Topic: $10,000 when? - page 10. (Read 51351 times)

and btw, tcp/ip v4 has the fatal flaw too, namely extremely inadequate addressing space, known since 30 years ago. you know what? we learned to live with that instead of replacing it with a superior tech. because expensive to replace everything. with every passing day, it is less and less likely that bitcoin will ever be replaced.

You asked about fundamental issues.  I gave you a list.
The correct response would be to thank me, but instead you chose to avoid the issue by claiming that they'll be addressed in due time.

Oh no, you are confusing idea with an implementation. There were hundreds network protocol implementations, anybody can take the idea of "how do I package the data and send it over the wire", but only one is the true king; others found their niches. It applies to bitcoin perfectly - there will be only one true blockchain, and there will be many niche cryptos, but it is already impossible to dethrone bitcoin - it has rooted too deep.

AOL had nothing to do with tcp/ip or internet, it was a user-facing service built on top of the protocol. Say MtGox or coinbase.

I never said you did.

I'm arguing that your claim will appear similar in hindsight 10-20 years from now.

I never said the internet would never scale in 1992...

Doesn't take much foresight to imagine all those problems being solved in due time. You people sound like those who were saying the internet would never scale in 1992.

-difficult to use for non-techies
-obscenely high block reward (inflation rate)
-slow confirm time necessitating cludgy workarounds
-blockchain bloat

Just to name a few.


Bitcoin (the blockchain you're invested in) is not TCP/IP, it's more like America Online.  Huge now, but it doesn't own the sourcecode/Bitcoin protocol.  Just like other service providers started using TCP/IP, other coins can use the Bitcoin protocol.

A few of the more serious issues are:
Evolving away from Peer to Peer.  The trend to larger and larger ASIC farms increasingly controlled by a fewer and fewer.
Block Chain Size
Transactions per second

Do you Mean TCP/IP V4 or TCP/IP V6?

Quoted from this site.  http://www.tcpipguide.com/free/t_InternetProtocolVersion6IPv6IPNextGenerationIPng.htm

"Since 1981, TCP/IP has been built on version 4 of the Internet Protocol. IPv4 was created when the giant, world-wide Internet we take for granted today was just a small experimental network. Considering how much the Internet has grown and changed over the course of two decades, IPv4 has done its job admirably. At the same time, it has been apparent for many years that certain limitations in this venerable protocol would hold back the future growth of both Internet size and services if not addressed.

Due to the key role that IP plays, changing it is no simple feat. It means a substantial modification to the way that nearly everything in TCP/IP operates. However, even though we find change difficult, most of us know that it is necessary. For the last several years, development of a new version of IP has been underway, officially called Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) and also sometimes referred to as IP Next Generation or IPng. IPv6 is poised to take over from IPv4, and will be the basis for the Internet of the future."

Yes, you're right that Satoshi ain't developing it coz he gave birth to Bitcoins and we, the common people have adopted, developed and are running it currently... So, backed by people like us only, we need to take the responsibility of either having BTC as the number one cryptocurrency as it's the "PARENT" of all that are coming currently, or will need something more out of the code Satoshi gave us, with some different value of the same thing...

We need to make it possible for each and every person in the world know and adopt this protocol in their lives and take advantage of it.

What fundamental issues?

You are greatly underestimating the force of network effect and protocols.

TCP/IP is one thing that has yet to be replaced by a 2.0.

I would argue that it is very likely that bitcoin will be succeeded by a superior crypto currency.  Its a questions of when not if.  Everything evolves and I cant think of a single thing that was not replaced by a 2.0.  If "Satoshi" was still actively developing bitcoin I would expect it to retain its dominate position for quite some time.  He is not.  And he left pretty early after its birth.  I don't think bitcoin is addressing its fundamental issues quick enough to not be replaced in the not so distant future.

Because the folks who think that way are down in the trenches watching all the day to day dumps and rises and find it very easy to forget there's a big, wide world out there that might just wake up to what they're obsessing over.

I think Bitcoin will easily reach $10,000 one day, may not be for a few years as nobody can predict when mass adoption will occur. The only way btc wont reach the moon is if it's succeeded by a superior crypto currency (not very likely imho).

Why do people think that it's impossible for BTC to reach there? Not only limited to such factors as %s of gold, forex, stocks, equities, etc., but we must not forget that whenever the stagnancy of either miners or BTC will take place, some huge longs or shorts will take place for sure...

Even I hate it when someone says it's impossible as I'm too a firm believer that it will reach that for sure... Winklevoss brothers ain't much fools to say that BTC will be $1,00,000 one day...

That's the way I like to look at it, few percent of gold, few percent of reserve, few percent of forex, few percent of ecommerce, few percent of bricks and mortar commerce, few percent of the 1%'s stash (Remembering that come 1st Jan Swiss banks have to report holdings!) any ONE of those quickly runs into hundreds of billions.

At the moment, I think we have the fundamentals to sustain 2500ish, of course when the market realises that, it will overshoot quite a lot, people may buy at 10k because they think it's good for 12K looking at the uptrend.... *poof* and it's gone, yoyo back down, pull up around 1000-1500, and level in the 2000s... then we get all antsy for months again saying "when's it gonna go back to 10k where it should be" and meanwhile it's building the fundamentals for the next round of crazy... it's gonna take a few years before we've got "stable" stable. It will take chunks of some markets practically overnight... then meet resistance, and just chip away at them at a small percent a year.

Yes I made a simple math error.  I had excel open working on something else and copy paste failed me.  Corrected.  Doesn't change my point that that level is not realistic or sustainable.  dinofelis offers the only scenarios remotely plausible where this could happen.

You can have an idea what are the conditions for bitcoin to reach $10,000.- per coin.  
If you consider bitcoin as a monetary unit, then it would mean a market cap of $150 billion grossly, which represents about 3% of the market cap of USD (M2 money).  That's not an unreasonable target for bitcoin to reach 3% of the US money market.
It is about a third of the illegal drugs market worldwide.

You can also see it otherwise.  $150 billion is about 2% of the gold market cap.

I think you made a slight mistake in your calculation: 36 million per day means 13 billion per year, not 493.  The inflation rate today is somewhat less than 10% per year.  That is still problematic as it is still much higher than the monetary inflation of most big fiat currencies: for the moment, it is bitcoin which is by large the most inflated currency.

So if bitcoin becomes a success on the few percent level in the gold market or the money market, $10 000, - is reasonable.

On the other hand, you do not do that overnight.  In order for 3% of the US economy to be paid in bitcoin, will take a certain time.  And it has to be really in bitcoin, not just "using bitcoin a few hours between buying the coins, spending them, and the merchand trading them back into fiat".
It means: being paid in bitcoin each month, keeping bitcoin as one's salary, and spending it at the groceries.

Not yet.  But if bitcoin is to become somewhat of a monetary success, a few percent of the market would be the minimum one would expect, no ?

On the other hand, a surge to $10,000.- cannot be stable if the fundamentals (a few percent of the gold share, a few percent of the US economy) are not there, or are not in sight.  So that is not sustainable.  If ever there is a pump to $10.000,- it will for sure be followed by a huge crash.   But, apart from a massive market manipulation, I wonder who would be the idiots to buy at $10.000,- in the coming years.  Or even to buy at a few $1000.- as long as a single percent of the market share is not in sight.

Who told you math? you are off by a factor of 50!

Yeah... it really pisses me off. These fucking idiots must hate money