Topic: 100 Days Left before Bitcoin to be more Scarce - page 3. (Read 671 times)
People are expecting it already. Since the supply is affected when bitcoin halving will occur and the reward of miners were also cut into half then the supply will be decreased and the price is expecting to be boom like previous halving. However, there are still rumuors that it will be the other way around. Some also said that it may just have a minimal impact to the btc's price. But I am one of those believers that it will skyrocketed soon.
There are two sides of the halving. While many are hyping up around the anticipation that it would peak once more, miners on the other hand are planning on quitting being a miner because their profit is effectively reduced by 50%.
The price increases because of FOMO, and investors don't want to get left behind because they all expect the halving would increase the price. Thus, we see a bullish run every halving, a combination of hype and demand-supply idea.
After the previous halving everything was not that positive either. People keep saying that it pushed the price up, but let's look at some facts. July 9th, 2016 was the day when the halving occurred. The price was $577. On June 17th it was $750, but it went to $591 five days after that. It was not until the end of November that the price climbed back to $750. Let's not forget that this wasn't anywhere near BTC ATH of $1121 from 2013. The new ATH was not reached before February of 2017 which is 7 months after the halving event. What I am saying is that it might take months if not more after till Bitcoin reaches the new ATH, and there's nothing keeping it from not reaching it in a long while. So maybe we should not keep our hopes up. The price increases because of FOMO, and investors don't want to get left behind because they all expect the halving would increase the price. Thus, we see a bullish run every halving, a combination of hype and demand-supply idea.
The title of the thread is quite misleading. Bitcoin won't become scarce. Supply will still be increasing after halving but the increase in supply will slow down. In other words, we can say inflation of Bitcoin will decrease.
I don't think volatility has anything to do with supply. It is rather effected by adoption. If the supply will be distributed among greater mass then the price will stabilize automatically. Change in the supply won't change the volatility, rather I believe volatility increases after halving.
- And other reason is because of the volatility of bitcoin that could be easily impacted because of this event. Bitcoin is known to be bullish anytime, even with just understanding its graph if it is overbought or oversold. Price could be driven very fast because of this reason, what more if a very big event that is anticipated by many becomes closer to happen.
I don't think volatility has anything to do with supply. It is rather effected by adoption. If the supply will be distributed among greater mass then the price will stabilize automatically. Change in the supply won't change the volatility, rather I believe volatility increases after halving.
Okay that aside , I do not believe in the concept of bitcoins being scarce , because if it starts getting scarce we can still divide it into small small units like we still do , this will not affect anything honestly. If someone has to buy for 10$ , he can still buy for 10$ .
Scarcity is actually a good thing , it will more bitcoins more valuable and I think every investor can already see the big opportunity that is right before them .
Scarcity is actually a good thing , it will more bitcoins more valuable and I think every investor can already see the big opportunity that is right before them .
Why do people still seem to believe that bitcoin will become more scarce after a halving?
I'm wondering that myself. And even with the cap set at 21 million coins, we still have a long ways to go before we reach that, so bitcoin will technically be becoming less scarce right up until the last bitcoin is mined. I wish either people would learn what a block reward halving really is or at least stop misstating the facts like OP did.But hell yeah, upcoming halving! I don't know what effect if any it's going to have on the market, but the last two seemed to have done good things, at least temporarily--or even permanently (and I hate to use that term here) if you consider that bitcoin is now over $9k and it was far, far below that before the last two halvings. I'm curious to see what happens in any event.
Scarcity will depend on the market, not production. Production has smoothly been slowing in the previous halvings, but most bitcoins are already in the market so things are not changing much, except for miners that will earn less as it has occurred in the previous halvings (mining is less profitable).
For miners you could say they will learn 50%, only if the price remained the same. So If the base was 7.5k, and after halving it remained at 7.5k, then sure, 50%. But it is my opinion that the price will be something like 10k, then they will be earning 25% less than before, not 50%.
In any case production of bitcoin at this point is not the main source, the market is. People willing to part with them or not, is what decides the price in the market, and of course people willing to acquire them. Price is always the result of supply and demand, with supply being the vast majority coins that already exist (18m/21m remember?)
