[1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff] - page 361.

conspirosphere.tk

legendary

Activity: 2352

Merit: 1064

Bitcoin is antisemitic

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on October 03, 2011, 01:53:49 PM

Quote from: conspirosphere.tk on October 03, 2011, 01:02:43 PM

Or, what are the chances that we could mine forever for nothing at this rate?

Thus forever is a somewhat useless timeframe.

With 40GH/s & current difficulty the odds of not finding a block in given amount of time:
1 week - 1 in 28
1 month - 1,606,584
1 year - 1 in 3,200,056,361,226,270,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (rounded)
etc

Thanks, I was sort of joking. But since we are already beyond the 1in28 ballpark one should not discard worse scenarios out of hand.

DeathAndTaxes

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1079

Gerald Davis

Quote from: conspirosphere.tk on October 03, 2011, 01:02:43 PM

Or, what are the chances that we could mine forever for nothing at this rate?

Forever is an infinite amount of time. Given our chance on each hash is not 0% then we can never mine forever without finding a block at this rate or any rate (infinity * anything other than 0 > 0)

Thus forever is a somewhat useless timeframe.

With 40GH/s & current difficulty the odds of not finding a block in given amount of time:
1 week - 1 in 28
1 month - 1,606,584
1 year - 1 in 3,200,056,361,226,270,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (rounded)
etc

Simplified as time-frame increases the probability of remaining unlucky enough to avoid a block rapidly approaches 0. Still there is always a non-zero chance of never finding another block (for this pool or any pool) it just quickly becomes a very small chance.

conspirosphere.tk

legendary

Activity: 2352

Merit: 1064

Bitcoin is antisemitic

My previous pool has a monthly giveaway contest, where miners can win (ATI cards) even according to the new subscribers under their link:
http://www.bitcoinpool.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=272

I dunno how they finance this, maybe adsense on your site could help (like btcguild has).
Just trying to help with my 2 btcents...

DrHaribo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1034

Needs more jiggawatts

Quote from: conspirosphere.tk on October 03, 2011, 01:02:43 PM

Maybe you could mix the signature and the promotion in an affiliation system, where for example if the apportion from new subscribers under an affiliate is, let's say >10 GHs per week, your affiliate gains 1 BTC. (So your pool would be spammed to the frontiers of the Internets).

Yes, it's something to think about. But I don't want to force users to donate a percentage of their income to the person who recruited them. And I couldn't afford to pay this out of my own money for long. I'll give it some thought, though.

Quote from: conspirosphere.tk on October 03, 2011, 01:02:43 PM

BTW: could the CDF in the statistics be >100%??? Or, what are the chances that we could mine forever for nothing at this rate?

No, it will never be 100% certain that you create a block. It could even happen that DeepBit from now and 200 years into the future doesn't create a single block, even with 40% of the hashing power the whole way. It's just very very unlikely. CDF never gets to 100, it just goes to 99.99999999.. with more and more 9s Wink

The chance that we go 30 days without getting a block, at 47 Ghps is 0.000005% - I hope that won't happen Wink

conspirosphere.tk

legendary

Activity: 2352

Merit: 1064

Bitcoin is antisemitic

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on October 02, 2011, 01:41:37 PM

I think a dynamic signature graphic would be more effective.

i.e. "I am earning a 5% bonus on Bitminer @ 2186 MH/s and you can too!" Grin

Maybe you could mix the signature and the promotion in an affiliation system, where for example if the apportion from new subscribers under an affiliate is, let's say >10 GHs per week, your affiliate gains 1 BTC. (So your pool would be spammed to the frontiers of the Internets).

BTW: could the CDF in the statistics be >100%??? Or, what are the chances that we could mine forever for nothing at this rate?

DrHaribo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1034

Needs more jiggawatts

Chance that we find one or more blocks within a 24-hour period:

With 40 Ghps: 38%
With 50 Ghps: 45%
With 60 Ghps: 51%
With 80 Ghps: 61%
With 100 Ghps: 70%
With 150 Ghps: 83%
With 200 Ghps: 91%

Chance to find nothing for 7 days:
With 30 Ghps: 8.2%
With 40 Ghps: 3.6%
With 50 Ghps: 1.5%
With 60 Ghps: 0.7%

(At the current difficulty)

P4man, nice looking banner

Guess you won't mind if I use it in my signature here?

I will make dynamic sigs later showing GH/s and such... it's on my list Wink

DeathAndTaxes

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1079

Gerald Davis

Quote from: P4man on October 03, 2011, 09:22:29 AM

homepage, then click live stats at the top.

Woot. #5. Kinda cool. In most pools 2GH doesn't get you in the top 50.
Might make that 6GH soon, but not ready to move all my other rigs over just yet.

P4man

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on October 03, 2011, 08:05:44 AM

Where do you see a top 10.

homepage, then click live stats at the top.

DeathAndTaxes

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1079

Gerald Davis

Quote from: P4man on October 03, 2011, 01:40:35 AM

Good idea.

[sarcasm]
How about" I havent earned anything for the the last 7d 10H 42 minutes on bitminter. And so can you"[/sarcasm]

On a more serious note, nice to see Fefox in that top 10. 9HG/s, wow. Welcome aboard!.

Where do you see a top 10.

Also glad to get some more "big guns". Pushing 47GH/s this morning. That should mean on average a block every 2 days. If we can get up to 100GH it would really take the sting out of this long blocks.

P4man

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

First attempt:

P4man

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Good idea.

