

If you have an offshore account you have some wealth. You won't be putting a large % of your cash into bitcoin. Let's say you'd be ok with 3% of your offshore wealth in bitcoin.

Then, assume that only 2% of offshore accounts would actually do so. 2% is a reasonable adoption level.

So now you have 3% of 2% of offshore wealth in bitcoin, which is 0.06% of that 30 trillion dollars. That would be about $168k/BTC.

You can revise what you feel is more realistic, but your equation should account for (level of adoption %) x (% allocation in bitcoin given adoption).

The reason they would want to allocate their offshore reserves in bitcoin is so they DONT have to keep them offshore.

beetcoin

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Quote from: Anon136 on November 29, 2013, 11:14:54 PM

Quote from: beetcoin on November 29, 2013, 09:29:27 PM

at those rates, we'd have multiple trillionaires holding BTC. that kind of seismic wealth redistribution would really upset the wealthy elite i'd think.

simple math: 1% of 30 trillion is .3 trillion, or 300 billion dollars for the market cap... so isn't that only about 12x present day value of BTC if the market cap is $300 billion? then again, we have to add that amount to our current market cap, but that wouldn't even be enough. there may be something wrong in my math though.. feel free to correct me anyone.

your math seems right to me.

yeah, so i don't know where he got that $2.8M number, but it doesn't seem right.

Anon136

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Quote from: beetcoin on November 29, 2013, 09:29:27 PM

at those rates, we'd have multiple trillionaires holding BTC. that kind of seismic wealth redistribution would really upset the wealthy elite i'd think.

simple math: 1% of 30 trillion is .3 trillion, or 300 billion dollars for the market cap... so isn't that only about 12x present day value of BTC if the market cap is $300 billion? then again, we have to add that amount to our current market cap, but that wouldn't even be enough. there may be something wrong in my math though.. feel free to correct me anyone.

your math seems right to me.

beetcoin

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Quote from: drnick on November 29, 2013, 09:45:08 PM

Quote from: beetcoin on November 29, 2013, 09:40:48 PM

well if you have those many rich people competing with one another, that 2% adoption rate looks mighty conservative, especially when BTC is booming into a difference universe.

What % of those rich people do you think actually own gold? (for the record I have no idea). If we knew that, we might get a better idea for what an appropriate adoption % might be for bitcoin.

EDIT: this link estimates 1-2% of americans own gold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qoj-s-Hhfgs

is your assumption that whatever %2 of peoples wealth from gold would be transferred to BTC? i don't think that's enough.. there would be a huge bullish fervor and greed will lead the way.

at the top of the food chain, people participate in the rat race to have the most money.. "just because they can." at some point when you have that much money, your assets are just like toys and you want to have the biggest one in town.

drnick

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Quote from: beetcoin on November 29, 2013, 09:40:48 PM

well if you have those many rich people competing with one another, that 2% adoption rate looks mighty conservative, especially when BTC is booming into a difference universe.

What % of those rich people do you think actually own gold? (for the record I have no idea). If we knew that, we might get a better idea for what an appropriate adoption % might be for bitcoin.

EDIT: this link estimates 1-2% of americans own gold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qoj-s-Hhfgs

beetcoin

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Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: drnick on November 29, 2013, 09:33:21 PM

I think the error is in saying "Just 1%", which IMHO is more than would be allocated to bitcoin even at it's prime.

If you have an offshore account you have some wealth. You won't be putting a large % of your cash into bitcoin. Let's say you'd be ok with 3% of your offshore wealth in bitcoin.

Then, assume that only 2% of offshore accounts would actually do so. 2% is a reasonable adoption level.

So now you have 3% of 2% of offshore wealth in bitcoin, which is 0.06% of that 30 trillion dollars. That would be about $168k/BTC.

You can revise what you feel is more realistic, but your equation should account for (level of adoption %) x (% allocation in bitcoin given adoption).

well if you have those many rich people competing with one another, that 2% adoption rate looks mighty conservative, especially when BTC is booming into a difference universe.

drnick

newbie

Activity: 26

Merit: 0

I think the error is in saying "Just 1%", which IMHO is more than would be allocated to bitcoin even at it's prime.

If you have an offshore account you have some wealth. You won't be putting a large % of your cash into bitcoin. Let's say you'd be ok with 3% of your offshore wealth in bitcoin.

Then, assume that only 2% of offshore accounts would actually do so. 2% is a reasonable adoption level.

So now you have 3% of 2% of offshore wealth in bitcoin, which is 0.06% of that 30 trillion dollars. That would be about $168k/BTC.

You can revise what you feel is more realistic, but your equation should account for (level of adoption %) x (% allocation in bitcoin given adoption).

beetcoin

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

at those rates, we'd have multiple trillionaires holding BTC. that kind of seismic wealth redistribution would really upset the wealthy elite i'd think.

simple math: 1% of 30 trillion is .3 trillion, or 300 billion dollars for the market cap... so isn't that only about 12x present day value of BTC if the market cap is $300 billion? then again, we have to add that amount to our current market cap, but that wouldn't even be enough. there may be something wrong in my math though.. feel free to correct me anyone.

Anon136

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Quote

"If you moved just 1% of the cash balances from off shore tax haven bank accounts, which currently hold estimated 30 trillion dollars of value, if you move just 1% of that into bitcoin you are looking at 2.8 million dollars per bitcoin"

That was a quote from trace mayer from (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZwmgeeFB-E&t=7m15s)

Is this right? Can anyone point out a flaw in this reasoning? That 1% figure makes 2.8 million dollars per bitcoin sound oddly conservative and saying 2.8 million dollars per btc is conservative makes me feel like i sound like I'm out of my mind. What do you guys think?

Topic: 1% of offshore tax haven bank accounts in bitcoin = $2.8million/btc -trace mayer - page 2. (Read 3777 times)