In the first decade of Bitcoin's life, most coins have already been produced, and now production is minuscule and is getting microscopic. It simply doesn't affect price anymore because so little are being made in mining, and even less afterwards.
Its all going according to plan, very smoothly.
~snip~
Regardless of what you expect people, there is a clear effect, when the reward is reduced only by economic law should demand increase, supply at the time will decrease, speculation by many analysts can stay there, perhaps the effect It is not immediate, the effect may be much later, because I think that the Fundamentals are what make the market move, after the emotions and plans that are of the Strong Hands, if we go to the stock-to-flow model, It is very real, and the best thing is that it is a model that can be established as the most valid, anyone who knows this is expected to have some BItcoin in Hodl, it is the most intelligent, because anything can happen in the market.
Historically before every halving there has been a small Bull run. I expect the same to happen this time too. But, if you are talking about big price jump then that should happens next year.
In 2016 before halving there was a small Bull run but, the actual price rise happened in 2017.
In 2016 before halving there was a small Bull run but, the actual price rise happened in 2017.
I can’t understand a bit why halving is considered a certain means against bitcoin inflation, although in essence halving is necessary for the network to work in order to maintain the total number of bitcoins. But nevertheless, each of us knows that Bitcoin exists only 21 million, that is, its quantity is limited, and unlike the Central Bank, which can print its national currency and thereby provoke inflation in the country, Bitcoin cannot be extracted more than there is on really. Based on this, it turns out that we all expect the next halving of the miner's reward, which from 12.5 bitcoins will be reduced to 6.25 bitcoins.
- First, the reason why market price of bitcoin will increase relies on the basic principle of demand and supply. Since the reward for miners will be cut in half, they might sell at higher price, driving the worlds market price of bitcoin to soar way up high.
- And other reason is because of the volatility of bitcoin that could be easily impacted because of this event. Bitcoin is known to be bullish anytime, even with just understanding its graph if it is overbought or oversold. Price could be driven very fast because of this reason, what more if a very big event that is anticipated by many becomes closer to happen.
These aren't some rules that are set in stone, and this is a very public knowledge, so it's very likely to be already priced in (though there's a question to what extent).
As for miners - they don't determine the price, they only follow it, so the argument that they will sell later is wrong.
About volatility - it works both ways, Bitcoin tends to be quite unexpected, and now everyone expects a bull run, so it might not happen or be delayed or be smaller than people expect.
Actually, I don't think it's the most anticipated event in Bitcoin at all -- at least not outside the speculation circle.
I was around in the last halving at it was a pretty big deal then, sure, but that's because probably most people and new users like myself at the time didn't realise until we saw it ourselves this was what happened. The hoo-ha died down after a while, and people still talked about $1k like it was a dream.
This halving's different because it's been well-publicised for years.
I was around in the last halving at it was a pretty big deal then, sure, but that's because probably most people and new users like myself at the time didn't realise until we saw it ourselves this was what happened. The hoo-ha died down after a while, and people still talked about $1k like it was a dream.
This halving's different because it's been well-publicised for years.
I have been seen on this forum many people have noise and talking about Bitcoin halving come. IMO, if the previous halving event was successfully climbing exponentially, there is also have a big chance that on this event Bitcoin price will start surging in the market. Many of us expect the skyrocketing through this upcoming Bitcoin halving stage.
The fixed supply of Bitcoin(21 million) as a scarce asset will occur after the halving will effectively be done and it will surely affect the Bitcoin price with the unpredictable time frame. Yes, we are so close but we are still clueless when the skyrocketing will happen. Before, it took almost a year and an all-time wave at the price of $20k in December 2017, one year after the halving occurred.
The fixed supply of Bitcoin(21 million) as a scarce asset will occur after the halving will effectively be done and it will surely affect the Bitcoin price with the unpredictable time frame. Yes, we are so close but we are still clueless when the skyrocketing will happen. Before, it took almost a year and an all-time wave at the price of $20k in December 2017, one year after the halving occurred.
Halving I believe will definitely lead to the increase in the price of bitcoin because miners will be unwilling to sell low because they won't be getting bitcoin that cheap any longer and the difficulty level is expected to correspondingly increase. Too many reasons to be selfish with your bitcoin.