[sarcasm]
How about" I havent earned anything for the the last 7d 10H 42 minutes on bitminter. And so can you"[/sarcasm]

On a more serious note, nice to see Fefox in that top 10. 9HG/s, wow. Welcome aboard!.

DeathAndTaxes

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1079

Gerald Davis

I think a dynamic signature graphic would be more effective.

i.e. "I am earning a 5% bonus on Bitminer @ 2186 MH/s and you can too!" Grin

P4man

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Another thought.. we need a banner/signature. Seems like most posters in this thread dont have on, we might as well advertise our pool.
Do we have any graphic talent reading this?

P4man

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

DrHaribo,

You may want to reconsider your promotion. I obviously cant speak for anyone but myself, but if Im mining here, its not because of the 6-11% more bitcoins. Its because I like the software, because I like diversity in pools (2 or 3 mega pools is a bad thing for bitcoin IMO), and frankly because you seem like a nice guy.

If others are like me, they would rather see the bitcoins you are spending to attract some bigger miners and increase our hashrate, thereby reduce the volatility. The ~8% seems insiginificant compared to the volatility (even though in the long run it obviously should pay off).

Just thinking, maybe you should offer some fixed bitcoins to any new miner joining the pool for say a month. Like 1BTC per GH mining a month. If that gets you 50GH extra even if just for a month (and yes, cost you 50BTC), it might be enough to lure in others too that are now scared away by the volatility.

As far as Im concerned, use my BTC promotion for such a goal. Ill even toss in a few bitcoins of my own.

DrHaribo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1034

Needs more jiggawatts

As P4man said, with blocks 1 through 18 we have on average been slightly lucky. After the current block the average will be slightly unlucky. We are staying pretty close to 50% CDF on average.

The unlucky blocks are very frustrating in a pool with low hashrate. That's why many left this pool and the hashrate stayed relatively low. We now have 807 members, and obviously they are not all mining here now. I think the hashrate is the biggest reason for that.

I strongly doubt there are any bugs with building blocks. When the pool server gets its hands on a proof of work that can create a block, it logs that fact immediately. The last such message in the logs was when block #18 was created. Also, an average CDF around 50% indicates everything is fine.

It helps a bit that our pool hashrate is going up while the difficulty (and hashrate of other pools) goes down.

There are several plans lined up to improve the pool and increase the hashrate. But they all require some work (programming), so it will take time. But trust me, I'm doing my best. I hope people won't leave because others left. Once that ball starts rolling we all know where it ends. I very much appreciate everyone who are mining here today. Better times are ahead.

P4man

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Also, in 4 or 5 days ( I think) difficulty is most likely going to drop again significantly:

so seeing miners leave in droves makes me happy

P4man

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: FalconFour on October 02, 2011, 06:21:20 AM

Isn't there some possibility that there's a bug in the miner server code that could be causing it to "miss" solutions to the block? It's just VERY unlikely that we could be consistently hitting either 90+% or 20-% CDF, which I'd imagine should settle somewhere around 50%. Quite frankly, my mining is turning into a complete waste of time sitting in this pool that's solving no blocks (and when it does, I get a paltry little table-scrap share for how long I've sat mining it)...

Bluntly, it's getting just really fucking frustrating seeing that nobody's acknowledged the possibility, investigated, nor explained the absurdly low block-finds in this pool...

I feel you pain, and shared your concern. But then I did the math. If I average all the CDFs so far, I get 49.15%. If anything, so far this pool has on average been "lucky". Just not lately

.

I admit having been tempted to move at least one machine to a larger pool to get some consistency, but then I know for sure, after I did that, the next blocks on bitminter will have like 15 CDF and Ill bang my head against the wall. Also, joining a larger pool does give you consistency, but lets not kid ourselves, the daily or even weekly payout from one or two machines is still ridiculously low. Its only somewhat tangible if you look at it over many months, and in that sense, the current dry spell is insignificant. So Im keeping the faith, the next 5 blocks will be found within a week, I can feel it Cheesy

.

conspirosphere.tk

legendary

Activity: 2352

Merit: 1064

Bitcoin is antisemitic

Unless the pool's hashrate goes up substantially, I fear that mining here is going to be a losing proposition like buying lotto tickets.
"Long term" is late, when you mine for a week for nuthin.

FalconFour

full member

Activity: 176

Merit: 100

Isn't there some possibility that there's a bug in the miner server code that could be causing it to "miss" solutions to the block? It's just VERY unlikely that we could be consistently hitting either 90+% or 20-% CDF, which I'd imagine should settle somewhere around 50%. Quite frankly, my mining is turning into a complete waste of time sitting in this pool that's solving no blocks (and when it does, I get a paltry little table-scrap share for how long I've sat mining it)...

Bluntly, it's getting just really fucking frustrating seeing that nobody's acknowledged the possibility, investigated, nor explained the absurdly low block-finds in this pool...

P4man

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

Quote from: Digigami on October 02, 2011, 04:12:37 AM

Are you taking into account the changes in the total pool hash rate?

I've had a steady hashrate over the last 10 shifts, but since the total hashrate has gone up, the shifts go by faster and I have fewer shares per shift as a result..

Good point. Seems like the single card results I was looking at, indeed the pools hash rate was substantially lower. I was looking mostly at the "your score" column, but clearly my score goes down as hashrate goes up, hence no doubling

. I guess Ill have to add a third card Cheesy

Cant wait for our luck to turn though. Seems like we are headed to another 90+% CDF

Topic: [1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff] - page 361. (Read 837180 times)