For me, it does not all about Bitcoin miners will be the player here. But you have a point here, some miners will for sure hold some Bitcoins rather than selling it or they will stop mining anymore Bitcoins since the Bitcoin rewards will be less for the upcoming Bitcoin block halving.Additionally, here is the website for the upcoming Block halving of Bitcoin.
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
That is a countdown in which you can see how many days/hours/minutes left before the halving and some latest information about Bitcoin.
Why do people still seem to believe that bitcoin will become more scarce after a halving?
I'm wondering that myself. And even with the cap set at 21 million coins, we still have a long ways to go before we reach that, so bitcoin will technically be becoming less scarce right up until the last bitcoin is mined. I wish either people would learn what a block reward halving really is or at least stop misstating the facts like OP did.But hell yeah, upcoming halving! I don't know what effect if any it's going to have on the market, but the last two seemed to have done good things, at least temporarily--or even permanently (and I hate to use that term here) if you consider that bitcoin is now over $9k and it was far, far below that before the last two halvings. I'm curious to see what happens in any event.
Why do people still seem to believe that bitcoin will become more scarce after a halving?
The supply of BTC will still continually increase regardless of whether or not there is a halving. After the halving, the rate of emission of new BTCs simply slow down - but that does not mean that all of a sudden previously minted BTCs will disappear out of thin air or anything of that sort.
People need to realise that bitcoin is disinflationary, not deflationary. It's one of the things that are grossly miscontrued by bitcoin naysayers.
The supply of BTC will still continually increase regardless of whether or not there is a halving. After the halving, the rate of emission of new BTCs simply slow down - but that does not mean that all of a sudden previously minted BTCs will disappear out of thin air or anything of that sort.
People need to realise that bitcoin is disinflationary, not deflationary. It's one of the things that are grossly miscontrued by bitcoin naysayers.
We are all expectant of the halving and this will launct us into bull run, bitcoin may actually appear scare and this is because the price will increase. This will not be in favor of the miners as they will not want to sell low at that time. We are all familiar with this pattern and we have to prepare for it to maximize profit, it does not concern the miners alone. Even the investors.
Halving I believe will definitely lead to the increase in the price of bitcoin because miners will be unwilling to sell low because they won't be getting bitcoin that cheap any longer and the difficulty level is expected to correspondingly increase. Too many reasons to be selfish with your bitcoin.
halving doesn't make bitcoin "more scarce", bitcoin is already as scarce as it gets. halving only slows down the production rate..
Basically you are correct at this fact, but the thought is to make people feel that bitcoin is getting scarce when in fact, it is already limited in supply in the very first place. So, with the bitcoin halving occurrence, people will see the opportunity to buy more because they will feel that bitcoin is hard to get, and the way we should really understand that bitcoin is increasing in its value.
There are two sides of the halving. While many are hyping up around the anticipation that it would peak once more, miners on the other hand are planning on quitting being a miner because their profit is effectively reduced by 50%.
If the price of Bitcoin will rise before the halving will occur, miners will think twice or thrice if they will continue to mine or not. Yes the Bitcoin amount will be reduce but if the price increases, it will be the same for them. Lets just wish that Bitcoin will not go below the price where most of the miners will stay profitable. The price increases because of FOMO, and investors don't want to get left behind because they all expect the halving would increase the price. Thus, we see a bullish run every halving, a combination of hype and demand-supply idea.
TBH, they are just FOMO'ing because in the past 2 halvings of Bitcoin, its price increased and pumped but if you will see its price movement it rose up but after few weeks it went down too to make a correction. A bullish run when halving comes is normal already since it happened within the past 2 but I also expect that after halving, price will dump. 
Is there demand for permanent price increase, or is it going to just peak again. any thoughts?
Nobody knows. Remember, the peak price of ~18K has never been achieved again since the Bitcoin boom in 2017.
But surely as the miner rewards decrease, there's gonna be larger demands and hence, an increase in price.
halving doesn't make bitcoin "more scarce", bitcoin is already as scarce as it gets. halving only slows down the production rate..
Basically you are correct at this fact, but the thought is to make people feel that bitcoin is getting scarce when in fact, it is already limited in supply in the very first place. So, with the bitcoin halving occurrence, people will see the opportunity to buy more because they will feel that bitcoin is hard to get, and the way we should really understand that bitcoin is increasing in its value.
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